Christian Kirk

Kirk's second season in Jacksonville wasn't as successful as his first, even though his catch rate rose by 4.1 percentage points (67.1) and his YPT by a full yard (9.3) between 2022 and 2023. His per-game production was nearly identical (4.8 catches for 65.6) apart from dropping from eight touchdowns in 17 games to three TDs in 12. Kirk was actually on pace to top his 2022 numbers for catches and yards until a hernia/groin injury on the first snap of a Week 13 loss to Cincinnati ended his season prematurely. Apart from the decrease in TDs, he wasn't really impacted by Calvin Ridley's presence, with Kirk's target rise going from 22.0 percent in 2022 to 22.5 percent in 2023 and his YPRR rising even more (1.83 to 2.08). While those numbers aren't quite at the level of a true No. 1 receiver, Kirk should remain productive in his age-27 season ahead, possibly even getting a boost from the Jags swapping out Ridley for Gabe Davis and first-round pick Brian Thomas. The rookie and the former Bill still give defenses something to think about -- especially downfield -- but neither is as much of a threat as Ridley to handle a large target share. In any case, Kirk had 10 more catches and 124 more yards than Ridley at the time of his season-ending injury last year. Kirk might have made it back on the field if Jacksonville had gone on a playoff run, and there's been no indication the groin/hernia surgery will impact his preparation this offseason.

Kirk made good on a four-year, $72 million contract that was commonly criticized as an overpay last spring. He played all 17 games and set career highs for catches (84), targets (133), receiving yards (1,108) and TDs (eight), helping QB Trevor Lawrence rebound from a disastrous rookie campaign with a highly promising second season. Lawrence could take another step forward this year, but it won't necessarily aid Kirk's numbers if one of the main contributors is new wideout Calvin Ridley, who last played in October 2021 due to mental health struggles and a gambling suspension. Ridley cleared 1,300 yards in his last full season, and between him, Kirk, Zay Jones and TE Evan Engram, the Jags appear to have a well-rounded collection of weapons. Still, it isn't totally out of the question for Kirk to match or approach last year's numbers, even if he'll have a tough time clearing 130 targets again and will need to do it with improved efficiency.

Kirk enjoyed a breakout of sorts last year with career highs in catches, yards and yards per target in his fourth and final year with the Cardinals. But the production was largely driven by availability, as he played all 17 games after injuries limited him to 14 or fewer each previous year. The 2018 second-round pick was still a backup in most fantasy leagues, averaging 4.5 catches for 57.8 yards on 6.1 targets per game while finding paydirt only five times all season. The Jaguars believe Kirk, 25, still has room to grow, as they signed him in March to a four-year, $72 million contract that's been oft-mentioned as the overpay of the offseason. Which isn't to say Kirk is a bad player, but this isn't the first nor second time he's been set up for a breakout, and even last season it didn't really happen despite DeAndre Hopkins missing nearly half the year. Kirk did see more targets in the seven games Hopkins missed, but his YPT dropped a bit (8.4) in accordance with his volume rising (7.7 looks per game). He now heads to Jacksonville, where efficiency has been a problem for nearly every pass catcher who's worn teal and gold in recent years. The hope is that QB Trevor Lawrence and coach Doug Pederson can turn things around for the beleaguered franchise, in which case Kirk would be one of the main beneficiaries for fantasy.

After an inefficient, injury-plagued 2019, Kirk bounced back somewhat in 2020, with six TDs, three 40-yard catches and a 100-yard game in 14 contests. At 5-11, 200, Kirk has average size and good speed (4.47 40), but he’s playing opposite one of the league’s preeminent target hogs in DeAndre Hopkins. The Cardinals also signed A.J. Green this offseason as the declining veteran replacement for Larry Fitzgerald, and then drafted wideout Rondale Moore in the second round. The other problem for Kirk is the exciting but erratic Kyler Murray, who does much of his damage on the ground. Kirk is only 24, so he’s just now reaching his peak, and Green is far from a lock to stay healthy, but his upside is probably modest.

Kirk was set up nicely as the emergent top receiver on a fast-paced offense with a rising young star at quarterback. Then the Cardinals traded for DeAndre Hopkins. On a per-play basis, Kirk's 2019 numbers were poor - 10.4 YPC (29th among the league's 30 100-target receivers) and 6.6 YPT (28th). And he made few big plays - only six catches of 20-plus yards and one-catch of 40-plus. His 10 carries for 93 yards gave him a small boost, but he saw only 12 red-zone looks all year and scored a paltry three times. At 5-11, 200, Kirk has merely average size and decent speed (4.47 40). He's quick enough to handle the slot, though Larry Fitzgerald and Hopkins will probably see snaps there, potentially forcing Kirk out wide. Kirk is still slated to be the second receiver after Hopkins, with the 37-year old Fitzgerald getting some short looks, and this should be one of the higher volume passing attacks in the league. With Kyler Murray likely to improve in Year 2, Kirk has a good chance to contribute.

A broken foot ended his season after 12 games, but Kirk was surprisingly efficient - 13.7 YPC and 8.7 YPT as a rookie - while playing in one of the league's worst offenses. At 5-11, 200, Kirk has just average size and decent speed (4.47 40). He's quick enough to operate in the slot - in fact he returned punts both last year and in college - and is dangerous in open space. The problem for Kirk is that the Cardinals not only picked up Larry Fitzgerald's $11 million base salary, but also drafted Andy Isabella in the second round and Hakeem Butler in the fourth. At press time, the pecking order among the four isn't entirely clear, but new coach Kliff Kingsbury should direct an up-tempo offense with plenty of passing, and rookie quarterback Kyler Murray has the skills to make it exciting. Kirk will have to start from scratch in a new system along with the rookies, but he got over his broken foot this past winter and is expected to be ready for training camp.

The 47th overall pick, Kirk couldn't have landed in a much better spot. Playing opposite 35-year old Larry Fitzgerald, Kirk could be the team's No. 2 WR out of the gate. J.J. Nelson is too slight to be more than an occasional field-stretcher, and Brice Butler is a 28-year old journeyman who's never had a significant role. At 5-11, 200, Kirk has average size and good speed (4.47 40). He can operate out of the slot or outside, and he's dangerous in space - he was an elite punt returner in college. Sam Bradford is competent enough as a quarterback, until 10th overall pick Josh Rosen takes over - either way, the passing game in Arizona should be better than last year. Kirk had charges of disorderly conduct and property damage, stemming from a February incident, dismissed by the Scottsdale City Court in May, so while he's not in any legal jeopardy, he has less margin for errant behavior than the rest of his rookie class.