Kyler Murray

Murray missed the first half of last season recovering from ACL surgery. Perhaps to be expected, he didn’t look like his usual dual-threat self upon returning Week 10, with his passing particularly rusty. His last three games, though, showed marked improvement as he averaged 241 passing yards with six TDs and one interception. Murray rarely looked deep in his eight games, ranking 27th in downfield rate as just 7.8 percent of his attempts traveled beyond 20 yards. His 7.3-yard average target depth ranked 22nd, his 6.7 YPA 24th. When he did go deep, he wasn’t good, completing nine of 28 attempts for one TD and three INTs. In Murray’s defense, he didn’t have much to work with. That’s not the case this year after the Cardinals made Marvin Harrison the fourth overall pick in the draft and signed former Jags wideout Zay Jones. Those two will join TE Trey McBride, a 2022 second-round pick who broke out for 825 yards last season, and WR Michael Wilson, a 2023 third-round pick who had 565 yards on 58 targets last year (9.7 YPT). Murray’s rushing production gives him a solid fantasy floor, now more than a year and a half removed from the knee injury. He’ll need that to be a top 10 fantasy QB, as his lack of height (5-10) and inconsistent track record suggest he's unlikely to be an elite passer even with the upgraded pass-catching corps. He’ll also need good health -- he missed at least three games in each of the last three seasons, playing 33 of a possible 51 contests.

Murray tore the ACL and meniscus in his right knee Week 13 last season and is not expected to play any sooner than Week 4 this year. Joshua Dobbs and perhaps fifth-round pick Clayton Tune will take snaps until Murray is healthy. The bigger question is whether Murray will run as usual when he returns. The rushing -- he was on pace for about 700 yards last year -- propped up his fantasy value as his passing struggled. His YPA dropped to 6.1 -- last among 33 qualified QBs, largely because Murray just didn't throw downfield. His 6.6 average target depth ranked 28th, nearly a yard and a half off 2021, and only 27.4 percent of his attempts traveled more than 10 yards (sixth fewest). When he did go downfield, it usually didn't go well (1/6 TD/INT), as his on-target percentage on attempts of 20-plus yards dropped by nearly 23 percentage points to 36.7 percent (31st) and his 24.5 completion percentage was the worst of any qualified QB besides Jimmy Garoppolo. Part of the issue was Arizona's wideout corps, which was without DeAndre Hopkins the first six games due to suspension and then without Marquise Brown the next five games due to injury. That situation got worse this offseason when Hopkins was released in May. That leaves Brown as the No. 1 with two 5-7 WRs in Rondale Moore and Greg Dortch vying with 2023 third-round pick Michael Wilson for the No. 2 job. A healthy year out of tight end Zach Ertz, coming off an ACL tear, is even more important.

Murray took another step forward with his passing last season, setting career highs in on-target percentage (76.3), completion percentage (69.2) and YPA (7.9), each of which ranked top 6 in the league. His counting numbers suffered, though, because he missed three games with an ankle injury, and his rushing yards dropped by nearly 400 from the previous year. He still finished QB10 in fantasy, as only three quarterbacks scored more points per game. Murray was especially good throwing downfield last year. His 59.5 on-target percentage and 47.3 completion percentage were both highest of any QB with at least 50 attempts of 20-plus yards. Weekly consistency was more difficult, as Murray had one or fewer TD passes in eight of his 15 games, including a wild-card loss. After the disappointing finish to last season, Murray was entering the final year of his rookie contract, but the No. 1 overall pick in the 2019 NFL Draft landed a massive extension with the Cardinals in advance of training camp. As the coming campaign approaches, he'll have to deal with losing wideout Christian Kirk, who signed with Jacksonville, and, for six games, DeAndre Hopkins, who was suspended for PEDs. The Cardinals traded for WR Marquise Brown on draft day, and TE Zach Ertz, who thrived with Murray after being acquired midseason last year, returns. James Conner returns as well, though he stole some goal-line scores from Murray last year with 15 rushing TDs. Murray certainly faces questions entering camp, but he's still one of the league's best dual-threat quarterbacks, which means a top-5 fantasy season is within reach.

After an impressive rookie season, Murray was even better last year. He improved his completion percentage, on-target percentage, YPA and aDOT, finishing QB3 in fantasy scoring in essentially 15 games because he was injured on the first drive of Week 17. Murray is one of the best running QBs in the game, providing tremendous fantasy potential. His 11 rushing TDs last year tied for fourth most all-time by a QB. Nine of those came in the red zone, where he converted a league-high 37.5 percent of his carries into scores (min. 15 rushes). The dual-threat Murray became just the third QB in NFL history with multiple seasons of 3,000 passing yards and 500 rushing yards, joining Cam Newton and Russell Wilson. The arrival of DeAndre Hopkins gave Murray a dependable big-play receiver he didn't have in Year 1, as the two connected on a league-leading six pass plays of 40-plus yards. But Murray still didn't go downfield much more than he did in 2019 — 12.4 percent, a healthy rate, yet he had nearly the same rate of attempts within five yards of the line of scrimmage (54.5 percent), again foregoing intermediate throws (16.8 percent, 30th). If coach Kliff Kingsbury finally turns his strong arm loose, Murray's passing numbers could take a leap, which would help offset expected regression in his rushing TDs. The Cardinals added James Conner to a backfield with Chase Edmonds, both of whom are competent receivers, but the additions to the WR group are questions — 33-year-old A.J. Green and second-round pick Rondale Moore, an undersized (5-7) speed freak (4.31 40). Murray's rushing makes him a safe fantasy investment, and with room to grow in the passing game, he has the upside to improve on last year's fantasy ranking.

Murray was the runaway Offensive Rookie of the Year last season, becoming the sixth player in NFL history — and second rookie after Cam Newton in 2011 — to surpass 3,500 passing yards and 500 rushing yards. The 2019 first overall pick was the starter from the beginning and didn't seem to be held back by his 5-10 stature. Murray's dual-threat ability helped him finish QB8 in fantasy scoring, as he was second to Lamar Jackson in rushing yards (544) and YPC (5.9) by a quarterback. He also showed mature decision-making, setting an NFL rookie record with 211 consecutive attempts without an interception. Murray's arm proved as strong as advertised too. On attempts longer than 20 yards, he ranked third in the league in both completion percentage (42.6) and YPA (15.5). But the Cardinals didn't regularly try to stretch the field, perhaps due to a lack of weapons. Murray's average depth of target ranked 27th at 7.6 yards, and 55.9 percent of his attempts were no longer than five yards (6th), with a league-high 178 of those targets going to wide receivers. That should change this season with the trade for All-Pro wideout DeAndre Hopkins, who figures to transform the offense. Larry Fitzgerald gives Murray another set of sure hands, and a healthy Christian Kirk should contribute more than he did last season. Plus, Kenyan Drake is a solid receiving threat out of the backfield after the Cardinals dumped David Johnson in the Hopkins deal. How good can Murray be? Well, if he goes 3,500/500 again, he'd be just the third to do it more than once, after the aforementioned Newton and Russell Wilson.

The Cardinals are all in on Kyler Murray. They made the Heisman Trophy winner this year's top draft pick and already named him the starter. New coach Kliff Kingsbury said he'll tailor his air raid offense around Murray, who shouldn't face too steep of a learning curve after he excelled in Oklahoma's spread attack, joining Deshaun Watson as the only quarterbacks in FBS history with 4,000 passing yards and 1,000 rushing yards in a season. Murray has a strong arm, quick release and first-rate elusiveness - he was sacked on just 4.5 percent of his dropbacks last season. Height is his only issue, but it's a big one. At 5-10 1/8, he's the shortest quarterback drafted in the first round since 1953. He's also shorter than Russell Wilson, who despite all his success has trouble seeing over linemen at times. The Cardinals are betting that, like Wilson, Murray can overcome it with exceptional athleticism - he was picked ninth overall in the 2018 MLB Draft - and instinctive playmaking skills. He'll be surrounded by physically gifted receivers with spread-offense experience. Second-round pick Andy Isabella ran a 4.31 40 at the combine, and Christian Kirk played in the air raid at Texas Tech. Murray also has Larry Fitzgerald working the slot and an excellent receiver out of the backfield in David Johnson. The biggest question is how well the air raid offense will work in the NFL.