This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.
Fourth-round action begins Tuesday from the hard courts of Indian Wells, California. Top title contenders in both the men's and women's draw could be tested by talented underdogs, while a pair of surging 20-year-olds look to keep rolling on the heels of top-10 third-round wins.
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All men's and women's singles matches at Indian Wells are best of three sets. A mix of players' previous hard court results, recent form and stylistic matchups can help pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities, both among favorites likely to cruise to victory and underdogs ready to pull off upsets. The aforementioned underdogs are highlighted in the Upset Alert section, the Lock It In section covers players who can safely be viewed as overwhelming favorites, while the Value Bets section recommends enticing options in matchups that are considered closer to toss-ups.
Indian Wells Open Tennis Picks: Upset Alert
Naomi Osaka (+396) vs. Aryna Sabalenka
Both of these players are four-time hard-court Grand Slam champions, with just one loss apiece this year. Osaka has played just six matches in 2026 to Sabalenka's 14, and the former's last Grand Slam title came back in 2021, but Osaka's form since the second half of last year has looked much closer to her Grand Slam-winning tennis compared to the preceding few years. These players both excel at offense, so getting on the front foot early in rallies will be key, and this matchup could well come down to which player has the better serving day. The only previous meeting between these two was remarkably way back in 2018, and Osaka came out on top in that match.
Joao Fonseca (+880) vs. Jannik Sinner
Sinnner's the obvious favorite in this match, but Fonseca has a much better chance than the Brazilian underdog's long odds suggest. The second-ranked Italian has looked just a bit more vulnerable than the previous couple years to begin 2026, as his losses to Novak Djokovic and Jakub Mensik match Sinner's total of two hard-court losses to players other than Carlos Alcaraz from the entire 2024 and 2025 seasons combined. Fonseca is one of the few players with the raw talent to go toe-to-toe with Sinner, as the 19-year-old Brazilian routinely cracks 100 mph with his forehand and is viewed by many as the likeliest candidate to break up the Sincaraz duopoly atop the sport. After a back injury slowed down Fonseca's start to the season, he has regained health and looked impressive here, showcasing the ability to step up in the clutch during a 4-6, 7-6 (7), 6-4 second-round win over No. 16 seed Karen Khachanov before overpowering No. 23 seed Tommy Paul 6-2, 6-3 in the third round.
Honorable Mention
Talia Gibson (+212) vs. Jasmine Paolini
Indian Wells Open Tennis Odds: Lock It In
Alexander Zverev (-266) vs. Frances Tiafoe
Zverev has a commanding 8-1 lead in this head-to-head, and the fourth-ranked German has won six consecutive encounters since Tiafoe notched his lone victory in 2017. Tiafoe loves to feed off the crowd and plays his best tennis in the U.S., but his subpar return ability usually leaves the American with few looks to break one of the world's best servers in Zverev, allowing Zverev to hold comfortably and bide his time until Tiafoe hits a rough patch and misses a few first serves.
Honorable Mention
Amanda Anisimova (-166) vs. Victoria Mboko
Indian Wells Open Tennis Predictions: Value Bets
Learner Tien (-123) vs. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
Tien is rapidly ascending the rankings, and it likely won't be long at this rate until the 20-year-old American closes the current eight-spot gap to surpass the 19th-ranked Davidovich Fokina. After reaching his first career Grand Slam quarterfinal at the Australian Open, Tien would have his first Masters 1000 quarterfinal with a victory in this match. He became the youngest American since Andy Roddick in 1999 to reach 50 wins on the ATP Tour earlier in this tournament, then Tien won an all-American matchup against No. 8 seed Ben Shelton. Davidovich Fokina is also coming off a marquee win over the 12th-seeded Mensik, but the enigmatic Spaniard isn't known for match-to-match consistency, so a letdown here wouldn't be surprising, especially with a partisan crowd in Tien's favor likely to exacerbate any frustration for Davidovich Fokina.
Alexandra Eala (+151) vs. Linda Noskova
Eala's biggest strength is her ability to get low and absorb/redirect power, and that skill should help her in this matchup against the big-hitting Noskova, who loves to control play from the baseline but doesn't have the best court coverage. Eala has quickly become one of the biggest crowd favorites on the WTA Tour, and her third-round win over No. 4 seed Coco Gauff should boost the 20-year-old Filipina's confidence, even though Gauff was far from 100 percent and couldn't finish the match. The 14th-ranked Noskova is 7-4 this season, with three losses to players ranked outside the top 30.
Honorable Mention
Arthur Fils (+123) vs. Felix Auger-Aliassime
