Rankings are an indicator in college basketball betting for which teams are the best, but they don't mean a thing when March Madness rolls around. Or do they?
The 2026 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament fast approaching, so the team at RotoWire.com assessed where each eventual March Madness winner this century stood in the Associated Press poll on Feb. 1. We broke down each team's record and ranking at the start of the second month of the year.
Men's Basketball Champions: Where They Ranked on Feb. 1
| Year | Champion | Record/Ranking |
| 2025 | Florida | 18-2 (No. 5) |
| 2024 | UConn | 19-2 (No. 1) |
| 2023 | UConn | 17-6 (No. 24) |
| 2022 | Kansas | 18-3 (No. 10) |
| 2021 | Baylor | 16-0 (No. 2) |
| 2019 | Virginia | 19-1 (No. 3) |
| 2018 | Villanova | 20-1 (No. 1) |
| 2017 | North Carolina | 20-4 (No. 12) |
| 2016 | Villanova | 20-1 (No. 1) |
| 2015 | Duke | 18-3 (No. 4) |
| 2014 | UConn | 17-4 (unranked — entered top 25 on Feb. 6) |
| 2013 | Louisville | 17-4 (No. 12) |
| 2012 | Kentucky | 22-1 (No. 1) |
| 2011 | UConn | 17-3 (No. 5) |
| 2010 | Duke | 17-4 (No. 8) |
| 2009 | North Carolina | 19-2 (No. 5) |
| 2008 | Kansas | 20-1 (No. 2) |
| 2007 | Florida | 20-2 (No. 1) |
| 2006 | Florida | 19-2 (No. 8) |
| 2005 | North Carolina | 17-2 (No. 3) |
| 2004 | UConn | 17-3 (No. 8) |
| 2003 | Syracuse | 13-3 (unranked — entered top 25 on Feb. 3) |
| 2002 | Maryland | 17-3 (No. 3) |
| 2001 | Duke | 19-1 (No. 2) |
| 2000 | Michigan State | 19-0 (No. 1) |
This data is provided by RotoWire for customers at college basketball betting sites to analyze trends for teams that go on to win the national championship over the past quarter century.
On Monday, the latest AP top 25 poll was released, with undefeated Arizona (22-0), with leading scorer Brayden Burries (above), ranked No. 1 for the eighth consecutive week.
Five teams in the top 10 as of Feb. 2 have won national championships, including the top-ranked Wildcats. Others on that list include No. 2 Michigan, No. 3 UConn, No. 4 Duke and No. 10 Michigan State. However, five current top-10 teams seek their first national title: No. 5 Illinois, No. 6 Gonzaga, No. 7 Iowa State, No. 8 Houston and No. 9 Nebraska.
At bet365 Sportsbook, Arizona is the favorite to win the national championship, with +425 odds as of Feb. 2. The Wildcats are followed by Michigan (+475 odds), Duke (+650) and Houston (+1100).
Where Have Past Champs Stood on Feb. 1?
Since 2000, the team that wound up winning the NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at season's end had won 88.8% of its games and possessed an average ranking of 7.16 in the Associated Press top 25 poll entering February.
Of the past 25 champions, only Syracuse in 2003 and UConn in 2014 were outside the top 25 at the start of February. The Orange entered the top 25 on Feb. 3 that year, while the Huskies did the same on Feb. 6.
UConn is the strong favorite to win the Big East this season, with -380 odds for customers using the DraftKings bonus code.
Conversely, six teams – Michigan State, Florida, Kentucky, Villanova (twice) and UConn – were ranked atop the AP top 25 at the start of February en route to a national championship. Three eventual champs were No. 2 in the poll on Feb. 1: Duke in 2001, Kansas in 2008 and Baylor in 2021.
Last year's champion (Florida) was No. 5 in the polls entering February, becoming the third champion to come from that spot, joining North Carolina in 2009 and UConn in 2011.
Other than the two teams that exited January unranked, the only NCAA men's basketball champion this century to win it after ranking outside the top 20 nationally on Feb. 1 was UConn, No. 24 at this time in 2023. North Carolina (2017) and Louisville (2013, title vacated) were the other teams outside the top 10, sitting 12th in the polls both years.
Top US sportsbook apps have odds for college basketball futures plus individual games, player awards and more.
Which Teams Could Fit The Profile This Season?
Looking at the average records and rankings of March Madness winners this century, we can estimate that any team in the top 10 right now are safe bets to make come tourney time.
That septet includes No. 1 Arizona, as well as UConn, Michigan, Duke, Nebraska, Gonzaga and Michigan State. Iowa State and Houston shouldn't be counted out either, given the fact that the average ranking of the last 25 champions has been sandwiched between spots 7 and 8 in the polls.
If we use KenPom.com rankings to compile our list of potential March Madness champs, we'd have a club that includes No. 1 Michigan, No. 2 Arizona, followed by Duke, Iowa State, Illinois, Houston, Florida and Purdue.
A glance at the NCAA Tournament betting odds shows a similar cast of teams. The Arizona Wildcats are the consensus betting favorite at sports betting apps.
The Wolverines are the next best bet, with odds ranging from +450 (BetMGM Sportsbook and DraftKings) to +500 (FanDuel).
Duke, Houston and UConn are also strong contenders. Outside of those teams, the betting favorites come March Madness vary slightly.
DraftKings has the following teams at the top of the board for national title odds as of Feb. 2: Arizona at +425 odds, Michigan +450, Duke +700, Houston +1000, UConn +1200, Iowa State +1300, Illinois +1400, Florida +1800, then Purdue and Gonzaga both at +2000.
FanDuel Sportsbook, meanwhile, has the following teams in its top 10 for national title futures odds: Arizona +440, Michigan +500, Duke +600, Florida, Houston and Illinois all at +1200, UConn +1500, Iowa State +1800, Gonzaga +2000, then Nebraska and Kansas at +2500.
We can assume that any of those programs have a solid shot at hoisting the hardware when the 2026 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament wraps up in Indianapolis on April 6. The past quarter of a century tells us that, even though Cinderella stories capture the imagination early during March Madness, favorites follow through when the lights shine brightest in early April.
To prepare for the 2026 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament, check out our best March Madness betting promos at RotoWire.
