This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
Tuesday brings us another weeknight full of big-time hoops action. We've got plenty of heavyweights to consider on tonight's slate, but I've got my sights set on some teams outside our usual list of suspects. Here are my predictions for a trio of games featuring ACC and Mountain West squads.
Top College Basketball Best Bets for Today
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Wake Forest 
at Pittsburgh 
On paper, Pittsburgh has the most significant advantage in this matchup.
The Panthers aren't the most efficient offensive team, but they are excellent at collecting offensive boards, a skill that will likely make all the difference on Tuesday. Pittsburgh ranks 65th in offensive rebounding percentage and has the fourth-highest mark in the ACC during conference play, a critically important strength because Wake Forest has been atrocious in the paint, including on the glass. Wake Forest ranks 309th in defensive rebounding percentage and ranks the worst among ACC teams during league play.
Additionally, the Demon Deacons consistently give up easy baskets, allowing opponents to make 56 percent of two-point attempts (316th), a mark that's only worsened against league competition. Wake Forest is allowing ACC teams to make over 59 percent of shots inside the arc, again the worst in the conference. Combining this fact with its lack of defensive rebounding, it's safe to say that Pittsburgh will likely make plenty of put-back opportunities on Tuesday.
At the other end of the court, the Panthers don't have great defensive numbers for the season, but they're doing a few things well that should help their cause on Tuesday. During the ACC conference season, Pittsburgh's defense ranks in the top eight in turnovers, rebounding, and free-throw attempt rate allowed. Wake Forest, meanwhile, hasn't scored nearly as well as it did during the non-conference portion of the schedule. The Demon Deacons rank 13th in the ACC in offensive efficiency and rank among the bottom three in offensive rebounding and free-throw attempts.
All things considered, Wake Forest has not played very well in recent weeks, and Pittsburgh appears highly capable of taking advantage. I'm taking the home team.
College Basketball Best Bet: Pittsburgh -1.5
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Virginia 
at Notre Dame 
The Cavaliers have been incredibly proficient on offense, largely because of their exceptional ability on the offensive glass. Virginia boasts the third-highest offensive rebounding percentage nationally, although it likely won't tally its usual total on Tuesday.
The Fighting Irish have often leaned on their defense to win games, and their best strength is their ability to clean up on the glass, ranking 10th nationally in defensive rebounding percentage. This is a valuable trait in any matchup, and even more so in this one, as KenPom data suggests that the Cavaliers' offensive success is significantly correlated to an increase in offensive rebounds, more than turnovers or free throws.
Notre Dame hasn't had nearly as much success at the other end of the court. It ranks 109th in adjusted offensive efficiency and has the fourth-lowest rating in the ACC during league play. The Fighting Irish have poor shooting numbers across the board since the conference season began, ranking third-worst in the ACC in effective field goal percentage, three-point field goal percentage, and free-throw make percentage. They're only making 47 percent of two-point attempts against conference opponents, and it won't get any easier on Tuesday, as Virginia has performed among the league's best defensively. During league play, the Cavaliers rank third in defensive efficiency and boast the best effective field goal percentage allowed. Virginia is holding conference opponents to 44 percent on two-point attempts and 28 percent on three-point attempts, making them tough to score on from anywhere on the court.
It's hard to trust Notre Dame's offense, but, at the same time, I'd rather not bet against its defense, as we saw when it won at Stanford by a final score of 47-40. Given each team's strengths, I'm taking the under.
College Basketball Best Bet: Under 141.5
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Grand Canyon 
at Nevada 
The biggest liability in this game is Grand Canyon's offensive attack, or rather, its lack of one.
The Antelopes rank 157th in adjusted offensive efficiency and don't have great offensive numbers despite playing an incredibly easy non-conference schedule, ranked 308th in difficulty per KenPom. Aside from its underwhelming offensive rating, Grand Canyon ranks outside the top 230 teams in effective field goal percentage and turnover percentage. Its biggest limitation is its inability to consistently score from the perimeter. The Antelopes have made 30 percent of their three-point attempts (325th), and this area has not improved in recent weeks, as they've made 31 percent against MWC opponents.
Grand Canyon's one-dimensional offense has still gotten the job done plenty of times, but Tuesday will be more challenging, as Nevada usually plays a stout defense inside the paint. The Wolfpack is holding opponents to under 50 percent on two-point attempts (113th) and has maintained this strength against league competition, holding MWC opponents to 49 percent, the fourth-highest mark in the conference.
In contrast, the greatest asset in this game belongs to Nevada and its ability to score points. The Wolfpack ranks 60th in adjusted efficiency and boasts the second-best mark among MWC teams since the conference season began. The key to its success has been elite shooting, minimizing mistakes, and getting to the foul line. Nevada ranks in the top 25 nationally in turnover percentage, free-throw attempt rate, and three-point field goal percentage, shooting 39 percent from beyond the arc. During the conference season, Nevada also has the third-highest offensive rebounding percentage.
Grand Canyon's defense is usually a solid unit, although it's had trouble with fouling opponents, ranking 238th in free-throw attempt rate allowed. This issue has persisted in recent weeks, as the Antelopes rank second-worst in the Mountain West during league play. This problem doesn't bode well against Nevada, as the Wolfpack has made 77 percent of foul shots, including 80 percent during the conference season.
The bottom line is, I don't believe Grand Canyon will keep up with Nevada. Perhaps its defense proves me wrong, but I'm betting Nevada pulls away in the second half. I'm backing the Wolfpack in this one.
College Basketball Best Bet: Nevada -3.5
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Tuesday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Tuesday:
- Pittsburgh -1.5
- Virginia at Notre Dame - Under 141.5
- Nevada -3.5
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sources, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
