This article is part of our DraftKings MMA series.
UFC Vegas 114 Predictions: DraftKings DFS Preview & Picks
If you're hoping to turn the event into an opportunity to build your DFS bankroll, DraftKings.com has you covered with a full slate of contests, including a $350k UFC Throwdown with $100k to first place. Players get a $50,000 budget to select six fighters, and the scoring rules are noted at the bottom of the column. Let's get to the action...
Main Event - Featherweight
Josh Emmett (19-6-0) v. Kevin Vallejos (17-1-0)
DK Salaries: Emmett ($6,600), Vallejos ($9,600)
Vegas Odds: Emmett (+410), Vallejos (-550)
Emmett continues to get notable fights despite the fact he turned 41 years old a couple weeks ago and is 1-4 in his past five fights. To be fair, those setbacks came against Youssef Zalal, Lerone Murphy, Ilia Topuria, and Yair Rodriguez, but it's clear as day by watching him that Emmett is trending in the wrong direction. I can't help but think the UFC clearly sees that and are simply using him here to raise the stock of one of the division's brightest prospects.
Vallejos turned 24 years of age in December and has all the makings of a future title challenger. He fought three times in 2025, winning each, with two coming via knockout. His finish of Giga Chikadze on the final card of the year was a thing of beauty. Vallejos' lone professional loss came against Jean Silva on Dana White's Contender Series back in September 2023. I'm all-in here. I think this is a kid with a boatload of long-term potential.
Emmett made his name as a massive power puncher, and while they often say power is the last thing to go, the truth of the matter is he has just a single knockout win (Bryce Mitchell) dating back to July 2019. He's very limited from a grappling standpoint and arguably more limited athletically. I just don't know how he's going to generate consistent offense at his advanced age, on top of the typical durability issues associated with older fighters.
The reason I'm high on Vallejos is because he's more than just a power puncher.
Sure, his most likely win condition is by knockout, as evidenced by the fact 12 of his 17 career wins have come via that method, but he does have a couple submissions on his resume and more importantly, is averaging 5.78 significant strikes landed per minute.
Too often we see power punchers load up on every single shot and not throw enough as a result. That's not a problem with Vallejos.
This fight in particular seems like a bad matchup for Emmett. He's probably going to have to go blow-for-blow with Vallejos to have any chance of winning, but of course that plays into the greatest strength of his opponent.
I suppose Emmett could nuke him with one shot, but I wouldn't bet on it given his virtual complete inability to earn finishes in recent years.
The price on Vallejos, the highest on the card, is ridiculous, but he'll probably pay off in the end. He does have five rounds to work with and I find it hard to believe Emmett's finishing power will suddenly return and even less likely he'll outwork Vallejos to win a decision if it somehow gets that far.
UFC VEGAS 114 PICK: Vallejos
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Co-Main Event - Women's Strawweight
Amanda Lemos (15-5-1) v. Gillian Robertson (16-8-0)
DK Salaries: Lemos ($7,600), Robertson ($8,600)
Vegas Odds: Lemos (+165), Robertson (-200)
This fight was originally due to take place in December on what was the final card of the year before Lemos ended up being pulled on the day of the event.
The definition of roster depth, Lemos turned 38 years of age in late May and has alternated losses and wins in her last six fights dating back to November 2022. To be fair, she's been matched up against quality competition nearly the entirety of that stretch. Lemos' three setbacks during that previously mentioned stretch came against Tatiana Suarez, Virna Jandiroba, and Zhang Weili. She also has a win over current UFC Women's Strawweight Champion Mackenzie Dern back in February 2024. That said, there's zero ceiling here despite the win over Dern less than two years ago. Also of note is the fact the Suarez fight took place in mid-September, so this is a very quick turn around for an aging fighter.
Robertson has won four straight and six of seven dating back to September 2022. She has two submission wins and two knockout victories in there. Those two knockouts (Polyana Viana, Marina Rodriguez) represent 66 percent of the KO's in Robertson's professional career. She's been with the UFC more than eight years now and has done a terrific job of getting back on track following a woefully inconsistent start during the early portion of her run with the company.
I feel like I say this every single time I break down a Lemos fight, but I struggle to find anything she actually does particularly well.
She defended 9-of-12 takedowns against Suarez, which was impressive, but still managed to give up 9:34 worth of control time. Lemos lands 2.75 significant strikes per minute on average and connects on just 1.02 takedowns per 15 minutes. In other words, she has zero ability to generate consistent offense. Now, would she look better in fights against lesser opponents? Maybe, but Lemos has been with the UFC since July 2017. It's a pretty safe bet this is simply what she is at this point.
Robertson is equally low volume on the feet (2.86 significant strikes landed per minute), but that's far more understandable an acceptable because she's a quality grappler. Gillian has landed multiple takedowns in four straight and six of seven. To summarize, this recent string of success began when she was able to truly weaponize her wrestling game.
Even if Amanda is able to remain upright, I wouldn't be shocked if Robertson outworks her on the feet, even if she's far from the cleanest striker around. Toss in the grappling edge and she's the pick.
UFC VEGAS 114 PICK: Robertson
Light Heavyweight
Ion Cutelaba (19-11-1, 1NC) v. Oumar Sy (12-1-0)
DK Salaries: Cutelaba ($7,400), Sy ($8,800)
Vegas Odds: Cutelaba (+195), Sy (-240)
The fact Cutelaba still has a roster spot in early 2026 is quite remarkable. This is a guy that lost three straight -- all via stoppage -- back in 2022 and posted a stretch in which he had just one win (1-5, 1NC) in a seven-fight span earlier in his UFC run. Cutelaba had a brief two-fight winning streak snapped with a split decision loss to Modestas Bukauskas last May.
Sy competed for several of Europe's top promotions before joining the UFC in May 2024. He's 3-1 in his first four bouts with the company, with three victories against lower-end opponents (Brendson Ribeiro, Da Woon Jung, Tuco Tokkos) and a woeful unanimous decision loss to Alonzo Menifield as a whopping -700 favorite. I like him, but I expect inconsistency along the way and I'm not sure how much long-term upside there is here given the fact Sy will turn 31 years of age in November. A large part of the attraction here is the fact Sy competes in arguably the thinnest division in the sport.
Inactivity on the feet has really hurt Cutelaba in recent years. He landed 58 significant strikes his last time out against Bukauskas and that was his highest total in nearly four years. He's a very good wrestler, averaging a whopping 4.26 takedowns per 15 minutes, but he can be inactive at times from top position and that has hurt Cutelaba in the past.
He's probably worried about getting knocked out and durability has been an issue for Cutelaba in the past, so I get it, but in short, I'd like to see him becomes more aggressive is an opportunity presents itself.
I'm curious to see how Sy goes about attempting to attack Cutelaba. The most obvious path to victory would be to remain at distance and pick his opponent apart on the feet given he has a three-inch edge in height and whopping eight-inch edge in reach. That said, he's by no means a point striker. Sy is at his best when he can close the distance and use his strength and athleticism.
I'd have more interest in Cutelaba if Sy wasn't such a good athlete. He moves very well and has excellent footwork. The price seems high given how hard Cutelaba hits, but Sy still seems like the correct side.
UFC VEGAS 114 PICK: Sy
Featherweight
Andre Fili (25-12-0, 1NC) v. Jose Delgado (10-2-0)
DK Salaries: Fili ($6,900), Delgado ($9,300)
Vegas Odds: Fili (+260), Delgado (-325)
Set to turn 36 years old in June, Fili has been with the UFC since October 2013. His company debut came at UFC 166, a knockout of Jeremy Larsen. He's fought the likes of Yair Rodriguez, Calvin Kattar, Michael Johnson, Bryce Mitchell, Dan Ige, and Cub Swanson. Lately, it hasn't gone as well. Fili has alternated wins and losses in his eight fights dating back to April 2022. If that trend holds, he's in trouble against Delgado. Even his last two wins (Swanson, Christian Rodriguez) have come via split decision.
There's zero doubt Delgado has the higher ceiling of the two, if for no other reason than the fact he's roughly eight years younger than Fili. Jose earned his UFC opportunity with a knockout win on Dana White's Contender Series in August 2024. He then proceeded to knock out both Hyder Amil and Connor Matthews in his first two official fights with the company before dropping a unanimous decision to Nathaniel Wood in October in which he probably deserved a better fate. An Arizona native that trains locally at the MMA Lab, Delgado's ceiling is likely that of a hard-hitting, fringe top-15 guy.
Both men are 5-foot-11 with a 74-inch reach, so there will be no size advantage either way.
I touched on Delgado's power earlier. Six of his 10 career victories have come via knockout. On top of having power, he's ridiculous aggressive on the feet. He landed a whopping 134 significant strikes against Wood despite the setback. Many power puncher lack volume because they load up on every single shot they throw. Not Delgado.
Fili has been mixing in his wrestling a bit more of late and I think that's the key here. On the whole, he's averaging 2.22 takedowns per 15 minutes, a perfectly reasonable number given how large the sample size is over his time with the company. He's taken down each of his past three opponents, including landing two-plus shots in two of those fights. Delgado's get up game is strong, so the big challenge will be keeping him down if he gets him there.
One thing worth monitoring is the fact Delgado missed weight by a pound for the Wood fight. Monitor him on the scale on Friday.
Assuming he has no issues on the scale, I like Delgado to win, but I think Fili is the better DK play. There's no way there's a $2,400 salary gap between these two and virtually every single Fili fight is competitive no matter the end result. I think he finds a way to keep this closer than the DK salaries and Vegas odds would lead you to believe.
UFC VEGAS 114 PICK: Delgado
Other Bouts
Featherweight
Marwan Rahiki (7-0-0) v. Harry Hardwick (13-4-1)
DK Salaries: Rahiki ($9,200), Hardwick ($7,000)
Vegas Odds: Rahiki (-250), Hardwick (+205)
UFC VEGAS 114 PICK: Rahiki
Heavyweight
Vitor Petrino (13-2-0) v. Steven Asplund (7-1-0)
DK Salaries: Petrino ($9,000), Asplund ($7,200)
Vegas Odds: Petrino (-240), Asplund (+195)
UFC VEGAS 114 PICK: Asplund
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Flyweight
Charles Johnson (18-8-0) v. Bruno Silva (15-7-2, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Johnson ($8,700), Silva ($7,500)
Vegas Odds: Johnson (-185), Silva (+155)
UFC VEGAS 114 PICK: Silva
Middleweight
Brad Tavares (21-12-0) v. Eryk Anders (17-9-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Tavares ($8,300), Anders ($7,900)
Vegas Odds: Tavares (-140), Anders (+120)
UFC VEGAS 114 PICK: Tavares
Welterweight
Chris Curtis (32-12-0, 1NC) v. Myktybek Orolbai (15-2-1)
DK Salaries: Curtis ($7,100), Orolbai ($9,100)
Vegas Odds: Curtis (+220), Orolbai (-270)
UFC VEGAS 114 PICK: Orolbai
Lightweight
Bolaji Oki (10-3-0) v. Manoel Sousa (13-1-0)
DK Salaries: Oki ($6,800), Sousa ($9,400)
Vegas Odds: Oki (+220), Sousa (-270)
UFC VEGAS 114 PICK: Sousa
Bantamweight
Luan Lacerda (13-3-0) v. Hecher Sosa (14-1-0)
DK Salaries: Lacerda ($7,300), Sosa ($8,900)
Vegas Odds: Lacerda (+190), Sosa (-230)
UFC VEGAS 114 PICK: Sosa
Women's Bantamweight
Bia Mesquita (6-0-0) v. Montserrat Rendon (7-1-0)
DK Salaries: Mesquita ($9,500), Rendon ($6,700)
Vegas Odds: Mesquita (-575), Rendon (+425)
UFC VEGAS 114 PICK: Mesquita
Bantamweight
Elijah Smith (9-1-0) v. Su Young Yu (16-3-0, 2NC)
DK Salaries: Smith ($8,500), Yu ($7,700)
Vegas Odds: Smith (-200), Yu (+165)
UFC VEGAS 114 PICK: Smith
Women's Strawweight
Piera Rodriguez (11-2-0) v. Sam Hughes (11-6-0)
DK Salaries: Rodriguez ($8,400), Hughes ($7,800)
Vegas Odds: Rodriguez (-155), Hughes (+130)
UFC VEGAS 114 PICK: Hughes
Note: All odds accurate as of time of posting, and taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook, if available. Check out DraftKings to bet on MMA Odds and use the DraftKings promo code for a great welcome offer.
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DraftKings MMA Scoring
Note: Scoring has been updated as of early-2021! Please review the scoring changes below.
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 PTS
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 PTS
Control Time: +0.03 PTS/SECOND
Takedown (TD): +5 PTS
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 PTS
Knockdown (KD): +10 PTS
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 PTS
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 PTS
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 PTS
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 PTS
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 PTS
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 PTS
Quick Win Bonus: +25 PTS
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any Distance Strike or Clinch/Ground Strikes that are considered "Power Strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 Pts
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable amount of time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
