Stefon Diggs

Viewed as one of the safest options on draft boards at this time last year, Diggs had become one of the more polarizing players for 2024 even before the Bills traded him to Houston in early April. He's now looking at top-notch target competition from Texans WRs Nico Collins and Tank Dell, after a mega-slump in the second half of 2023 left Diggs with his worst season-long stat line in four years with the Bills. His nosedive was unexpected, given that the first nine weeks of 2023 were perhaps the most productive stretch of his career (7.8 catches for 92.7 yards and 0.78 TDs on 10.8 targets). The rest of the Bills offense disappointed, however, so the team fired OC Ken Dorsey after Week 10 and replaced him with Joe Brady. Including the playoffs, Diggs had one TD in nine games under Brady and just two performances of more than 52 yards. His 27.3 percent target share in that stretch was ninth in the league and right in line with his 2020-22 usage, but the efficiency nosedived (5.2 YPT) and Buffalo ran the ball more often. That last part shouldn't be an issue in Houston with QB C.J. Stroud now surrounded by arguably the best group of pass catchers in the league. Even so, Diggs is looking at a major plunge in team share stats and is unlikely to match his 10-target-per-game Buffalo usage even if he's taking his slice from a huge passing-game pie. The Texans have TE Dalton Schultz and RB Joe Mixon projecting for a decent number of targets, in addition to Diggs, Dell and Collins competing for the WR looks.

Each of Diggs' three years in Buffalo has resulted in more receiving yards and more catches than any of his five seasons in Minnesota. Last year, he had a career high for touchdowns and his second-most yards, rebounding from a 2021 in which his volume remained plentiful but his efficiency took a hit. Overall, the three years in Buffalo have yielded averages of 112.7 catches for 1,396.3 yards and 9.7 touchdowns, with the Bills' offense otherwise relying on complementary guys like WR Gabriel Davis and TE Dawson Knox, both of whom demand some respect from defenses without seriously threatening Diggs' volume. The same can probably be said of 2022 fifth-round pick Khalil Shakir, a promising prospect who will jockey with free-agent signings Trent Sherfield and Deonte Harty for playing time as the WR3. Diggs turns 30 in November and could start to slow soon, but there were no signs of it last season and no offseason transactions to threaten his consistent volume in the range of 9-10 targets per game.

Diggs' second year in Buffalo didn't quite match his first, but he scored two more touchdowns in 2021 and still finished top 8 among WRs in PPR and standard scoring. The biggest difference, statistically, was his catch rate, with Diggs dropping from a career-high 76.5 percent in 2021 to the second-lowest mark of his career in 2022 (62.8 percent). His average target depth rose, but only from 10.1 yards to 11.1, and he actually had three fewer drops (yet 24 fewer catches) on only two fewer targets. Part of that is simply regression to the mean, and another part is a less accurate season from Josh Allen, whose completion percentage dropped from 69.2 in 2020 to 63.3. Of course, Allen was still one of the top QBs in the league, and he played his best football in the playoffs with nine TD passes in two games. Diggs should again benefit from superb team context in 2022, though it perhaps takes a hit with former OC Brian Daboll moving on to the Giants. The Bills hope it'll be a smooth transition under in-house promotion Ken Dorsey, who likely could have landed another coordinator job. Other than that, Diggs could have a bit more competition for targets, with Gabriel Davis replacing Emmanuel Sanders as the No. 2 receiver and Jamison Crowder taking over for Cole Beasley in the slot. It's a well-rounded group of receivers, and still one where Diggs is the top dog.

We knew Diggs was a good player from his Minnesota days, but it was hard to see him blowing up in the passing-game wasteland that was Buffalo. Not only was it an outdoor, cold-weather venue, but third-year QB Josh Allen was more of an athlete than a polished quarterback, and Diggs had competition for targets from both John Brown and Cole Beasley. Fast forward 16 weeks, and Diggs, buoyed by a pass-heavy offense and MVP-candidate passer, led the NFL with 127 catches (6th all-time) and 1,535 yards while hauling in eight TDs. At 6-0, 191, and with 4.46 speed, Diggs can get down the field, but his elite quickness, tight route running and good hands set him apart. While Diggs couldn’t replicate the absurd 12.0 YPT from his final season in Minnesota, he posted an impressive 9.2 YPT (8th) on a league-leading 166 looks. At 27, Diggs is still in his late prime, and with Allen turning a corner, this is suddenly one of the league’s best setups. The Bills threw 68.8 percent of the time (5th), so there’s plenty to go around, and Diggs is firmly established as Allen’s top target.

On a per-play basis, Diggs had a season for the ages last season. Among the 40 receivers with at least 90 targets, Diggs' 17.9 YPC was second only to Kenny Gollday's 18.3, and his 12.0 YPT was first by a mile - a full yard more than No. 2 Chris Godwin's. Moreover, despite only 94 targets, Diggs tied for the league lead with eight catches of 40-plus yards and was tied for sixth with 20 catches of 20-plus. This was such a far cry from 2018's high-volume, low-output performance (10.0 YPC, 6.9 YPT), it's hard to accept these were back-to-back seasons from the same player. At 6-0, 191, Diggs has just average size, and his 4.46 timed speed is good but nothing special. Diggs made his living on quickness, crisp route running, reliable hands and torching the Eagles' sorry secondary in Week 6. The Vikings traded Diggs to Buffalo this offseason, so he'll ply his trade with the strong-armed but less accurate Josh Allen. The Bills were tied for 25th with only 513 passing attempts last year, and they already have a quality deep threat in John Brown, so Diggs might transition back to being an intermediate target. And with Cole Beasley lining up in the slot, Diggs' volume probably won't see too much of a spike.

If you thought Adam Thielen lived off dink-and-dunk plays, take a look at Stefon Diggs' stats - 102 catches for 1,021 yards and just 6.9 YPT, ahead of only Zay Jones, Jarvis Landry, Larry Fitzgerald and Michael Crabtree among 100-target wideouts. Diggs has good hands (only four drops), but it's easy to hang on to passes when you're standing so close to the quarterback (8.8 average depth of target). The Vikings' poor offensive line play undoubtedly impacted the play calling as both Diggs and Thielen made fewer big plays (Diggs had only 13 20-plus- and two 40-plus-yard catches on 149 targets). At 6-0, 191, with 4.46 speed, Diggs is quick and athletic, runs excellent routes and has strong ball skills - in the rare event he gets a downfield throw. He also saw 18 red-zone looks and cashed in six for scores, so he has a decent TD floor for a wideout his size. Diggs has been an efficient player in the past - 8.9 YPT in 2017 and never less than 8.0 before last year - so as long as Kirk Cousins has time to throw, we'd expect Diggs, still only 25, to improve his per-play production. (And the Vikings upgraded their interior offensive line this offseason.) Once again, Thielen is his only real competition for targets, so there should be plenty of opportunities for both.

Diggs made one of the most improbable and spectacular catches of all time to knock the Saints out of the playoffs, and his regular-season work was nothing to sneeze at, either. Despite missing two games, Diggs scored eight times and bumped up his efficiency to 8.9 YPT (9th among the league's 38 90-target WR). Part of that was due to Case Keenum taking over for the conservative Sam Bradford, and Diggs will have another competent downfield thrower in Kirk Cousins this year. At 6-0, 191, Diggs has just average size, and his 4.46 speed is good but nothing special. But Diggs is quick, runs excellent routes and has strong ball skills and reliable hands. Adam Thielen is a co-No. 1 target, and assuming Cousins and new offensive coordinator John DeFilippo don't shake things up too much, both players should share in the passing game spoils. One negative is the presence of red-zone specialist Kyle Rudolph, who had nine targets inside the 10 last year, along with a presumably healthy Dalvin Cook.

Nagging injuries derailed Diggs' second season and also opened the door for Adam Thielen to become the team's co-No. 1 target. At 6-0, 191, Diggs has only average size, but he possesses good speed (4.46 40), runs good routes and has strong ball skills. He didn't run many deep routes, however -- only three catches of 40 yards and 10 for 20 or more -- and he wasn't used heavily in the red zone (12 looks). As such, he scored only three times. While Diggs averaged a respectable 8.1 YPT, it came on only 10.8 YPC, meaning he was padding his catch percentage (and Sam Bradford's record-setting completion percentage) with short routes. Diggs worked this offseason to improve his conditioning in the interest of staying healthier and should again be one of Bradford's main targets. However, Thielen isn't going away, and the team signed Michael Floyd.

A fifth-round pick last season, Diggs rapidly ascended the Vikings' depth chart, ultimately becoming the top target in the passing game and posting four straight weeks of at least 85 yards. Unfortunately, that streak ended Week 8, and Diggs failed to eclipse even 70 yards and scored only twice during the team's last nine games. At 6-0, 195, Diggs has only average size and good speed (4.46 40). He's elusive in space, runs good routes and has strong ball skills. Despite his anemic production in the second half, Diggs heads into the season as the team's No. 1 wideout. Of course, the Vikings don't throw much (454 attempts, 32nd) and when they do they are not especially efficient (7.1 YPA, 20th.) And even though Mike Wallace is gone, Diggs could have competition from first-round pick Laquon Treadwell for targets.

A former five-star recruit, Diggs looked like a future day one or two draft pick during his freshman season at Maryland (54 catches for 848 yards and six touchdowns while scoring twice on kick returns in 11 games), but he never made much progress due to injuries and terrible quarterback play. The 2015 fifth-round draft pick has some upside as a result, but will likely be brought along slowly and may spend much of the season on the practice squad.