This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.
The third round of the Australian Open continues Saturday from the hard courts of Melbourne Park in Melbourne, Australia, with the action starting Friday night in the United States. A pair of Italian seeds who prefer clay could run into trouble against tough third-round opponents, while one of the hardest players to upset in a Grand Slam could face a surprisingly stiff test from an underdog.
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All men's singles matches at Grand Slams such as the Australian Open are best of five sets, while women's singles matches are best of three sets. A mix of players' previous hard court results, recent form and stylistic matchups can help pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities, both among favorites likely to cruise to victory and underdogs ready to pull off upsets. The aforementioned underdogs are highlighted in the Upset Alert section, the Lock It In section covers players who can safely be viewed as favorites, while the Value Bets section recommends enticing options in matchups that are considered closer to toss-ups.
Australian Open Tennis Picks: Upset Alert
Botic van de Zandschulp (+890) vs. Novak Djokovic
Djokovic should absolutely be favored in this match, but van de Zandschulp has a better chance than the Dutchman's extremely long odds suggest. Van de Zandschulp has been quite the giant slayer over the years, notably shocking Carlos Alcaraz in the second round of the 2024 U.S. Open, in addition to beating Djokovic at Indian Wells last year to even their head-to-head at 1-1. Most players are already halfway to losing a match before even stepping on the court with the likes of Djokovic due to a lack of belief, but that shouldn't be a problem for van de Zandschulp, who knows from experience that he's capable of hanging in matches like this one. Van de Zandschulp plays his best tennis on hard courts, having reached the quarterfinals of the U.S. Open back in 2021, and he has enough power to make Djokovic uncomfortable, unlike Novak's first two opponents, who didn't force Djokovic to leave cruise control. The risk of an in-match injury is also greater for the 38-year-old Djokovic compared to most players.
Nikola Bartunkova (+330) vs. Elise Mertens
Bartunkova has already beaten a former top-10 player in Daria Kasatkina and a current top-10 player in Belinda Bencic, remarkably recovering from being served second-set bagels in both matches. Throw in the 19-year-old's three wins in qualifying before that, and the confidence level on the court for the Czech teenager has to be at an all-time high heading into this matchup with Mertens. The 21st-seeded Belgian is rock-solid but has a ceiling to her game and tends to bow out around this stage at major tournaments. Mertens hasn't reached a Grand Slam quarterfinal since the 2020 U.S. Open despite this being the 15th time that she has made at least the third round in 21 subsequent Grand Slam appearances.
Honorable Mention
Marin Cilic (+192) vs. Casper Ruud
Australian Open Tennis Odds: Lock It In
Karen Khachanov (-435) vs. Luciano Darderi
Khachanov is a strong all-court player, complementing the natural power and serve angles afforded by his 6-foot-6 frame with excellent fitness and movement for his size. He has made at least the quarterfinals of all four majors and is into at least the third round for the eighth consecutive Australian Open, highlighted by his semifinal showing in 2023. At No. 15, Khachanov's seeded only seven spots ahead of Darderi, but the gap in their hard-court results is much greater. Darderi's a clay-court specialist with an 11-29 career hard-court record on the ATP Tour. Darderi got through a pair of players who also prefer clay in Cristian Garin and Sebastian Baez, but Khachanov's ability to penetrate the court with his groundstrokes should create more problems for Darderi by robbing the Italian of time to set up.
Iga Swiatek (-452) vs. Anna Kalinskaya
The Australian Open has been Swiatek's worst slam now that she has won Wimbledon, but the world No. 2 is still an extremely tough out here, having lost prior to the Round of 16 only once in her last six Australian Open appearances. Kalinskaya has a hard-court win over Swiatek, but that came in arguably the best tournament of Kalinskaya's career, when she reached the final of the Dubai WTA 1000 in February of 2022. Iga answered with a pair of straight-set hard-court wins in the second half of 2025, and this fourth matchup is likely to look similar to the last two. It usually takes an exceptional effort to beat Swiatek at a Grand Slam, and the 33rd-ranked Kalinskaya is unlikely to conjure up the level of quality needed to do so considering the Russian has dropped her last four matches against top-50 opponents.
Honorable Mention
Ben Shelton (-410) vs. Valentin Vacherot
Australian Open Tennis Predictions: Value Bets
Tomas Machac (+127) vs. Lorenzo Musetti
Machac has dealt expertly with a difficult draw to get into the third round, beating a pair of former Australian Open semifinalists in Grigor Dimitrov and Stefanos Tsitsipas. The 24th-ranked Czech missed out on being seeded here because his title in Adelaide came after the cutoff date for rankings to be used for seeding, but he's certainly playing like a seeded player, with five top-45 wins during his current seven-match winning streak. The fifth-ranked Musetti gets most of his ranking points on surfaces other than hard courts, as he was a semifinalist at Wimbledon in 2024 and at the 2025 French Open. The Italian shot-maker has never been past the third round at the Australian Open, though, and he was getting all he could handle in the first round from 72nd-ranked Raphael Collignon before the Belgian retired with Musetti leading 3-2 in the fourth set. Machac won the only previous matchup between these two on a hard court in 2024, and the 25-year-old Czech's strong form has him in position to improve to 2-0 against Musetti.
Honorable Mention
Xinyu Wang (+157) vs. Linda Noskova
