Fantasy Football Offseason Analysis: Free-Agent QBs & RBs

The fantasy football offseason is essentially a months-long stock market. Player values rise and fall as coaching changes happen, depth charts shift and news breaks across the league. With NFL free agency just ahead, let's look at some key quarterbacks and running backs whose value could shift soon. Next week, we'll focus on wide receivers and tight ends.

Staying ahead of the market is critical in best ball fantasy football. Missing early value shifts can cost you league-winning upside. If you've missed any previous installments of this series, you can find them here.

Quarterback

Malik Willis

Willis struggled in his first two seasons after the Titans selected him in the third round of the 2022 NFL Draft. In two years with the Packers, he was called upon to make three starts. While Willis delivered strong fantasy production in those appearances, he averaged just 18 pass attempts per game, signaling that coach Matt LaFleur viewed him primarily as a game manager.

His fantasy value came from his rushing ability; he averaged 57 rushing yards and one touchdown per start. Rushing quarterbacks have long been a fantasy cheat code.

Wherever Willis lands in free agency, he has the potential to open the season as a Week 1 starter. However, unless his new coaching staff can fully develop him as a passer, there's no guarantee he holds the job for an entire season.

Aaron Rodgers

With Mike McCarthy taking over as head coach in Pittsburgh, there's a realistic chance Rodgers returns to the Steelers for his age-42 season. It's hard to envision another destination Rodgers would consider.

While Rodgers had outstanding years with McCarthy earlier in his career, expectations should be tempered at this stage. Last season, Rodgers threw for 3,322 yards, 24 touchdowns and completed 65.7 percent of his passes. However, the Steelers' offensive roster was built to fit Arthur Smith's tight end-heavy system, where Rodgers frequently relied on checkdowns to running backs and tight ends.

McCarthy likely will not maintain that style of offense. In that scenario, the biggest issue becomes the lack of receiver depth behind DK Metcalf. If Rodgers returns to Pittsburgh, expect a challenging seasons for fantasy purposes. 

Daniel Jones

Colts general manager Chris Ballard said the team expects to re-sign Jones, who suffered a torn Achilles in Week 14. In 13 games last season, Jones posted a career-high 68 percent completion rate and threw 19 touchdowns, his highest total since his rookie year in 2019.

After a strong start, Jones cooled off with a 6:5 touchdown-to-interception ratio in his final five games. Still, Indianapolis was successful with him under center.

The Achilles injury is concerning, but perhaps not as damaging as it might seem. If Jones can effectively operate in a play-action offense, he may not need to rely heavily on his mobility. In his final 10 games last season, he averaged just 11 rushing yards per game.

Coach Shane Steichen leaned on the team's strong group of pass catchers to simplify the offense for Jones. If he returns, Jones profiles as a superflex option with a low floor, especially if his recovery limits his mobility early in the season.

Running Back

Breece Hall

Jets general manager Darren Moughey indicated at the NFL Combine the team plans to place the franchise or transition tag on Hall. That likely ends any hope of Hall landing in a situation where he could become a true fantasy superstar.

As long as he remains in New York, it's difficult to see the Jets improving enough offensively for Hall to be more than an RB2. Still, he produced four games with at least 107 rushing yards last season and finished with 1,415 scrimmage yards and five touchdowns.

Hall is a talented player, but it's frustrating to see his prime years potentially limited by his team situation.

Kenneth Walker

Walker recorded a career-high 1,309 scrimmage yards last season but finished with a career-low five touchdowns. His 4.6 yards per carry matched his rookie season for his career high. Despite Seattle's inconsistent offensive line, coach Klint Kubiak's outside-zone run scheme helped Walker find success.

His strong playoff performance was aided by several factors: Zach Charbonnet being sidelined with a knee injury, Walker getting an unusually high number of outside runs and Seattle facing three defenses that struggled to defend the edge.

Unless Walker signs with a team that can consistently create outside running opportunities, he's likely to remain the same frustrating fantasy option he has been in recent years.

Travis Etienne

After two disappointing seasons, Etienne bounced back with 1,399 scrimmage yards and 13 total touchdowns, finishing as a top-6 fantasy running back. His 4.3 yards per carry wasn't elite, but his ability to generate production on outside runs and convert in the red zone was impressive.

However, after Week 4, Etienne failed to exceed 84 rushing yards in a game, despite often receiving 15 or more carries.

Replicating his touchdown total will be difficult, especially if Jacksonville moves on from him in free agency. Even if he returns, the Jaguars could shift toward a committee approach. Etienne also ranked in just the 45th percentile in broken tackle rate, suggesting regression could be coming.

If he lands in a situation with heavy usage, he can still be a strong RB2. However, I won't be chasing last season's production in drafts.

Rico Dowdle

Fantasy managers remember Dowdle's explosive two-week stretch when he totaled 473 scrimmage yards and two touchdowns in Weeks 5 and 6. After that performance, however, he had just one game with more than 80 rushing yards.

Over his final nine games, Dowdle averaged 3.2 yards per carry and 10 PPR points per game. In three of his last four contests, he failed to reach 30 rushing yards.

If he returns to Carolina, his late-season struggles could push him into a committee with Chuba Hubbard, who is entering the third year of a contract that pays him as a starter. If Dowdle signs elsewhere, his situation may not improve. The offensive lines he's played behind the last two seasons have been strong in run blocking. A move to a team with below-average blocking could significantly hurt his efficiency.

It's also worth noting that when Dowdle surpassed 1,000 yards with Dallas in 2024, he didn't receive heavy usage until the second half of the season. Last year, he started strong but faded. The trend suggests he may be better suited as a complementary back rather than a full-season workhorse. That's enough to make me cautious about drafting him in 2026, regardless of landing spot.

Conclusion

These are the quarterbacks and running backs whose fantasy football stock has recently shifted based on the upcoming free agency period. Staying on top of offseason movement is critical as early best ball drafts and 2026 rankings begin to take shape. For the latest depth chart updates and player movement, be sure to visit RotoWire's NFL depth charts.