RotoWire analyzed 800 first-round selections across 25 NFL Drafts to reveal what every pick slot actually produces -- and what the Raiders, Jets, and every team picking in the 2026 NFL Draft should realistically expect.
With the 2026 NFL Draft set for April 23–25 in Pittsburgh -- and the Raiders, Jets, and Cardinals holding the top three picks -- front offices across the league are assigning value to their selections. But how much is a first-round pick actually worth?
RotoWire analyzed all 800 first-round selections across 25 draft classes (2000–2024) using Pro Football Reference career data.
Each pick slot was evaluated on three metrics: Pro Bowl rate (percentage of players at that slot who made at least one Pro Bowl), first-team All-Pro rate (percentage who earned at least one AP1 selection), and bust rate (percentage who started one or fewer full NFL seasons). The results, broken down pick by pick from 1 to 32, challenge conventional wisdom about where value really lives in Round 1.
Break down the top players at the 2026 NFL Combine with RotoWire's expert analysis.
Pick 5, Not Pick 1, Has the Highest First-Round Hit Rate
The No. 1 overall pick carries the highest Pro Bowl rate at 68%, but its All-Pro rate is just 8% -- the lowest in the top 10. That's because the pick almost always goes to a quarterback, and QBs rarely earn first-team All-Pro honors. The real sweet spot? Pick 5, which boasts a 36% All-Pro rate -- the highest of any slot in the entire first round -- alongside a 56% Pro Bowl rate and only a 13% bust rate. LaDainian Tomlinson, Ja'Marr Chase, Khalil Mack, and Jalen Ramsey all went fifth overall.
Bookmark our NFL Picks hub before next season kicks off.
Mid-First-Round Picks Outperform the Top 10 in Pro Bowl and All-Pro Rate
Pick 13 has quietly been the second-safest selection in Round 1 behind only No. 1 overall, with a 56% Pro Bowl rate and just a 9% bust rate. Aaron Donald -- arguably the greatest defensive player in NFL history -- went 13th in 2014. Tristan Wirfs and Brock Bowers followed in recent years.
Pick 12 outperforms picks 6 through 11 across the board, producing Micah Parsons, Odell Beckham Jr., and Fletcher Cox. And pick 24 is a statistical anomaly: its 48% Pro Bowl and 28% All-Pro rates rival top-5 picks, thanks largely to Aaron Rodgers and Ed Reed.
NFL Draft Bust Rate by Pick: Picks 22 and 26 Fail at a 57% Rate
The back third of Round 1 is where front offices need to tread carefully. Picks 22 and 26 share the highest bust rate in Round 1 at 57%. Pick 32 isn't far behind at 50%. But even in the danger zone, transformational talent can fall. Lamar Jackson went 32nd in 2018 and has since won two MVPs. Justin Jefferson went 22nd in 2020 and has become arguably the best receiver in football.
2026 NFL Draft Strategy: What 25 Years of Data Say Teams Should Do
Teams picking in the top 5 should feel confident they're getting a long-term starter -- the combined bust rate for picks 1 through 5 is just 17%. But teams in the mid-first shouldn't panic about sliding back. The data shows picks 12 and 13 are historically more productive than picks 8 through 11, making a trade-back from the top 10 a legitimate value play.
For teams picking in the 20s, the strategy is clear: swing for upside, not safety. The players who justify late first-round draft capital -- Jefferson, Rodgers, T.J. Watt at 30, DeAndre Hopkins at 27 -- were high-ceiling prospects who slipped, not safe picks taken to fill a need.
The draft isn't a straight line from best to worst. It's a map with hidden peaks and valleys -- and 25 years of data shows exactly where they are.
