Terry McLaurin

McLaurin remains the clear No. 1 receiver in Washington after Jahan Dotson's second-year breakout in 2023 failed to materialize. The 2022 first-round pick finished south of his rookie-year totals for yards and TDs, while McLaurin (barely) reached 1,000 yards for a fourth straight year. The 28-year-old has been somewhat frustrating despite that measure of consistency, as he's never reached 1,200 yards and hasn't scored more than five TDs since his rookie season. Subpar QB play may be more to blame than McLaurin himself, though a truly dominant No. 1 receiver might earn larger target shares even if the per-target efficiency left something to be desired. Last year, we saw problems in both regards, with McLaurin right around his usual raw number of targets (130) despite playing in an offense that led the league in passes. His 21.5 percent target share was a career low, and if you only include his active games the number has curiously dropped a bit with each passing season, starting from a high-water mark of 26.9 percent in his 2019 rookie campaign. McLaurin also finished 2023 with career lows for yards per catch (12.7) and per target (7.6), and with an 11.4 aDOT not far from his career mark of 12.2. The good news is that there's still a late-breakout argument, thanks to the Commanders bringing in a new coaching staff and drafting QB Jayden Daniels second overall. To the naked eye, McLaurin still looks like the same guy who ran a 4.35 40 at 208 pounds at the 2019 Combine and then put up 919 yards and seven TDs in 14 games as a rookie. Washington might be a tough situation efficiency-wise again, but we'll be fully out of excuses if the target share portion doesn't at least improve.