This article is part of our Golf Picks series.
Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches Betting Preview
The PGA Tour heads to the Sunshine State for the start of the Florida Swing at this week's Cognizant Classic in the Palm Beaches. Sandwiched in-between a pair of elevated events, we have a much weaker field than usual headed to PGA National following a few late withdrawals with only eight top-50 players in the OWGR teeing-it-up, headlined by tournament favorite Ryan Gerard at 18-1. Last year, longshot Joe Highsmith (120-1) outlasted J.J. Spaun and Jacob Bridgeman by two shots for his maiden Tour victory.
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of 12:00 PM ET
Course Overview
Par 71, 7,223 yards
These are the average rankings of PGA National Champions since 2021:
- SG: Off-the-Tee: 10.2
- SG: Approach: 12.4
- SG: Around-the-Green: 28.0
- SG: Putting: 12.0
- SG: Tee-to-Green: 4.2
- Driving Distance: 31.6
- Driving Accuracy: 14.0
The transition from California to Florida brings plenty of changes with it, notably that the Florida tracks tend to have a lot of water in play and scoring is tougher as a result. PGA National is no different, with water in play on all but three holes. In addition, only the three par-5s and the 365-yard par-4 first hole played under-par last year. Well known for 'The Bear Trap,' the challenging three-hole stretch on 15-17 features a medium length par-4 with water in play off the tee and on approached sandwiched in between a pair of par-3s with water protecting the front of the green. Off the tee, players are faced with tight fairways that average 28 yards wide and the increased penalty for being offline due to all the water puts more of a premium on accuracy over distance. As we can see from the metrics above, tee to green play stands out as weaknesses will be exposed around here. In addition to well-rounded players and accurate drivers, I'll look to be targeting strong iron players from 150-200 yards as we'll see a lot of approach shots in that range.
Best Ball Strikers
These five golfers, on a per-round basis, have gained the most strokes from tee to green across their last 20 rounds:
- Nicolai Hojgaard: 1.33
- Ryan Gerard: 1.28
- Chris Kirk: 1.15
- Keith Mitchell: 1.01
- Max McGreevy: 0.97
Hojgaard didn't qualify for the first two signature events of the year, but it probably won't be much longer that the budding star is on the sidelines for them. He's flashed his form early in the year with a T22 at Torrey Pines, followed by finishing one shot out of the playoff at TPC Scottsdale. That has garnered the attention of the oddsmakers, who have him as the third choice on the board at +2150, just ahead of his twin brother Rasmus. Another player that has been in good form from tee to green is Mitchell (26-1 odds), as he led the field in the category at Torrey Pines South and has made the cut in eight consecutive events. His lone Tour victory came here in 2019, and he has made four cuts in a row at the event including a pair of top-10s.
Best at PGA National
These five players have the lowest scoring average at PGA National over the last five years (minimum eight rounds):
- Ryan Gerard: 67.9
- Shane Lowry: 68.2
- Chris Kirk: 68.7
- Austin Eckroat: 68.9
- Daniel Berger: 68.9
Gerard no longer finds himself under the radar as this week's favorite, and not only does he have form on his side, he's played well in Palm Beach Gardens with a solo fourth in his debut while never shooting over-par across eight rounds at the difficult venue. His ascension has largely been due exceptional iron play, and improvements on the greens have led to two runner-up results this year. In addition to Gerard, Kirk (48-1) also pops up on both lists as the 2023 event champion has gained strokes on approach in eight consecutive tournaments but struggles on the greens have led to inconsistent results this year. Kirk has gained strokes on the greens in three of his last five appearances here, all of which had led to top-25s.
Cognizant Classic Bets: Outright Picks
Daniel Berger (33-1)
Berger has had his fair share of success at PGA National, losing in a playoff as a rookie while also having top-5s in 2020 and 2022. Although he had a poor finish to last year, he had a T6 in Hawaii and a top-20 in Phoenix in which he led the field in SG: Approach.
Christiaan Bezuidenhout (47-1)
Outside of being one of the shortest hitters on Tour, Bezuidenhout does everything else very well. He ranked in the top-20 in SG: Around-the-Green and putting last season and does a great job of keeping the ball in play and avoiding trouble. Those are good traits to have at a difficult venue.
Matt Wallace (64-1)
Wallace's strengths of iron play and around the green (fourth in SG last year) ability should help him around here. The Englishman is streaky, but is no stranger to winning. He has five DP World Tour titles to his credit and won an alternate PGA Tour event in 2023.
Cognizant Classic Bets: Top-10 Wagers
Vince Whaley (+560)
Coming off a top-10 with Ryan Fox last week, I'll start these wagers off with Whaley, who was a respectable T32 here last year. Despite a slow start to the year, I have faith in Whaley showing the form he had last fall when he posted a pair of top-5 results.
Sam Ryder (+770)
Ryder has never missed the cut in five appearances at PGA National, notably posting top-10s in 2021 and 2022. He's made the cut in both events he's played this year and has to make the most of his limited starts. Ryder is one of the better putters in the field.
Andrew Putnam (+880)
The theme here has centered mostly around accurate drivers and good short game players, and Putnam is no different. He finished T2 at The AMEX, T11 here last year and had two top-10s last summer. In this field and price range, that's plenty good enough for me.
Cognizant Classic Bets: Head-to-Head Matchups
Thorbjorn Olesen (-118) over Alex Smalley
Statistically, Olesen is better than the perception around him - he gained shots in every strokes gained category last season and was above Tour average in driving distance and accuracy. He posted two top-10s on the DP World Tour to start the year and had three PGA Tour top-15s in the fall. I'll side with him over Smalley, who tends to be more hit-or-miss having made only 57 percent of cuts last year.
Max Homa (-108) over Mackenzie Hughes
Hughes' results leave a lot to be desired for someone that's favored in this matchup. Dating back to the PGA Championship last year, he's posted just one top-25 across 18 starts. Yikes. I'll gladly side with Homa, who has four such results during the same time frame and has started to show improvements with his driving and putting. Homa finished T20 the last time he played here back in 2019.
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