This article is part of our Underdog PGA series.
Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches
Purse: $20M
Winner's Share: $4M
FedEx Cup Points: 700 to the Winner
Location: Orlando, Florida
Course: Arnold Palmer's Bay Hill Club and Lodge
Yardage: 7,466
Par: 72
Previous Winners
2025 – Russell Henley
2024 – Scottie Scheffler
2023 – Kurt Kitayama
2022 – Scottie Scheffler
2021 – Bryson DeChambeau
2020 – Tyrrell Hatton
2019 – Francesco Molinari
2018 – Rory McIlroy
2017 – Marc Leishman
2016 – Jason Day
Recap: The Cognizant Classic
The field at PGA National lacked the big names that you would normally see due to it being scheduled between three Signature Events (Pebble Beach, The Genesis and the upcoming Arnold Palmer Invitational). However, what the event lacked in the star power of the entry list was made up for in spades with the storylines, none bigger than the collapse of Shane Lowry on Championship Sunday.
It looked like the tournament was Lowry's to lose. He entered Sunday at the top of the leaderboard with Austin Smotherman after the former posted a bogey-free, eight-under 63 third round, and the Irishman held a commanding lead in the final round after going six-under heading into the Bear Trap. That's where disaster struck for Lowry; he found the water not once, but twice off the tee on holes 16 and 17 and was the only player to do so for the entire tournament. Those back-to-back bogeys were back-breaking, as his three-shot lead turned into a two-shot deficit that was more than enough for 31-year-old Colombian Nico Echavarria, who finished with a 15-under cumulative score to capture his third PGA Tour tournament and vault him to sixth in the FedExCup Standings.
A number of player's strong play at PGA National earned them exemptions into this week's Arnold Palmer Invitational, including Echavarria, Smotherman (Next 10), Taylor Moore (Swing 5), Keith Mitchell (Swing 5) and Joel Dahmen (FEC). While he won't be in next week's signature event, Brooks Koepka came away from the Cognizant with his best finish (T9) in three Tour outings. The former LIV Golf defector struggled on and around the green in the first round but seemed to figure it out Friday to make the cut and ended the tournament with a 74-66-69-65 scorecard. Koepka's next Tour appearance will take place two weeks now at THE PLAYERS Championship, where he's made the cut in five of seven outings but didn't make it to the weekend in his last appearance in 2022.
Arnold Palmer Invitational Tournament Preview
This week's Signature Event is the strongest field to date, even more so than Pebble Beach and The Genesis. Every golfer in the top 20 in the OWGR will be in the field this week, headlined as always by the No. 1 and 2 golfers in Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy. Both of them have enjoyed success at Bay Hill, with McIlroy winning in 2018 and Scheffler emerging victorious twice (2022, 2024). Defending champion Russell Henley will look to become the first player since Matt Every (2014, 2015) to go back-to-back at Bay Hill. We'll also see the 2026 season debut of two of the PGA's top golfers. Sunjae Im has recovered from a wrist injury to make his first appearance since the Baycurrent Classic in October, and Justin Thomas will be in the field after recovering from microdiscectomy surgery in November. Last year's event saw Russell Henley win his fifth PGA Tour tournament in dramatic fashion after his chip-in eagle on the par-5 16th put him in front of Collin Morikawa for good.
We've seen relatively high scores through the first few Tour events of the year, but Bay Hill presents enough challenges that coming away with a par will feel like a win on some holes. That's certainly the case for each of the par-3s, all of which are longer than 200 yards. Three of those par-3s were the toughest holes on the course last year, followed by the iconic par-4 18th that features a kidney-shaped green guarded by water on the right and bunkers at the front and back, which will demand precision for those looking to round out the day on a positive note. The rough is thick and the greens will be tough to approach and maneuver. On the other hand, the par-5s will be where most of the field will look to gain strokes, with three of the four measuring less than 575 yards (as RotoWire's own Len Hochberg points out, 2021 winner Bryson DeChambeau finished with a cumulative score of 11-under par but shot 10-under on the par-5s).
You need to do a little bit of everything right to have a shot at winning at Bay Hill, but par-5 scoring, bogey avoidance on the par-3s and how players approach and putt the greens will be key to the third signature event of the year. Seeing as the field is shortened to 70 players (with at least 50 making the cut), it's even more crucial to land those late draft picks to round out your team.
Underdog Contest Overview
Underdog hosts drafts every week at three buy-in amounts; The Par 3 at $3, the featured draft at $10, and "The Sandbagger" at $100. Each entrant will be paired up with five other participants and participate in a six-man snake draft of teams made up of six players (36 total selections), with each selection on a 30-second timer. For example, the person with the first overall pick and lucky enough to get Scheffler (unless you like to live dangerously) will have to wait until 2.6 and 3.1 to make their next selections. Points are allocated to golfers based on their performance on every hole, with bonus points available for golfers who make consecutive birdies or finish a round bogey free.
First Two Rounds
Collin Morikawa (6.0 Average Draft Position)
The sting of last year's API will be forefront when Morikawa makes his way to the Bay Hill course, given what happened in the final act of last year's event. However, there shouldn't be as much pressure on his shoulders given his victory at Pebble Beach three weeks ago, which he followed up with a T7 performance at The Genesis. Morikawa ranks sixth in SG: Approach, 20th in par-5 scoring and 23rd in SG: Off-the-Tee this season, but he'll need to be better around and on the green to come away with his second Tour win of the season.
Jake Knapp (8.5 ADP)
Knapp has arguably had the best start of the season out of anyone who hasn't come away with a Tour win in 2026. He's made the cut in each of his five outings this season, finishing T11-T5-8-T8-6. He has the third-best SG: Total this season, thanks in large part to his performance on the green (fourth in SG: Putting). He's also scoring 4.17 on average on par-5s, which is best on the Tour this season. This week will be Knapp's second appearance at Bay Hill (T57 in 2024).
Nicolai Hojgaard (10.5 ADP)
Hojgaard has finished in the top-10 in back-to-back Tour outings, including a T6 at last week's Cognizant Classic thanks to his 66-65 score over the final two days of the tournament. He hasn't made the cut in each of his two appearances at Bay Hill but has the all-around game that should translate well to the course. He ranks in the top-12 in both SG: Off-the-Tee and SG: Approach, 17th in par-3 scoring and 20th in GIR this season.
Middle-Round Value
Pierceson Coody (16.5 ADP)
Coody finished in the top-20 in five of six Tour events this season, including T2 at the Farmers Insurance Open and T10 the following week at the WM Phoenix Open. He's been one of the best players off the tee this season (seventh in SG: Off-the-Tee) and also ranks fourth in GIR and 11th and 12th in par-3 and par-5 scoring, respectively. Coody's lone appearance at the API before this week was in 2023, when he finished T14 thanks in large part to his six-under 66 third round.
Kurt Kitayama (17.7 ADP)
Kitayama put on a show during the final round of The Genesis two weeks ago. Jacob Bridgeman dominated at Riviera and took down the trophy, but Kitayama made things interesting when he closed the gap during Sunday's round, but he couldn't quite close the once seemingly insurmountable gap that the former built for himself. Kitayama finished second in both SG: Off-the-Tee and SG: Approach at that Signature Event and ranks in the top 25 in both of those categories heading into Bay Hill, where he won in 2023 by one stroke over McIlroy and Harris English.
Shane Lowry (21.9 ADP)
Who doesn't love a good redemption arc around here? Lowry was spectacular for most of the weekend at last week's Cognizant Classic, which makes his collapse on the Bear Trap during the final round all the more disappointing. Even so, the 38-year-old Irishman has a prime opportunity to bounce back at Bay Hill, where he finished solo third and solo seventh in 2024 and 2025, respectively. Lowry ranks seventh in SG: Approach, 19th in SG: Putting and 20th in scrambling (including 29th in scrambling from the rough, which should help him get out of trouble should his ball find the thick Bermuda rough).
Late-Round Targets
Sepp Straka (24.3 ADP)
Straka had a nice stretch of play in February which saw him finish T18 at the WM Phoenix Open before making a late surge at Pebble to finish in a share of second. His putting has not been good this season, but Straka is one of the better players when approaching or working around the green. He didn't make the cut in each of his first four outings at Bay Hill but he managed to break through in 2024 with a T57 finish before following that up with a T5 last year.
Keith Mitchell (34.1 ADP)
Mitchell has quietly made the cut in each of his six outings this year and is coming off a T6 at the Cognizant Classic, when he went 10-under over the final two days of the tournament. He's made the cut in all five of his past appearances at the Arnold Invitational, including a T24 last year and T6 and T5 in 2019 and 2020, respectively. Mitchell ranks 13th this season in SG: Off-the-Tee, 20th in GIR and 23rd in par-3 scoring.
Patrick Rodgers (35.7 ADP)
Rodgers opened the 2026 Tour season strongly with a solo third at the Sony Open, and while he's made the cut in each of his five following outings, he hasn't finished better than T27 in any of those events. He's strong around the greens and is solid with the putter and in his approach game, but he'll need to figure things out off the tee if he wants to succeed at Bay Hill, where he's made the cut in eight of 10 outings (including T7 in 2018, T25 in 2024 and T22 in 2025).
Chris Kirk (35.9 ADP)
It hasn't exactly been a great start to the 2026 season for Kirk, who has missed the cut in four of five events and finished T52 at Pebble Beach. That said, course experience has to play a factor that transcends recent play, and it's hard to ignore that Kirk -- who got a sponsor exemption for the API -- has made the cut in 10 of 13 outings at the signature event, including T22 last year and five top-15s from 2016 to 2022.
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