This article is part of our College Hoops Barometer series.
On the eve of Selection Sunday, we'll take a look at the bubble teams vying for a spot in the NCAA Tournament. Who's in, who's on the fringe, and who's got some work left to do? Of course, all of this is subject to change as the conference tournaments begin in earnest. Beware the dreaded bid stealers. Conference tournament winners that otherwise would have not made the big dance on resume alone will shrink the bubble. As always, the article simply cannot include every team on the bubble, so the list is not meant to be all-encompassing.
We'll be using a variety of measurements, including conference record, overall record, and the good ol' eye test to hash out which teams are worthy, and which teams should be left out in the cold. As a refresher, the NCAA Evaluation Tool (NET) is used, which takes into account a variety of factors, including individual game results, strength of schedule, game location, scoring margin, net offensive and defensive efficiency, and the quality of wins and losses. In addition, wins (and losses) are now separated into Quadrants, depending on the caliber of opponent as well as the location of wins. To simplify, Quadrant 1 wins are the most valuable and come against the strongest competition. Duke currently has the most Quadrant 1 wins with 15. By contrast, Quadrant 4 losses are the worst result, coming against inferior squads. Most bubble teams have wins and losses in at least three quadrants, so it is important to not just look at Quadrant 1 wins, though those are certainly most likely to help a school's cause.
What matters more, big wins or bad losses? How important is how a team is playing at the time of Selection Sunday? Should a sub-.500 conference record automatically preclude your squad from inclusion in the NCAA Tournament? How about a .500-record overall? We'll tackle these queries and more in the annual Bubble Edition of the College Hoops Barometer. Oh, and currently undefeated Miami (Ohio) should make the NCAA Tournament regardless of whether or not the RedHawks win the MAC Tournament.
Getting ready for March Madness? For the latest in the projected field of 68 for 2025 NCAA Tournament, head to the RotoWire Bracketology page.
UPGRADE - Teams Seemingly Locked in to the Field of 68
Ohio State – The Buckeyes have just three Quad 1 wins and a 12-8 record in a Big Ten conference. However, Ohio State has won three-straight outings heading into the conference tourney, and the Buckeyes have wins against Wisconsin and Purdue over the last few weeks that have really bolstered their resume. In addition, the Big Ten may end up with a staggering 10 entries in the big dance, so an above-.500 record in this standout conference does mean something. Ohio State also has a head-to-head win versus fellow bubble team UCLA (more on the Bruins below). With a NET rating of 30, the Buckeyes should not have to sweat much on Selection Sunday regardless of the outcome of their conference tournament.
UCLA – With a NET Rating of 34 while playing in an extremely difficult conference, like the Buckeyes above, the Bruins have to be feeling good about their NCAA Tournament hopes. The Burins have played 12 Quad 1 contests, posting a 4-8 record overall. Winners of four of their last five contests heading into the Big Ten Tournament, the Buckeyes posted a dominant 72-52 win over Nebraska recently. They also beat Purdue earlier this season, and narrowly lost to Arizona and Gonzaga, showing the Bruins can hang with anyone on a given night. With a 5-2 Quad 2 record and zero losses in Quads 3 and 4, at 21-10 overall the Bruins should be safe and amongst the final teams included in the bracket.
TCU – The Horned Frogs have more Quad 1 wins than any other team in this article (6), which should be the calling card of their resume and the likely reason they are ultimately dancing later this month. TCU boasts an impressive early-season win over Florida, and late-season triumphs against Iowa State and Texas Tech. After a rough patch during the middle of the season, the Horned Frogs have righted the ship, riding a five-game winning streak into the Big Ten Tournament. Along with the highs, though, the lows on TCU's resume also must be noted. TCU lost the season opener to New Orleans, a close clash with a dismal Notre Dame squad later on, and a shocking loss at Utah in the middle of January. The Utes are 2-16 in the Big 12. Still, despite the peaks and valleys, TCU is 21-10 overall, 11-7 in the Big 12, possesses a NET Rating of 41 and has posted enough stellar victories to overcome their baffling faults.
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CHECK STATUS - Teams On the Verge of Making March Madness
VCU – The Rams boast a stellar 24-7 record overall, including a superb 15-3 conference record. That places the Rams in a tie with Saint Louis atop the Atlantic 10, and the Rams certainly appear more than capable of winning their conference tournament and putting all this bubble talk to bed. Assuming the Rams fall short, they still have a solid case for including in March Madness. They have a NET Rating of 44, and a perfect 20-0 record in Quads 3 and 4 combined. The Rams went just 1-5 in Quad 1 and 3-2 in Quad 2, showing the sheer lack of experience against tougher competition. VCU's sole Quad 1 win was against a mediocre Virginia Tech squad in the ACC, though they dominated the Hokies, yet another bubble squad who finished the regular season 19-13, by a score of 86-68. They do have a loss to another bubble team, though, in the form of New Mexico (more on the Lobos later). VCU looks to be on the right side of the bubble as of right now, but the lack of success (or even contests played) against better competition could make the committee think twice come Selection Sunday.
UCF – Barring a deep run in the Big 12 Tournament, the Knights sit firmly on the bubble and likely farther away than fellow conference mate TCU discussed above. UCF has a NET Rating of 51, but was only 9-9 in Big 12 play. The Knights do not have any bad losses, though, performed well in Quad 2 (6-3 record), and also won four contests in Quad 1. That includes wins against Kansas and Texas Tech. Unfortunately, a late-season slide has Central Florida on the ropes, as they dropped three games in a row against subpar competition. An early exit from the Big 12 Tournament could spell doom for the Knights; in fact, they defeated another bubble team Cincinnati in their first game Wednesday.
SMU – The Mustangs avoided a loss to Syracuse in their first game of the ACC Tournament, but lost to Louisville the next day. The key for the Mustangs may be the health of start point guard B.J. Edwards, who has missed the last four contests due to an ankle injury. With SMU firmly on the fence, the health of Edwards will certainly be discussed as to whether the Mustangs still deserve a tourney berth without one of their best players. The metrics for SMU on paper are likely solid enough (NET Rating of 37, four Quad 1 wins, zero bad losses), but missing Edwards does change the complexion of its squad.
Indiana – The honest conversation about the Hoosiers right now is that they are playing arguably their worst basketball of the season over the last few weeks. Indiana is 1-6 in its last seven outings, with the sole win coming against a Minnesota squad that has been ravaged by injuries this season. This recent slide has put Indiana under .500 in the Big Ten with a regular season record of 9-11. Granted, this is a sensational conference, which gives Indiana a NET Rating of 38, but at the end of the day, simply playing in a difficult conference is not enough by itself to get a squad over the hump. Indiana beat fellow bubble team UCLA earlier this season, but overall went just 3-11 in Quad 1 clashes. The Hoosiers do not have any bad losses, but today's defeat at the hands of Northwestern in the Big Ten conference tourney opener likely sinks their chances at an at-large berth.
DOWNGRADE - Teams Likely to Miss the Big Dance
Auburn – The NET rating for Auburn is still 39, and the Tigers do have four Quad 1 wins on their resume, but that is pretty much where the good news ends. The Tigers are not just under .500 in the SEC; they are four games under .500. Sitting at 16-15 overall, that should be where the discussion begins and ends, right? Well, Auburn did play an extremely challenging non-conference slate against the likes of Houston, Arizona, Purdue and St. John's. The best win on their resume is that 85-74 triumph over the Johnnies earlier this season, but the Tigers also somehow toppled Florida and Arkansas, two stalwarts of the SEC this season. That seems like a distant memory, though, as Auburn has a suspect record of just 2-8 in their last 10 outings going into the postseason. The damage is likely too much to overcome at this point, barring a Cinderella run in the SEC Tournament.
New Mexico / 
San Diego State – Utah State leads the Mountain West and could be the only school from the conference to gain entry into March Madness. The Aztecs and the Lobos are second and third in the conference, respectively, but both likely find themselves on the outside looking in as of right now. Both have NET Ratings under 50, along with two Quad 1 wins apiece. New Mexico has a slightly better record than San Diego State overall. The Lobos have two Quad 3 losses, while the Aztecs only have one. The teams split the season series one game apiece. As referenced above, New Mexico beat similar bubble team UCLA earlier this season. San Diego State is lacking much of a signature win overall. Neither program should be terribly comfortable without stealing the automatic bid from the Aggies.
California / 
Stanford – Both of these ACC schools that currently side on the west coast also likely need some help to make the NCAA Tournament. Stanford's bubble may have already burst with an opening loss to Pitt in the ACC Tournament, despite recent triumphs over NC State and fellow bubble squad SMU. Stanford also lost to Cal twice, but both have 9-9 records in the conference, and both schools hit the 20-win mark overall. The NET Rating for both schools speaks volumes, currently sitting above 60. Stanford has a staggering four Quad 3 losses. Cal's resume looks a bit better than Stanford's at this point, as the Bears have victories over Miami, North Carolina and SMU. However, recent losses to Wake Forest and Pitt have also dimmed their forecast. With so many bubble schools remaining on the fringe, and so much basketball left to play, the odds are likely against either of these squads making the final cut.
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