This article is part of our FanDuel PGA DFS Picks series.
Arnold Palmer Invitational
Course: Bay Hill Club & Lodge (7,466 yards, par 72)
Purse: $20,000,000
Winner: $4,000,000 and 700 FedExCup Points
Tournament Preview
The first leg of the Florida Swing featured some late dramatics, and there is no lack of excitement heading into the second of the four stops in Florida during this stretch. Most of the top players elected to take last week's Cognizant Classic off to rest after two straight Signature Events. Shane Lowry looked to be well on his way to victory before making two straight double-bogeys, which allowed Nico Echavarria to claim his third career victory on the PGA Tour.
This week features the return of Bay Hill for the Arnold Palmer Invitational. As another player-hosted Signature Event, this tournament will feature a 36-hole cut -- just like The Genesis Invitational a couple weeks ago. The field of 72 elite players will be chopped down to the top 50 and ties after two rounds. Any player within 10 shots of the lead will also make the weekend. Bay Hill will be the final tune-up for these players before THE PLAYERS Championship at TPC Sawgrass -- the PGA Tour's flagship event. The Masters is also on the horizon in just over a month's time. Plenty of players will be trying to either win an event or climb into the top 50 of the OWGR by the March 30 deadline to qualify for the season's first major championship.
Scottie Scheffler -- in 2022 and 2024 -- is a two-time winner of the Arnold Palmer Invitational. A big focus for the No. 1 player will be trying to get off to better starts. His first-round scoring average so far this season is 70.5, which ranks 117th on the PGA Tour. By contrast he ranks first in Round 2 scoring average, eighth in Round 3 scoring average and second in Round 4 scoring average. Scheffler would love to put that storyline to bed this week with a solid Thursday that leads to a strong result. His T12 finish at Riviera snapped an 18-event top-10 streak on the PGA Tour.
Rory McIlroy, on the other hand, played very well at The Genesis Invitational and ultimately came up one stroke shy of forcing a playoff with Jacob Bridgeman despite starting the final round six shots behind. McIlroy is also a former winner at Bay Hill back in 2018. He has finished outside the top 25 just once in 11 starts at this tournament, and that was a T27 in 2016. Everything seems to be clicking for McIlroy who is looking to defending his title's at THE PLAYERS and The Masters over the next handful of weeks.
Last year's Arnold Palmer Invitational was a battle down the stretch between Russell Henley and Collin Morikawa. Ultimately is was Henley who would end up breaking Morikawa's heart with a chip-in for eagle on the third-to-last hole of the tournament to give him the edge. That win at Bay Hill was the highlight of Henley's best season of his career.
Two players will be making their season debuts this week. Justin Thomas who has been recovering from back surgery since mid-November, and Sungjae Im who has been fighting to come back from a wrist injury suffered in early January. For Thomas he snapped what was almost a three-year winless streak last season at the RBC Heritage. He's played Bay Hill four times before, but has never done better than a T12. For Im he is still looking for his first win on the PGA Tour since the fall of 2021. 2025 ended up being one of his worst season's on Tour as he was just 119th in SG: Total and 124th in scoring average. In this elite of a field, just getting four rounds of competition under their belt's would be a solid goal after long competitive layoffs.
Bay Hill is annually one of the most challenging courses on Tour just as Arnold Palmer wanted it to be. The course features some of the slickest greens and thickest rough players will take on all season. It has played more like a U.S. Open in recent years. Other than Scottie Scheffler who won by five strokes at 15-under-par here in 2024, the only players to do better than 10-under-par here since 2020 are Russell Henley in 2025 and Bryson DeChambeau in 2021, each shooting 11-under-par (277). The winning score was just four-under in 2020 and five-under in 2022.
The weather this week looks to be perfect, so the setup team should be able to do pretty much whatever they want to this golf course. That said, due to the recent extreme cold temperatures that the Orlando area experienced a few weeks ago, both the fairways and rough will be overseeded just as they were a week ago at PGA National. The greens, however, will still feature the firm Bermudagrass. Winds will be very predictable this week as it will consistently be in the 10-15 mph range and come out of the same direction in all four rounds. Temperatures could reach nearly into the 90s come the weekend.
Recent Champions
2025 - Russell Henley (-11)
2024 - Scottie Scheffler (-15)
2023 - Kurt Kitayama (-9)
2022 - Scottie Scheffler (-5)
2021 - Bryson DeChambeau (-11)
2020 - Tyrrell Hatton (-4)
2019 - Francesco Molinari (-12)
2018 - Rory McIlroy (-18)
2017 - Marc Leishman (-11)
2016 - Jason Day (-17)
Key Stats to Victory
- SG: Approach/GIR Percentage
- SG: Off-the-Tee/Driving Accuracy
- SG: Around-the-Green/Scrambling
- Approaches 150-200 Yards/Bogey Avoidance
Champion's Profile
Success at Bay Hill generally all comes back to where you put yourself off the tee. We've seen some monster mashers do very well here in recent years, but coming out of the short grass is going to be the most important thing. Russell Henley, Collin Morikawa and Corey Conners finished in the top 3 on the leaderboard. None of them would be considered long, but all of which would be commended for how accurate they are off the tee. The course is certainly not short at over 7,400 yards, but you will constantly be on the back foot if you have to play out of this nasty rough or the challenging fairway bunkers.
The job is not done even if you do find the fairway. Theses greens are typically always quite firm and will be tough to stop any mid-to-long iron close to the hole. Similar to some of the other recent stops like Riviera and PGA National, players typically won't be hitting a lot of wedges into holes. I'll once again be pretty interested in players who excel from 150-200 yards on approach.
We generally see a very low GIR percentage for the field at Bay Hill because of these things we've talked about. That will in turn create a lot of chances to gain or lose strokes around the greens. Last year Henley led the field in SG: Around-the-Green, Morikawa was 20-for-25 on the week in scrambling opportunities (2nd in the field), and Conners led the field in scrambling percentage. Again those were your top 3 players on the leaderboard last year.
The formula is there: Drive it in the fairway, control your iron shots in the wind and be tidy around the greens. That is how you find success these days at Bay Hill.
FanDuel Value Picks
The Chalk
Scottie Scheffler ($14,800)
Scheffler once again checks every box. This season he sits second in SG: Off-the-Tee, second in GIR percentage and ninth in SG: Around-the-Green. Scheffler also leads the Tour in putts per GIR for good measure as he continues to be a birdie machine. Scheffler boasts two victories at Bay Hill and has never finished worse than T15 in five career starts. You know he will want to silence people about the slow starts this week.
Rory McIlroy ($13,200)
You get the real sense that because of their form and history at this event, this has the feel of a potential Scheffler-McIlroy duel on Sunday. What a treat that would be. McIlroy checks in at a $1,600 discount to the World No. 1, but the Northern Irishman has been exceptional with the irons through two starts this season. McIlroy ranks first in SG: Approach, seventh in GIR percentage and ninth in proximity. He is also 19th in SG: Around and fourth in scrambling. McIlroy owns four top-3s and six top-15s in his last seven starts. He also has nine top-15s in 11 career starts at Bay Hill.
Matt Fitzpatrick ($11,400)
Bay Hill has arguably Fitzpatrick's best course on Tour throughout his career. He has racked up six top-15 finishes over his last nine starts here, including a runner-up in 2019. Fitzpatrick has made all four of his cuts this season with three top-25s. The iron play has been awesome ranking top 5 on Tour in SG: Approach, GIR percentage and proximity. He is also top 20 in SG: Off-the-Tee, total driving and driving accuracy. Fitzpatrick has not putted great this season, but he loves these Bermuda greens. He's never lost strokes here in 11 starts and has gained over a full shot per round on six different occasions, including last year when he led the field in SG: Putting.
The Middle Tier
Jake Knapp ($9,700)
This one really feels like a layup at this price. Knapp has been incredible to start the 2026 season going T11-T5-8th-T8-6th through five starts. He's really been doing everything well, hitting it a mile, filling it up on the greens and last time out at Riviera was his best approach performance of the season where he ranked sixth. Knapp has the clubhead speed to be able to survive out of this rough and he also leads the PGA Tour in par-5 scoring. The four long holes are where you will need to make a lot of your score this week given the challenge everywhere else.
Kurt Kitayama ($9,600)
Last time we saw Kitayama he was wrapping up a seven-under 64 on Sunday at The Genesis Invitational that nearly landed him in a playoff. He ranked second in both SG: Off-the-Tee and SG: Approach at Riviera, showing that his ball striking is in top-notch form. Kitayama ranks top-10 this season in scrambling and bogey avoidance, both of which will be key around Bay Hill. He would know that, obviously, as a former Arnold Palmer Invitational winner.
Adam Scott ($9,200)
Age must just be a number because Scott is hitting the ball as well as he ever has. Through four starts on the PGA Tour this season he sits third in SG: Off-the-Tee, fourth in total driving and fourth in proximity. Scott has made six starts around the globe since late November and owns a trio of top-7 finishes. The Aussie has about as much experience around Bay Hill as any player in this field and sits top 20 in both scrambling and bogey avoidance.
The Long Shots
Pierceson Coody ($8,700)
Coody has scored a top-20 finish in five of his six starts this season. The big reason for his improved consistency has been his ball striking improvements. Coody has always been a guy that can get hot with the putter, but this season he ranks seventh in SG: Off-the-Tee, 31st in SG: Approach and fourth in GIR percentage. The former Texas Longhorn standout leads the Tour in total birdies in 2026 and ranks top 12 in par-3 and par-5 scoring. Coody was T14 in his only prior start at Bay Hill.
Nicolai Hojgaard ($8,200)
Hojgaard is coming off a great final round at PGA National, where he was honestly just a couple short putts away from posting a crazy number. Nevertheless, it was still his third top-6 finish in his last four starts. Hojgaard should be built for success at Bay Hill given his ball striking prowess. This season he ranks 10th in SG: Off-the-Tee, 11th in SG: Approach and 20th in GIR percentage. The putter has also started to heat up from mid-range and it's given Hojgaard even more confidence.
Keith Mitchell ($7,400)
It feels like every year around the Florida Swing "Cashmere Keith" starts to heat up. Mitchell is coming off a strong T6 showing at PGA National which was his second top-15 finish in his last four starts. Mitchell has gone a perfect 6-for-6 this season and a perfect 5-for-5 in his career at Bay Hill, including a pair of top-6 finishes. Mitchell has long been an excellent driver of the ball, but lately his approach play has been very sharp as well. Mitchell is 16th in proximity from 175-200 yards and 20th in GIR percentage this season.
Strategy Tips This Week
Based on a Standard $60K Salary Cap
The pricing is about as spaced out as I can remember. That's what will happen when you have a short field like this and feature pricing from Scheffler ($14, 800) down to the min price at $6,000. Given the quality of this field, you are really able to build your lineup however you would like. I expect most players to either pick Scheffler or McIlroy to start their lineups, but I've honestly been able to put together some lineups I really like with both of the top-2 players in there. Other strong value options not mentioned above are Keegan Bradley ($8,500), Ryan Gerard ($8,200), Ryo Hisatsune ($7,300) and Joel Dahmen ($6,700).
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