Lamar Jackson

Jackson was limited to 12 games for the second consecutive season last year, his campaign cut short by a Week 13 knee injury. Prorating his 11 complete games to a full season would give him nearly 3,500 passing yards and 26 touchdowns, which combined with his elite rushing production would make for a huge fantasy season. And that was with his completion percentage (62.3) and YPA (6.9) declining to career lows as he was saddled with perhaps the league's worst wideout corps. The Ravens addressed it this offseason, first signing Odell Beckham, who missed all of last season recovering from an ACL tear, and then drafting Zay Flowers 22nd overall. A healthy season out of 2021 first-round pick Rashod Bateman, who was limited to six games last year because of a Lisfranc injury, would be just as important. Tight end Mark Andrews remains the best target in the offense, and fellow TE Isaiah Likely is also a receiving threat. Perhaps most important is a new scheme, swapping out Greg Roman's run-heavy offense for a more pass-centered offense under new OC Todd Monken. After much uncertainty about his future, Jackson signed a five-year deal with $135 million guaranteed at signing in May. He remains the best running QB in the league, with 1,000 yards a predictable target for a full season. If the passing game comes around, a top-5 fantasy QB season is virtually assured.

Jackson had a lot going against him last year. He lost running backs J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards to season-ending injuries before Week 1, followed by LT Ronnie Stanley in the opener, and then later in the year Jackson himself missed five games (and most of a sixth) to illness and injury. It’s too bad, because his per-game numbers were strong. In his 11 full games, Jackson averaged a career-high 260.5 passing yards, while 69.3 rushing yards per game topped the previous year’s pace. Prorated to 17 games, those numbers would vault him into the top 5 of fantasy QBs, even with his downturn in total touchdowns (18). His completion percentage (64.4) matched the previous year, and his 7.5 YPA (8th) was slightly improved on a 9.3-yard average target depth (3rd). The biggest issue was a career-high 13 interceptions with his 3.4 INT rate second highest in the league. In any event, a year of good health is most important — for Jackson, the running backs and second-year WR Rashod Bateman, who was limited to 12 games in an otherwise promising rookie season. Bateman is the new No. 1 after Marquise Brown was traded on draft day, leaving the Ravens with only TE Mark Andrews as a sure thing among their pass catchers. The offensive line got help with first-round pick Tyler Linderbaum, one of the best center prospects in years, and the Ravens seem to be gearing up for a return to their run-first ways after attempting 611 passes (ninth most) last season. As the league’s best running quarterback, it won’t take much for Jackson to bounce back into the top 5 at the position again, even if Baltimore’s passing game is a work in progress.

No one expected Jackson to replicate his 2019 MVP campaign, but the slip from QB1 in fantasy scoring to QB10 didn't make his fantasy managers happy. However, Jackson mostly held the big gains he made in efficiency stats like completion percentage and bad-pass percentage. He was pretty much the same quarterback, but he lost a couple passing attempts per game, his receivers dropped more throws (3.5 percent drop rate in 2019, 7th lowest; 5.3 percent last season, 6th highest) and, most notably (and predictably), his red-zone TD pass percentage fell from a league-high 40 percent to 32.7, costing him five TDs. Jackson was arguably better throwing downfield last season, posting a 48.9 percent on-target rate (41.8 percent in 2019) on attempts of 20-plus yards and increasing his completion rate slightly to 37.8 percent. Jackson also rushed for 201 fewer yards, but his 1,005 was still the third most by a QB in NFL history, and he matched his rushing TDs from the year before with seven. So perhaps the proper way to look at it is despite regressing in several areas, he was still a top-10 QB. The Ravens added WR Sammy Watkins, who brings some size and speed opposite Marquise Brown, and first-round pick Rashod Bateman is a skilled route-runner who could have a role once he returns from August groin surgery. A healthier offensive line is key -- left tackle Ronnie Stanley missed nine games. But the notion that defenses have figured out Jackson seems premature, and his ceiling is so high it's entirely worth betting on him to bounce back.

The unanimous MVP last year, Jackson had arguably the most dominant season by a QB in NFL history. The rushing production is obvious — QB records for rushing yards (1,206) and rushes of 10-plus yards (47). But Jackson also proved his critics wrong, as his passing was nearly as historic. He threw a league-high 36 TD passes on 401 attempts for an 8.98 TD pass percentage, the highest since 1977, save for Peyton Manning's 2004 season (9.86). What's more, with only six interceptions (1.49 INT percentage), Jackson became one of three QBs in NFL history with a TD pass rate higher than 8.55 and an INT rate lower than 1.50. The others? Tom Brady (2007) and Aaron Rodgers (2011). Jackson's improvement in accuracy saw his completion percentage increase by nearly 10 points from his rookie year, vaulting from bottom 5 to top 10. And his bad-pass percentage went from 24.7, third highest in the NFL, to 19.2 percent, sandwiched between Russell Wilson (19.0) and Rodgers (19.3). Jackson was untouchable in the red zone, throwing 24 TD passes without an INT and a 40.0 TD pass percentage, third highest since 1991. That's bound to regress closer to the league average of 23.2 percent, but perhaps Jackson's overall regression in efficiency will be offset somewhat by increased attempts (401 last season, 26th). And Jackson could lose about 20 rushing yards per game and still finish the season with the third most rushing yards by a QB in league history. The receiving corps looks solid after a promising rookie campaign by Marquise Brown and a breakout season by TE Mark Andrews. RG Marshal Yanda retired, but the line still has standout tackles. Even if regression comes calling, Jackson can afford to take a hit and remain elite.

Jackson ended the Joe Flacco era in Baltimore in Week 11 last year, starting for the injured veteran and never letting him back on the field. As expected, Jackson was dynamite as a runner, topping 65 yards on the ground in six of seven starts. Also as expected, Jackson struggled in the passing game, with his 58.2 completion percentage ranking 35th among 38 quarterbacks with at least 150 attempts. What's more, he rarely challenged defenses deep - just 13 passes longer than 20 yards, including only five completions. His 24.7 bad pass percentage was third highest in the NFL, and he reached 200 passing yards just once. Still, a run-heavy attack - a leage-high 63.7 rushing percentage Weeks 11-17 ­- helped Baltimore win six of its last seven games to reach the playoffs. An aggressive running game will be the basis of the offense again this season, perhaps even more so with former running game coordinator Greg Roman promoted to offensive coordinator. That will help prop up Jackson's fantasy stats, but a heavy workload on the ground also exposes him to injury, and he fumbled 12 times last year (losing four). Even modest improvements in passing efficiency will go a long way for the fantasy prospects of Jackson, the first QB since Michael Vick capable of a 1,000-yard rushing season. Jackson's limited passing success last year came on throws to tight end Mark Andrews, who is now joined by rookie wideouts Marquise Brown (first round) and Miles Boykin (third round), along with veteran tailback Mark Ingram. There are more growing pains to come for the Baltimore passing game, but Jackson at least will have better athletes around him this year in his first shot as a Week 1 starter.

The Ravens traded up to draft Jackson, the 2016 Heisman winner, with the last pick of the first round. The plan is to develop him behind Joe Flacco this year, but the 33-year-old is coming off a horribly inefficient season and if he doesn't rebound quickly the team could turn to its new QB. At 6-2, 216, Jackson's size and speed allow him to create explosive plays with his arm and legs, but his accuracy needs work, as does his ability to throw on the run. He completed less than 60 percent of his passes each season at Louisville, but did improve year-over-year from 54.7 percent to 56.2 percent to 59.1 percent, without getting much help from his supporting cast. Jackson was a one-man show for the Cardinals, piling up 4,132 rushing yards, 50 rushing TDs and 69 passing TDs in 38 games, with 8.3 YPA and 6.3 YPC. Regardless of how things shake out this year, the Ravens likely will grab the salary cap savings next offseason and replace Flacco with the dynamic Jackson.