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Note: Time on Ice projections and picks can change frequently throughout the day due to injuries and changes to line combinations, especially power-play lines. I encourage readers to check the comments section below for any last-minute updates prior to puck drop.
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Card Overview: This looks like the best card since I started writing seven days ago. A couple of building blocks, along with a couple of injury-dependent plays that are close to building blocks. Heck, the script-dependent plays could be building blocks on a lighter card.
BUILDING BLOCKS
Moritz Seider 26.5 vs. Los Angeles Kings - 7:00 p.m. ET (MORE)
Seider has been on a minutes tear for a couple of weeks now, and while those runs generally come to an end after a week or two, this one should continue through the Olympics because the number two defenseman on Detroit, Simon Edvinsson, is out through the break. Edvinsson is averaging over 22 minutes per game this season, which is a lot of minutes to absorb. Seider clocked in at over 28 minutes in his most recent game, even though the Red Wings were ahead the whole way and ended up winning 5-1.
Roman Josi 25.25 at Boston Bruins - 7:00 p.m. ET (MORE)
Josi's minutes have been down this season, but we've seen an uptick over the past week or so. In addition, Nicolas Hague is out for this game, which opens up about 19 minutes of ice time. Just like Seider, Josi's minutes were already on the way up, now we throw an injury into the mix, so there's no reason why we should see a decline. In the two most recent games without Hague, Josi put in 25+ and 28+ minutes. As long as this one stays close, he should see more minutes than his line.
INJURY DEPENDENT
Charlie McAvoy 23.5 vs. Nashville Predators - 7:00 p.m. ET (MORE)
McAvoy has been a staple in this section for the past week. First it was Henri Jokiharju out with injury and now it's Nikita Zadorov. Zadorov is averaging more ice time than Jokiharju, so even though Jokiharju is back, there should be more minutes to absorb for McAvoy. McAvoy needed overtime to go over the 24-minute mark on Monday, but that was due to some lost ice time from an injury in the 1st period. As long as he's healthy, and this game stays relatively close, he should put in 24+ minutes.
Drew Doughty 23.75 at Detroit Red Wings - 7:00 p.m. ET (MORE)
Doughty has been a minutes hound for most of his career, but for whatever reason, that hasn't been the case this season. I think that's about to change, however, as it feels like he's about to go on a run here. I've been following TOI for three years now, and as much as injuries and lineup changes play a part, there is still this element of a coach getting into a rhythm with a player. Beyond that rhythm, there's another way Doughty gets more ice time, and that's the possible absence of Joel Edmundson, who missed practice on Monday. It's always nice when there are multiple avenues to a win.
SCRIPT DEPENDENT
I won't spend as much time on these plays because they're mostly dependent on the game script going in their favor. However, these picks can be used to fill out your plays if needed. I'll only put players in this category if the script is supposed to be in their favor.
Rasmus Dahlin 25 at Toronto Maple Leafs - 7:00 p.m. ET (MORE)
Dahlin was in the midst of one of those inexplicable minutes increases prior to this past Thursday, and then he got hit with some bad luck in the form of two penalties and an unfavorable script. The result was fewer minutes than projected in the past two games. In his most recent game, the Sabres built a 5-0 lead and simply didn't need him on the ice much in the 3rd period. I still think a big minutes game is out there, as long as he doesn't run into any bad breaks. This pick is fairly close to a building block, but I put it here because a trailing script would seal him going over 25 minutes.
Macklin Celebrini 22 at Vancouver Canucks - 10:00 p.m. ET (LESS)
Celebrini was on a run of three straight games with fewer minutes than his line, but that ended on Friday. His run coincided with the return of Will Smit,h and it really should have continued through Friday, but the Rangers just couldn't stay out of the penalty box. The Rangers went to the box seven times, which resulted in over 8.5 power-play minutes for Celebrini. That's an absurd amount of power play time. His reduced minutes should hold for this game, so as long as we don't see a ton of penalties from Vancouver and the Sharks don't fall behind early, Celebrini should have less than 22 minutes.
