This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
Many more teams join the fray on Wednesday, as conference tournament action heats up. Here are my predictions for a pair of games from the Big 12 tournament, as well as a tightclose matchup from the Big East.
Top College Basketball Best Bets for Today
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Cincinnati 
vs. UCF
The weakest part of this matchup is UCF's defense, which ranks 118th in adjusted efficiency. During conference play, it ranked among the bottom five Big 12 teams in efficiency, effective field goal percentage allowed, turnovers, and free-throw attempt rate allowed. The most concerning aspect, however, is its inability to guard inside the paint. The Knights allowed Big 12 opponents to make 57 percent of shots inside the arc, the second-worst mark in the league.
Cincinnati's offense, meanwhile, started slowly but has stepped it up over the past month. As mentioned in yesterday's article, since February 8th, Cincinnati has posted five of its six most efficient offensive performances of the season, including a statement-making 84-68 win at Kansas. The start of this period coincided with the second game between these two teams, which the Bearcats dominated, winning 92-72, their highest point total of the conference season.
Both teams typically perform better when playing on the other end of the court, though Cincinnati still maintains a decisive edge. The Bearcats' defense ranks 12th nationally in adjusted efficiency, including the fourth-best rating in the Big 12 during league play. The Knights, on the other hand, posted the eighth-highest offensive rating during the Big 12 conference season, not bad, but still clearly below Cincinnati's defense.
All things considered, I'm betting the Bearcats' defense sets the tone while its improved offensive attack drives past the Knights. I'm laying the points with Cincinnati.
College Basketball Best Bet: Cincinnati -2.5
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Providence 
vs. Butler 
On paper, Providence's offense has the biggest advantage in this matchup. The Friars finished the conference season with the second-best efficiency rating in the Big East, and it's easy to see why. They were strong in several key areas, also ranking second in the league in two-point field goal percentage (54 percent) and effective field goal percentage. They also placed among the top four Big East teams in three-point field goal percentage (36 percent), free throw attempt rate, free throw make percentage, and offensive rebounding, further rounding out an all-around solid offense.
In contrast, Butler's defense posted poor numbers during the conference season, ranking second-worst in efficiency and effective field goal percentage allowed. They were also among the four worst Big East teams in forcing turnovers and defensive rebounding percentage. The biggest red flag is its soft interior defense. The Bulldogs allowed Big East opponents to make 57 percent of two-point attempts, the worst in the conference.
This mismatch has led exactly to the results we might expect when these two teams clashed earlier in the season. Providence made 27-of-49 (.551) two-point attempts in the first game and made 22-of-38 (.579) in the second game.
Interestingly, both regular-season games went into double overtime: Butler won the first, and Providence won the most recent.
The Friars' defense is certainly a liability, although they're at least somewhat formidable in the paint, holding opponents to 50 percent on two-pointers (112th). This is noteworthy because Butler scores a majority of its points inside the arc (51 percent, 130th), while three-pointers account for only 26 percent (306th).
Given how these teams match up, my money's on the team with the better offense. I'm following the Friars.
College Basketball Best Bet: Providence -1.5
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BYU 
vs. West Virginia
Here we have a textbook case of strength vs. strength.
Both BYU's offense and West Virginia's defense rank among the top 20 nationally in adjusted efficiency, and neither has any major weaknesses in the usual key categories. One interesting note, the Cougars do most of their scoring inside the arc, with two-pointers accounting for over 50 percent of total points (146th), although it might need to connect from long range in order to win on Wednesday because the Mountaineers are elite defensively in the paint, holding opponents to under 46 percent, the 10th-best mark nationally.
It's only natural, then, that the key to predicting the outcome of this game may lie at the other end of the court, where both teams are much weaker. West Virginia's offense was well below the Big 12 average in most areas during conference play, though it was particularly strong in the paint, making 53 percent of two-point attempts against conference opponents, the fifth-best mark in the league. BYU's defense, on the other hand, struggled in most areas and hasn't been great at interior defense, allowing Big 12 opponents to make 53 percent of their two-pointers. During league play, the Cougars' defense ranked among the bottom four in the Big 12 in efficiency, effective field goal percentage allowed, and turnover percentage.
The Cougars have shown they're talented enough to overcome their defensive shortcomings on many occasions, but the defense remains a problem, as we saw on Tuesday when Kansas State scored 91 points against them. Now, BYU must face a West Virginia team that plays legitimate defense, which won the first matchup between these two teams by a score of 79-71.
BYU will likely win, but I'm betting West Virginia keeps it close. I'm taking the points in this spot.
College Basketball Best Bet: West Virginia +5
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Wednesday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Wednesday:
- Cincinnati -2.5
- Providence -1.5
- West Virginia +5
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sources, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
