This article is part of our Golf Picks series.
THE PLAYERS Championship Betting Preview
The PGA Tour's flagship event and golf's 'fifth major' is upon us for this week's THE PLAYERS Championship in Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida. TPC Sawgrass will host a 123 player field that is headlined by tournament favorite Scottie Scheffler at +435. Last year, Rory McIlroy (7-1) defeated J.J. Spaun in a three-hole Monday playoff for his second victory at the event. McIlroy and Scheffler are both eyeing their third PLAYERS title, although McIlroy is dealing with back spasms that caused him to withdraw after two rounds at Bay Hill. In-form players Akshay Bhatia, Collin Morikawa and Ludvig Aberg will look to roll their hot play into their first win at the Tour's headquarters.
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of 12:00 PM ET Wednesday
Course Overview
Par 72, 7,352 yards
These are the average rankings of THE PLAYERS Championship winners since 2021:
- SG: Off-the-Tee: 20.0
- SG: Approach: 5.2
- SG: Around-the-Green: 18.0
- SG: Putting: 27.6
- SG: Tee-to-Green: 9.2
- Driving Distance: 10.6
- Driving Accuracy: 38.8
Being such a prestigious event, golf fans know TPC Sawgrass well, and Pete Dye's Stadium Course tests every aspect of one's game. Water comes into play on all but two holes - more than any other course on Tour, and no more than five players have reached double-digit under-par in three of the last four years. In addition to the numerous water hazards, players will be faced with a venue that has a whopping 94 bunkers throughout the course and challenging four-inch rough.
We can see from the stats above that iron play is key, with the winner ranking seventh or better in SG: Approach since 2019. The closing stretch from 13-18 tends to be difficult, with the short par-5 16th hole as the main scoring opportunity. The island green par-3 17th is obviously the signature hole, with the par-4 18th that has water up the entire left side also being a memorable and dangerous finishing hole. If you drive the ball well, you will have scoring opportunities, but mistakes around here can be compounded into double bogeys.
Overall, I'm giving an advantage to accurate drivers, good iron players from 100-150 yards and those that rank well in bogey avoidance. One interesting tidbit to note for outright bettors is that although we've seen some surprise winners over the years, the last longshot winner was Webb Simpson in 2018 back when the event was played in May.
Course History
The following players have the lowest scoring average at TPC Sawgrass over the last five years (minimum eight rounds):
- Scottie Scheffler: 69.9
- Hideki Matsuyama: 70.1
- Corey Conners: 70.4
- Tom Hoge: 70.5
- Brian Harman: 70.7
Scheffler tops the list in large part due to back-to-back wins in 2023 and 2024, which he followed up with a T20 last year. And while his form here has been great, his recent play draws some cause for concern, at least by his standards as he's failed to post a top-10 in consecutive starts for the first time since last March. Scheffler has failed to gain a stroke per round on approach all season and has lost strokes in the category in each of the last two weeks. Another player with a strong track record here that we don't want to overlook is Matsuyama (40-1 odds), who has seven top-25s over 10 appearances with two top-10s since 2023. Just like Scheffler, he'll look to bounce back after losing strokes on approach at Riviera and Bay Hill following a strong start to the year.
Current Form
These five golfers, on a per-round basis, have gained the most strokes on approach across their last 20 rounds:
- Si Woo Kim: 1.27
- Collin Morikawa: 1.07
- Daniel Berger: 1.03
- Justin Rose: 1.02
- Ryan Gerard: 1.01
Kim has a nice lead at the top, having gained strokes in the category in 11 consecutive PGA Tour events, including at least a stroke per round seven times. Unfortunately, he's only gained shots putting in 1-of-7 events this year but has still managed five top-15s nonetheless. A longshot champion here in 2017, Kim enters as the fourth favorite at +2450 odds. Meanwhile, Berger (51-1) will look to shake off a disappointing playoff loss after being unable to convert a five-shot lead through 36 holes. His Florida roots appear to have helped him around TPC Sawgrass, where he's posted a top-20 three straight times. Dating back to last year, Berger has finished no worse than T32 across five starts in the Sunshine State.
THE PLAYERS Championship Bets: Outright Picks
Collin Morikawa (21-1)
I hit a top-5 wager with Morikawa in last week's column, so why not stick with him? He's one of the hottest players on Tour with three consecutive top-10s, and a big part of his resurgence this year is that he's up from 136th last year to 64th this year in driving distance while still maintaining his accuracy.
Cameron Young (33-1)
Although it's early in the year, Young is gaining shots in every strokes gained category and is notably 16th in SG: Tee-to-Green. His results here haven't been great but we know that's not mandatory for success at TPC Sawgrass. Young is coming off back-to-back top-10s in signature events.
Justin Rose (86-1)
A boom-or-bust play, which is best suited for outright bets (or large DFS contests). Rose has teed-it-up five times this year with a win and three missed cuts. He's also no stranger to stepping up when the lights are the brightest. Rose finished T6 here in 2023.
THE PLAYERS Championship Bets: Top-10 Wagers
Harry Hall (+580)
Hall isn't an exciting golfer by any means, but he quietly has a pair of top-10s and four top-25s through six events this year. From 100 yards and in, he's as good as anyone not named Scheffler and his ability to avoid bogeys will come in handy this week.
Max Homa (+850)
Homa has improved in each of his last three events, culminating with a T13 at PGA National two weeks ago, another water heavy Florida venue. We're starting to see flashes of his old form, and he's much more in control of the driver than he was a year ago.
Joel Dahmen (10-1)
Dahmen will be reunited with former caddie Geno Bonnalie for this week only, and the two have paired together for two top-15s across six appearances at the event. The veteran has looked much better this year with two top-10s already.
THE PLAYERS Championship Bets: Head-to-Head Matchups
Matt Fitzpatrick (-114) over Viktor Hovland
Fitzpatrick disappointed as a popular choice last week with a T41 result, but he'll be more under the radar this time around and has two top-10s at Sawgrass since 2021 and three top-25s this year. Hovland's inconsistency makes him a risky option in matchups, and he's suddenly lost quite a bit of distance off the tee, resulting in him to losing strokes in the category in 3-of-4 tournaments this year.
Sam Burns (-120) over Sahith Theegala
From a fan perspective, it's nice to see Theegala playing well again. He finished T9 here two years ago but had to lead the field in SG: Putting to do it. He's not particularly long off the tee while being sporadic, so I'm comfortable fading him here. Burns on the other hand is longer and straighter with driver, an excellent putter and still the superior golfer of the two despite the recent form.
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