Weekly Fantasy Golf Preview: THE PLAYERS Championship

This article is part of our Weekly Fantasy Golf Preview series.

THE PLAYERS Championship

TPC Sawgrass
Ponte Vedra Beach, FL

The PGA Tour heads north to TPC Sawgrass for the latest edition of golf's "fifth major" -- THE PLAYERS Championship.

I've written the PGA preview for RotoWire for about 25 years, and although this preview has changed over the years, I generally like to start it with some thoughts on the current state of the PGA Tour. The theme usually reveals itself at some point on Sunday afternoon and while I've written on all things Tiger, LIV golf and COVID, I must say, I can't recall a topic emerging quite so often in the first few months of a season like that of "closing if hard" has this season.

First it was Hideki Matsuyama, then Shane Lowry and now the latest high quality golfer who failed to close is Daniel Berger. Don't get me wrong, Berger's inability to win on Sunday didn't much resemble the other two, but the fact of the matter is, he had a commanding lead on the back-nine on Sunday and he didn't win. In Berger's case, he didn't appear to have any one thing that derailed his chances to win, but a blown lead is tough to get over. Berger, like the others, will be fine, but man, after being out of action so long and having it right there, that's gotta sting.

As for why this keeps happening, I can't say, maybe it's a snowball effect. The golfers on the PGA Tour know it's hard to close, but when they see Hideki fail, then Lowry, who knows, maybe it starts to build and it becomes a force of its own, not just a notion. We'll get another look at the phenomenon this weekend as you know the leader will have a lot of negative thoughts as he heads towards 17 and 18. Will he be able to hold on, or will he let the pressure of the problematic tee shots on the final two holes wreck him? 

Speaking of this week, did you know it was PLAYERS week? Yeah, the PGA Tour has done a good job of getting the word out, so if you hadn't heard, then you probably don't watch much golf. No, it's not a major, but honestly, who cares? The players treat it like a major and golf fans love it, so why does it need that designation?

Okay, as for the golf, expect the unexpected. Nobody owns this course, metaphorically of course, as in, there are some good track records here, but no one is a lock to play well. The reasons are the unpredictability of the weather and the course itself. If you're on the wrong side of the draw, where weather is a large factor, then hello water balls. As for the course, it's the water that gets into the minds of the golfer. The 17th is not a difficult hole under perfect conditions but throw a little wind in there and suddenly the best players in the world are having trouble hitting a green from 135 yards. The tee shot on the 18th might be as tough as it gets on the PGA Tour. Cut too much of the water and you risk a penalty stroke. Play it too safe and you're looking at a really long approach shot and you might be stuck under some tree limbs. 

Back to the weather, it looks like wind could be a factor on Thursday and Friday, with rain a potential problem on Thursday. This could be one of those weeks where you need to get on the good side of the draw.

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LAST YEAR

Rory McIlroy shot a final-round 68 on his way to a playoff victory over J.J. Spaun.

FAVORITES

All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook as of 4:30 PM ET Tuesday.

Scottie Scheffler (+480) 

I said to myself on Sunday that there is no way Scheffler should be less than 4-1 this week and what do you know, he's +480.  I saw him at 4-1 in some spots, so perhaps the public is pushing this number higher. Whatever the reason, it should actually be higher. Yes, I'm saying it, the odds for Scheffler here offer zero value. He could still win and win easily, but 5-1 for a guy who has struggled out of the gate in three of his past four starts and failed to play well on the weekend just a few days ago, is insane. With that said, he could easily open with a 65 and cruise to an eight-stroke victory, that's just how good he is. Scheffler has a good track record here, he won this event in 2023 and 2024, but he had a good track record at Bay Hill as well and that didn't help him. I'm hoping he rebounds, but at this price it's just not worth it.

Rory McIlroy (16-1)

This one comes with a caveat obviously and that's "if he's healthy", which we won't really know until Thursday, or earlier if he happens to WD, but for now, there's actually some value here. His odds are a bit inflated because of the back injury, but if you were to take him to win and he WD before his tee time on Thursday, that's a refund. The problem with that logic though is that you know he wants to defend here, so he may tee it up, not at 100% and try to give it a go. In that case, you might be throwing your money away. McIlroy's track record here is all over the place, he's got two wins, but also five missed cuts in 15 starts. I wouldn't go with McIlroy this week, but there's a case to be made that the value is there with the inflated odds.

Collin Morikawa (18-1)

A new member emerges to round out the top-3. I've made mention of the top-3 a few times this season and how it's interesting to see who that third player is from week to week. For most of this season it's been Tommy Fleetwood, but after a decent start, he's faded a bit, so in strides Morikawa, who has played very well this season. I was skeptical of Morikawa as recently as this past week, but he just keeps sticking around. Morikawa had a sharp drop-off in his game in recent years, but he seems to have found his old form and if he keeps this up, he just might grab another major this season. As for this week, his track record here is not great, it probably doesn't qualify as good as he's finished outside the top-40 in 3/5 starts, but he does have two top-15s, so on occasion he has been able to get around this course. He'll have to keep up his form to have a chance, but there is some value here.

Visit our golf betting section for the latest PGA odds and finishing props from multiple sportsbooks.

THE NEXT TIER

Si Woo Kim (22-1)          

Kim came out of the gates on fire when he first joined the PGA Tour, but it wasn't until he won here in 2017 that he caught everyone's attention. Since then, he's been playing more rounds than just about everyone and producing at a very high level. Though he's had a lot of success over the past decade, this year might be the best start he's ever had to a PGA Tour season. Though he's slowed a bit since carding three consecutive top-6s in January/February, he's still showing enough form to be dangerous here. Kim has three top-10s here, including that win in 2017 and he's never missed a cut in nine starts, although he did WD in 2022.

Xander Schauffele (30-1)

I mentioned that top-3 earlier and Schauffele was once a member of that top-3. In fact, he was in firm grasp of a top-3 spot prior to his injury a couple years ago. He's had trouble getting back to that level, but he did win an event in the fall this past year. It's only a matter of time before Schauffele gets back to his major-winning form and when he does, the days of 30-1 will be long gone. Schauffele has either been good here or bad, with very little in between. He's missed the cut three times in seven starts, but he also has a pair of runner-up finishes. If he's on the right side of the draw and he starts well, this could be the week he retakes his spot in the top-tier.

Akshay Bhatia (40-1)

I know, the API-PLAYERS double is usually reserved for players like Scottie Scheffler, but Bhatia has shown a ton of game this year and a complete lack of fear when battling the best players, so why not another win? It's certainly going to be tough to pull off, but Bhatia has been on a tear since he finished 3rd at the WM Phoenix Open in early February. He's made a habit of hanging around the top of the leaderboard at big events this season, and what he did this past week at the API should be a huge confidence boost. Bhatia does not have much experience on this course, but he did finish T3 here this past year.     

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LONG SHOTS

Jake Knapp (45-1)         

Like with McIlroy, we're getting some inflated odds on Knapp because he also withdrew this past weekend. Again, we don't know if he's going to be 100 percent but unlike McIlroy, Knapp was just dealing with an illness, so he should be ready to go. If he's close to 100%, then he's going to be in contention on the weekend, he' got the game and the profile to succeed here. Knapp has only played this event twice, but he's made the cut both times, landing a T12 here this past year. If Knapp's form survived the week off, he should be a factor on the weekend.

Daniel Berger (55-1)     

It might sound strange, but I think I have more confidence in Berger than I do Bhatia. The reason of course is determination. Winning can make one relax but losing and losing after you thought you were going to win, could and should drive someone even harder. Now, this theory only works if the golfer in question is mentally strong but considering how Berger battled to get back from injury, I'd say he's certainly capable of overcoming a rough finish. Berger's track record here is pretty good, with seven made cuts in eight tries. He's also landed in the top 20 in half of his starts. If he can put Sunday behind him, he has a chance to make another run.  

ONE-AND-DONE LEAGUES

Highly-Chosen Pick: Collin Morikawa – Morikawa was in this same spot for the API, but he wasn't quite as popular as I thought he would be. Perhaps there were a lot of OAD players holding him for this week? I certainly wasn't pegging him herewhen the schedule came out, but he has played his way into consideration. I should say though, he's atop this list only because Scheffler and McIlroy has issues. Scheffler is not at the top of his game right now and McIlroy has injury concerns. Morikawa is likely the safest play and has plenty of upside as well.

Moderately-Chosen Pick: Ludvig Aberg – This is the largest purse all season, so there aren't many OAD players that are going to take a chance and by take a chance, I mean take someone that isn't a really big name. That's why I don't have Kim listed in this spot -- well that and many players have already used Kim because he was so hot to start the season -- but back to my first point. Most OAD players are going to stick to the superstars and while Aberg hasn't quite reached that level yet, he's close and his recent play has caught a lot of attention. I won't be making this play, but I can't argue with anyone that does.     

Lightly-Chosen Pick: Daniel Berger – As I just mentioned, anyone not in that top tier or just outside that tier is going to be lightly used, and Berger certainly falls into that category. Add to that, there will be many OAD players staying away from him because of the way he blew a big lead on Sunday. I'm not really worried about his mental state because I feel like Berger has viewed his comeback like a long journey and this past week was just another step to getting back to his old form. This might be going too far down the list for some, but I think he's a pretty safe play this week.             

Buyer Beware: Rory McIlroy – Yeah, I'm taking the easy way out. McIlroy won here this past year and his form prior to this past week was fine, so in a perfect world, he'd be a good pick this week, but can you really use him? Your one chance to use the second-best chip you have, when he's having back issues? I'd feel much more comfortable placing a win wager on him than using him in a OAD format because disaster could be right around the corner. Back issues are weird, sometimes they linger for weeks and sometimes they disappear and you're suddenly 100%, but this is the largest purse of the season, you can't take a chance on a guy who might not be able to finish.   

My Pick: Collin Morikawa – I hate to go with what will likely be a very popular play, but Morikawa just feels like the right pick. He's been locked in since Pebble Beach, finishing no worse than T7 in his past three starts and he just feels like a different golfer this season. I was wondering if his play would fall off after his win at the AT&T, but no, he's played very well in the two starts since then, both against strong fields. My only concern is that he's about 40 percent here, just two good showings in five starts, but this is a ball-strikers course and Morikawa is as good as anyone with the irons when he's on, so I'm going to give him a try.  

Previous Results

View the PGA earnings report to find total winnings and winnings per entry via our fantasy golf stats pages.

FANDUEL PICKS

Upper Range: Si Woo Kim ($11,100)
Middle Range: Sepp Straka ($9,900)
Lower Range: Corey Conners ($8,700)

SURVIVOR LEAGUES

My Pick: Adam Scott – Well, Keegan Bradley ruined my streak, so it's time to go a little off script and make a surprise play in the hopes that maybe some bigger names miss the cut. Scott has a long history here, with 23 starts in total. 18 of those have resulted in successful trips to the weekend. He did miss the cut here this past year, but his form is much better now that it was 12 months ago. Scott has yet to miss a cut this season and he's finished top-15 in his past two starts on the PGA Tour, both Signature Events.     

Previous Results