This article is part of our Golf Picks series.
Arnold Palmer Invitational Betting Preview
The third signature event of the year is upon us with this week's Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill Club and Lodge in Orlando, Florida. The second of four tournaments in the Florida Swing and the lead-in to next week's flagship event at TPC Sawgrass, we have a 72-player field with a 36-hole cut down to the top 50 plus ties (and anyone within 10 shots of the lead), headlined by tournament Scottie Scheffler (+340). Last year, Russell Henley (65-1) won by one shot over Collin Morikawa for his fifth Tour victory.
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of 12:00 PM ET Wednesday
Course Overview
Par 72, 7,466 yards
These are the average rankings of Arnold Palmer Invitational winners since 2021:
- SG: Off-the-Tee: 21.8
- SG: Approach: 12.0
- SG: Around-the-Green: 15.6
- SG: Putting: 11.0
- SG: Tee-to-Green: 5.6
- Driving Distance: 25.0
- Driving Accuracy: 30.2
Golf fans that enjoy seeing the best players in the world struggle will certainly like the action this week, with the winning score being single-digit under-par three times since 2020. The four par-5s are the only holes that didn't play over-par last year, and the par-3s are some of the toughest on Tour with three of them playing 215+. The two holes that stand out to me are the par-5 sixth hole with water protecting the entire left side, and the closing par-4 18th that has water protecting the green and played as the toughest hole in 2025. Off the tee, players are faced with fairly narrow fairways that average 31 yards wide and are surrounded by thick rough. Water comes into play on about half the holes, emphasizing the importance of ball striking. In looking at the metrics above, nothing jumps off the page, with the difficult venue testing all aspects, so I'll be targeting well rounded players. Due to the high penalty for missing fairways (water, rough, bunkers), I'm giving a boost to accurate drivers. I'll also be looking to target golfers that avoid bogeys and hit their irons well from 175-225 yards, with a lot of approach shots coming in that range.
Course History
The following players have the lowest scoring average at Bay Hill over the last five years (minimum two appearances):
- Scottie Scheffler: 70.1
- Corey Conners: 70.9
- Jordan Spieth: 71.0
- Russell Henley: 71.1
- Rory McIlroy: 71.3
It's not often we don't find anyone with an average score in the 60s, showing the difficultly of Bay Hill. At the top of the list we find a two-time API champion in Scheffler, who has finished no worse than T15 across five career trips to Orlando. After winning his first event of the year in Palm Springs, the world No.1 saw his streak of 19 top 10s come to an end at Riviera by a single shot. With that said, the last time Scheffler went three events in a row without winning, he went on to win The Open Championship by four shots. One of the longer shots on this list is Spieth (68-1), who is in via a sponsor's exemption. This will only be his fourth time playing the event, but he's already recorded a pair of top 5s. The downside is that he hasn't posted a result like that since last May, but he showed form at Riviera with a T12.
Current Form
These five golfers, on a per-round basis, have gained the most strokes from tee to green across their last 20 rounds:
- Si Woo Kim: 2.29
- Scottie Scheffler: 2.26
- Rory McIlroy: 1.75
- Collin Morikawa: 1.61
- Pierceson Coody: 1.56
There's no need to do a double-take – we have someone other than Scheffler atop a statistical list. Kim has been exceptional with his tee to green play this year which has led to three top 10s. He cooled off in the signature events, and having a week off after playing six straight events was likely much needed. He's the sixth choice on the board at 29-1 odds. Meanwhile, McIlroy appears on both lists as he's been in great form with all aspects of his game and has never finished worse than T27 across 11 trips to Bay Hill, highlighted by a win in 2018. That his him back down to single-digit odds (+980) as he looks for his first PGA Tour victory since The Masters.
Arnold Palmer Invitational Bets: Outright Picks
Xander Schauffele (+2050)
Schauffele struggled in his first two starts of the year but elevated his play in the signature events with a T19 at Pebble and a T7 at Riviera, in which he ranked third in SG: Tee-to-Green. He won the only limited event in the fall and looks to be trending in the direction to win again soon.
Hideki Matsuyama (35-1)
Matsuyama had been struggling with his driving this year but turned the corner at Riviera by hitting 70 percent of fairways – tied for second best in the field. The rest of his game has been dialed in, leading to four top-15s including a playoff loss in Phoenix.
Sepp Straka (55-1)
This is a generous price for a golfer that won twice last year including a signature event. Straka finished one shot back at Pebble Beach last month and posted a top-5 finish here a year ago. His results are inconsistent, but when he's in form, he often contends.
Arnold Palmer Invitational Bets: Placement Wagers
Collin Morikawa
Top-5 Finish: +440
Morikawa stands out as a strong fit for Bay Hill as one of the most accurate drivers and precise iron players in the world. He showed that his win at Pebble Beach was no fluke, either, following it up with a top 10 at Riviera. Morikawa was the runner-up here in 2025.
Chris Kirk
Top-10 Finish: +800
Kirk will be making his 14th appearance at Bay Hill, and his track record is solid with five top 15s over his last nine trips. His results have been subpar this year as the short game has let him down, but he's 15th in SG: Approach.
Corey Conners
Top-5 Finish: +1025
Similar to Morikawa, Conners' strengths of accurate driving and strong iron play make him an ideal course fit. That's shown in the results with five consecutive top 25s including a solo third last year. Conners historically tends to play much better during the Florida Swing.
Arnold Palmer Invitational Bets: Head-to-Head Matchups
Ludvig Aberg (-110) over Kurt Kitayama
Coming off a 2-0 week in matchups at PGA National, I'll start with Aberg, who struggled to start the year as he failed to see the weekend in the first two tournaments as he dealt with an illness. He seems to be over that, most recently posting a top 20 at Riviera in which he gained shots in every strokes gained category. He's finished no worse than T25 across three trips here. One strong showing by Kitayama in his last start shouldn't be enough to make him the favorite. He hadn't posted a top 10 in seven previous starts and missed the cut last year.
Adam Scott (-116) over Justin Rose
A matchup between the two oldest players in the field, I'll side with Scott who continues to trend in the right direction. Not only has he not missed a cut since July, he had a top-5 against a strong field at the Australian Open and his fourth place showing at The Genesis Invitational two weeks ago was his best since 2024. Meanwhile, Rose has missed the cut in five of his last six trips to Bay Hill and two missed cuts in four starts this year.
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