This article is part of our Drake's Takes series.
Top DFS Picks and Strategies for UFC Vegas 114
DFS plays for this weekend's UFC Vegas 114 card are live. Included in this preview are profiles for each fighter and breakdowns of my DFS strategy for every bout on the card. Welcome to Drake's Takes.
Top UFC 326 Picks & Career Results:
2026 Overall Picks: 55-22-0
2025 Overall Picks: 345-152-2
DFS Lock of the Week: Vallejos
Fanduel Captain: Vallejos/Orolbai
Josh Emmett (19-6-0) v. Kevin Vallejos (17-1-0)
- Height: 5'6" – Reach: 70" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 19-6 (7 KO/TKO, 2 submissions)
- Explosive power puncher with dangerous one-shot knockout ability
- Age and declining activity make extended fights more difficult
- Height: 5'7" – Reach: 68" – Stance: Switch
- Record: 17-1 (12 KO/TKO, 2 submissions)
- Younger, well-rounded prospect with strong pace and athleticism
- Comfortable mixing striking and grappling while maintaining pressure
DFS Perspective: Emmett's path to victory largely revolves around landing a flash knockout, as his power remains his biggest weapon. Outside of that scenario, Vallejos appears to hold advantages in youth, activity, and overall skill set. If Vallejos avoids the early power shots, he should be able to control the fight through volume, movement, and well-rounded offense. Vallejos profiles as the preferred DFS play with strong win equity and potential finishing upside if he overwhelms Emmett over time.
UFC Vegas 114 Pick: Vallejos
Interested in backing this or other selections on sites like PrizePicks? Check out the Best MMA Picks & Prop Bets by comparing lines to our projections using the RotoWire Picks & Props tool.
Amanda Lemos (15-5-1) v. Gillian Robertson (16-8-0)
- Height: 5'4" – Reach: 65" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 15-5-1 (8 KO/TKO, 3 submissions)
- Dangerous striker with real finishing power on the feet
- Has struggled historically against strong grapplers who force prolonged control
- Height: 5'5" – Reach: 63" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 16-8 (3 KO/TKO, 9 submissions)
- Elite grappler with relentless takedown and submission hunting
- Most effective when she can impose a wrestling-heavy game plan
DFS Perspective: Robertson by submission is the most likely outcome if she is able to enforce her grappling early. Lemos remains dangerous on the feet, but her past struggles against strong wrestlers make this a difficult stylistic matchup. If Robertson consistently secures takedowns and advances position, she could quickly find a submission. Robertson profiles as the preferred DFS play, with strong finishing equity thanks to her grappling advantage.
UFC Vegas 114 Pick: Robertson
Oumar Sy (12-1-0) v. Ion Cutelaba (19-11-1)
- Height: 6'4" – Reach: 83" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 12-1 (5 KO/TKO, 4 submissions)
- Long, athletic fighter with strong finishing instincts and improving all-around game
- Uses reach and physicality well to control range and dictate exchanges
- Height: 6'1" – Reach: 75" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 19-11-1 (13 KO/TKO, 3 submissions)
- Aggressive brawler with early explosiveness and knockout power
- Can be reckless and tends to fade when fights extend
DFS Perspective: Sy should have advantages across most phases of this matchup. His reach, composure, and more complete skill set give him a strong path to control the fight while avoiding Cutelaba's early chaos. Cutelaba is always dangerous early, but Sy's discipline and athleticism should allow him to weather that storm and take over. Sy profiles as the preferred DFS play with solid win equity and potential finishing upside if the fight stretches beyond the opening exchanges.
UFC Vegas 114 Pick: Sy
Andre Fili (25-12-0) v. Jose Delgado (10-2-0)
- Height: 5'11" – Reach: 74" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 25-12 (10 KO/TKO, 3 submissions)
- Experienced striker with good movement and clean boxing combinations
- Durable but can be caught in firefights when exchanges open up
- Height: 5'11" – Reach: 74" – Stance: Switch
- Record: 10-2 (6 KO/TKO, 4 submissions)
- Aggressive striker with real power and willingness to push exchanges
- Dangerous when fights turn into high-tempo striking battles
DFS Perspective: This fight should feature plenty of striking and carries real knockdown potential on both sides. Fili's experience and durability keep him competitive, but Delgado's aggression and power give him the edge in landing the more damaging shots. In a fight likely to stay standing and feature heavy exchanges, Delgado is the more appealing DFS option with strong knockout upside.
UFC Vegas 114 Pick: Delgado
Marwan Rahiki (7-0-0) v. Harry Hardwick (13-4-1)
- Height: 5'8" – Reach: 72" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 7-0 (6 KO/TKO, 1 submission)
- Dangerous striker with real finishing power and forward pressure
- Most effective when fights turn into open striking exchanges
- Height: 5'8" – Reach: 71" – Stance: Switch
- Record: 13-4-1 (3 KO/TKO, 4 submission)
- Aggressive fighter who is willing to trade in the pocket
- Durability concerns have shown when facing heavy hitters
DFS Perspective: This matchup carries clear volatility given the durability questions on both sides. Rahiki appears to be the more dangerous striker and should have the advantage if the fight becomes a back-and-forth striking battle. Hardwick will have opportunities if exchanges get chaotic, but Rahiki's power and finishing ability make him the more likely fighter to capitalize. Rahiki profiles as the preferred DFS play with realistic knockout upside in a fight that could end quickly.
UFC Vegas 114 Pick: Rahiki
Vitor Petrino (13-2-0) v. Steven Asplund (7-1-0)
- Height: 6'2" – Reach: 77" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 13-2 (8 KO/TKO, 2 submissions)
- Powerful, athletic striker with strong finishing instincts
- More composed and disciplined in exchanges than most opponents
- Height: 6'5" – Reach: 78" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 7-1 (6 KO/TKO)
- Aggressive and wild fighter who looks to create chaos early
- Can leave major openings defensively when pushing the pace
DFS Perspective: Petrino is the safer play here due to his composure and ability to fight within structure, especially against a more chaotic opponent like Asplund. That said, Asplund's aggression means he always has a path if the fight becomes wild early. Petrino's discipline and power give him the more reliable DFS scoring path, while Asplund remains a high-variance tournament option if he forces chaotic exchanges.
UFC Vegas 114 Pick: Petrino
Bruno Silva (15-7-2) v. Charles Johnson (18-8-0)
- Height: 5'4" – Reach: 65" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 15-7-2 (6 KO/TKO, 5 submissions)
- Aggressive fighter who looks to close distance and create scrambles
- Can struggle when opponents control range and limit grappling opportunities
- Height: 5'9" – Reach: 70" – Stance: Switch
- Record: 18-8 (7 KO/TKO, 4 submissions)
- Clean striker with excellent defensive awareness and movement
- Comfortable managing distance and winning rounds through volume
DFS Perspective: Johnson's defense and technical striking should allow him to control the pace and keep Silva from imposing his grappling game. While that likely leads to Johnson getting his hand raised, the DFS ceiling may be somewhat limited if the fight plays out as a controlled striking battle without a finish. Johnson profiles as the preferred side due to his ability to manage range and avoid danger, but this may be more of a moderate-scoring decision scenario.
UFC Vegas 114 Pick: Johnson
Brad Tavares (21-11-0) v. Eryk Anders (17-9-0)
- Height: 6'1" – Reach: 74" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 20-9 (5 KO/TKO, 2 submissions)
- Technical striker with a sharp jab and solid defensive fundamentals
- Experienced veteran who typically wins fights through discipline and control
- Height: 6'1" – Reach: 75" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 16-8 (10 KO/TKO, 1 submission)
- Physical fighter with power but inconsistent output
- Can struggle to keep a consistent pace over three rounds
DFS Perspective: This projects as one of the weaker fights on the slate from a DFS standpoint. Neither fighter tends to push a high pace, which limits scoring potential unless an unexpected finish occurs. Tavares' experience, defensive awareness, and slick jab give him the edge in a controlled striking matchup. He's the safer pick to win the fight, but the overall DFS ceiling for this matchup remains low.
UFC Vegas 114 Pick: Tavares
Chris Curtis (32-12-0) v. Myktybek Orolbai (15-2-1)
- Height: 5'10" – Reach: 75" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 32-12 (15 KO/TKO, 3 submission)
- Sharp boxer with strong counter-striking ability
- Can struggle when opponents consistently pursue takedowns and control
- Height: 5'10" – Reach: 74" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 15-2-1 (7 KO/TKO, 6 submissions)
- Relentless wrestler with strong top control and submission threats
- Excellent at chaining takedowns and maintaining pressure
DFS Perspective: Orolbai could have a field day if he implements a wrestling-heavy game plan. His ability to repeatedly secure takedowns and control opponents creates a massive DFS scoring path through control time, advances, and submission attempts. Curtis is dangerous on the feet, but if Orolbai commits to rinse-and-repeat takedowns, he could produce another huge DFS score. Orolbai profiles as one of the strongest DFS targets on the slate due to his grappling dominance and scoring potential.
UFC Vegas 114 Pick: Orolbai
Bolaji Oki (10-3-0) v. Manoel Sousa (13-1-0)
- Height: 5'10" – Reach: 73" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 10-3 (5 KO/TKO, 1 submission)
- Powerful striker with strong physicality and finishing instincts
- Can be hittable when exchanges become chaotic
- Height: 5'9" – Reach: 70" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 13-1 (8 KO/TKO, 3 submissions)
- Explosive striker with excellent speed and knockout power
- Dangerous when he pressures and forces opponents into exchanges
DFS Perspective: Sousa's power and speed make him the preferred side in this matchup. If the fight becomes a striking battle, his explosiveness and ability to land damaging shots give him a strong chance to secure a finish. Oki has power of his own, which keeps the fight volatile, but Sousa's athleticism and aggression create the clearer DFS path. Sousa profiles as a strong tournament play with legitimate knockout upside.
UFC Vegas 114 Pick: Sousa
Luan Lacerda (13-3-0) v. Hecher Sosa (14-1-0)
- Height: 5'7" – Reach: 71" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 13-3 (11 submissions)
- Grappling-heavy fighter who relies heavily on takedowns and submission attempts
- Limited striking arsenal makes him predictable when grappling is neutralized
- Height: 5'9" – Reach: 70" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 14-1 (6 KO/TKO, 3 submissions)
- Well-rounded fighter with solid defensive grappling and striking power
- Comfortable keeping fights standing and forcing opponents out of their comfort zone
DFS Perspective: Lacerda's one-dimensional grappling approach makes this a favorable stylistic matchup for Sosa. If Sosa is able to neutralize the takedown attempts and keep the fight standing, he should have a clear advantage on the feet. Lacerda's limited striking makes it difficult for him to adjust if his grappling game is canceled out. Sosa profiles as the preferred DFS play with potential scoring upside if he controls the fight and lands clean striking exchanges.
UFC Vegas 114 Pick: Sosa
Bia Mesquita (6-0-0) v. Montserrat Rendon (7-1-0)
- Height: 5'4" – Reach: 67" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 6-0 (1 KO/TKO, 4 submissions)
- Elite grappler with world-class submission skills and strong positional control
- Dangerous whenever fights hit the mat and capable of ending fights quickly
- Height: 5'8" – Reach: 68" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 7-1
- Tough and durable fighter with a grinding style
- Limited finishing ability and can struggle against elite grapplers
DFS Perspective: Mesquita gets a very favorable stylistic matchup here. Her elite grappling and submission ability give her a clear path to control the fight once it reaches the mat. Rendon's toughness could keep her competitive early, but if Mesquita establishes top control, the submission threats will pile up quickly. Mesquita profiles as a strong DFS option with legitimate finishing upside through her grappling dominance.
UFC Vegas 114 Pick: Mesquita
Elijah Smith (9-1-0) v. Su Young You (16-3-0)
- Height: 5'9" – Reach: 71" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 9-1 (5 KO/TKO, 1 submission)
- Physical striker with good power and forward pressure
- Most effective when dictating pace and forcing exchanges
- Height: 5'6" – Reach: 65" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 16-3 (3 KO/TKO, 5 submissions)
- Crafty and technical fighter with solid fight IQ
- Capable of capitalizing on mistakes and creating upset opportunities
DFS Perspective: Smith's strength and physicality give him the edge in this matchup, and if he controls the pace, he should be able to pull out the win. However, You's craftiness and ability to capitalize on openings make him a legitimate upset threat if Smith becomes careless. Smith profiles as the preferred DFS side due to his power and pressure, but You remains a viable tournament dart for those looking for leverage if the fight turns chaotic.
UFC Vegas 114 Pick: Smith
Piera Rodriguez (11-2-0) v. Sam Hughes (11-6-0)
- Height: 5'3" – Reach: 63" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 11-2 (5 KO/TKO)
- Strong wrestler with good top control and positional awareness
- Most effective when she can dictate pace and grind opponents on the mat
- Height: 5'5" – Reach: 64" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 11-6 (2 KO/TKO, 4 submissions)
- Durable grinder who is comfortable in scrambles and clinch battles
- Limited finishing ability but capable of making fights ugly and competitive
DFS Perspective: These fighters share fairly similar styles, but Rodriguez should be the one finding control positions more often. Her wrestling and ability to secure top position give her the clearest path to winning rounds and accumulating DFS scoring through control and advances. Hughes' toughness could allow the fight to extend, but Rodriguez profiles as the preferred DFS side due to her ability to dictate where the fight takes place.
UFC Vegas 114 Pick: Rodriguez
The latest in UFC betting odds & fighter prop bets for every event are on RotoWire, plus users can compare markets across multiple legal sportsbooks.
FANDUEL MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Significant Strikes = 0.6 pts
Takedown = 6 pts
Knockdown = 12 pts
Submission Attempt = 5 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win = 100 pts
2nd Round Win = 75 pts
3rd Round Win = 50 pts
4th Round Win = 35 pts
5th Round Win = 25 pts
Decision Win = 20 pts
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider a substantial time.
DRAFTKINGS MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 pts
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 pts
Control Time: +0.03 pts/Second
Takedown (TD): +5 pts
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 pts
Knockdown (KD): +10 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 pts
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 pts
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 pts
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 pts
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 pts
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 pts
Quick Win Bonus: +25 pts
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and be worth 0.4 points in total.
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
