This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.
Third-round play continues Monday from the hard courts of Indian Wells, California. One of the favorites in the women's draw is on upset alert against an opponent who recently defeated her, while favored Americans will look to continue their march through the tournament.
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All men's and women's singles matches at Indian Wells are best of three sets. A mix of players' previous hard court results, recent form and stylistic matchups can help pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities, both among favorites likely to cruise to victory and underdogs ready to pull off upsets. The aforementioned underdogs are highlighted in the Upset Alert section, the Lock It In section covers players who can safely be viewed as overwhelming favorites, while the Value Bets section recommends enticing options in matchups that are considered closer to toss-ups.
Indian Wells Open Tennis Picks: Upset Alert
Maria Sakkari (+342) vs. Iga Swiatek
Sakkari notched a 2-6, 6-4, 7-5 win over Swiatek less than a month ago in Doha to level their career head-to-head at 4-4. Two of those Swiatek wins came right here at Indian Wells, but they were both in championship matches, where Iga reaches another level and has an 18-2 record at WTA 1000, WTA Finals and Grand Slam events. Swiatek's more vulnerable in earlier rounds, and she had to dig out of a 5-1 hole in the second set of her first match here against 187th-ranked Kayla Day, so Iga is far from peak form at the moment.
Antonia Ruzic (+492) vs. Karolina Muchova
Ruzic has notched top-25 victories over Elena Rybakina (via third-set retirement) and Qinwen Zheng over the past few weeks, so she won't be intimidated against the 13th-seeded Muchova. The favored Czech is off to an excellent 13-2 start in 2026, but Muchova went just 6-5 to close out 2025, while the likes of Ajla Tomljanovic and Alycia Parks have had her on the ropes this year but failed to reach the finish line. The 57th-ranked Ruzic's confidence should be at an all-time high given her recent results against prominent opponents, so the 23-year-old Croatian has a better chance of closing the deal if she gets within striking distance of pulling the upset.
Honorable Mention
Cameron Norrie (+366) vs. Alex de Minaur
Indian Wells Open Tennis Odds: Lock It In
Taylor Fritz (-256) vs. Alex Michelsen
Fritz has played some of his best tennis over the years at Indian Wells after growing up in the area. He has a 23-8 career record here and has reached at least the fourth round in five consecutive years, including his lone career Masters 1000 title in 2022. The seventh-ranked American will extend that fourth-round streak if he gets by his 44th-ranked compatriot Michelsen. Their only previous meeting was a tight three-set win for Michelsen on clay, but Fritz's ability to get significantly more free points on serve should prove to be the difference in this hard-court rematch.
Elina Svitolina (-368) vs. Ashlyn Krueger
Svitolina has been among the top performers on the WTA Tour to begin 2026, with a 16-3 record and two of the three losses coming against top-five competition. The 82nd-ranked Krueger is just 6-6 this year, and the 21-year-old American has lost her last five matches against top-10 opponents, all in straight sets. The ninth-ranked Svitolina won their only previous matchup right here at Indian Wells a year ago.
Honorable Mention
Madison Keys (-191) vs. Sonay Kartal
Indian Wells Open Tennis Predictions: Value Bets
Francisco Cerundolo (+144) vs. Jack Draper
Draper is still searching for his top form in his second tournament back from an arm injury that had sidelined him since the U.S. Open. He lost to Arthur Rinderknech in his second match in Dubai and dropped the opening set to 93rd-ranked Roberto Bautista Agut here. The 20th-ranked Cerundolo will be the highest-ranked opponent Draper has faced since returning to the ATP Tour. Draper has a higher peak level, as he showed en route to winning Indian Wells in 2025, but he isn't playing at that level now, while Cerundolo's off to a solid 11-4 start this year, including a 2-1 record against top-25 competition. Cerundolo also boasts a 2-0 career head-to-head edge over Draper.
Valentin Vacherot (+133) vs. Casper Ruud
Ruud is just 8-5 in his career at Indian Wells, having made it past the third round only twice in five previous tries. He's also off to a slow start in 2026, with just a 6-5 record. Vacherot has built up plenty of momentum, establishing himself as a top-30 player with runs to the final of the Shanghai Masters and quarterfinals of the Paris Masters down the stretch in 2025, both on hard courts. The big-serving Monegasque is unlikely to give Ruud many openings in return games, and Ruud has struggled to generate breaks of serve as it is, failing to break an opponent more than once in four consecutive matches before finally breaking twice in his 6-1, 7-6 (4) second-round win over 88th-ranked Alexander Shevchenko.
Honorable Mention
Belinda Bencic (-110) vs. Elise Mertens
