This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
Saturday once again brings us another day full of pivotal matchups as we enter the heart of conference season. Here are my predictions for an ACC battle and a pair of SEC matchups that tip off in the afternoon.
Top College Basketball Best Bets for Today
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Miami 
at Syracuse
The most significant advantage in this matchup belongs to the Hurricanes. On the surface, the Orange defense appears to have a slight edge over the visitors in adjusted efficiency, though Syracuse has one gigantic red flag and Miami is poised to take advantage. Specifically, the Orange have struggled to box out, ranking 262nd in defensive rebounding percentage. The Canes, meanwhile, are among the best on the glass, ranking 18th in offensive rebounding percentage.
At the same time, Miami is equally as skilled at scoring inside the paint, making 59 percent of two-point attempts, the nation's 16th-highest mark. Syracuse seems well-equipped to defend this area as it is holding opponents to 45 percent on two-point attempts, but the picture drastically changes when we focus on its performances against league competition. Syracuse has allowed ACC foes to make almost 52 percent of shots inside the arc, notably higher than its data against non-conference opponents, which account for one of the easiest non-con schedules nationally, 279th in difficulty, per KenPom. In contrast, Miami has not seen the same drop-off, making 58 percent of two-pointers against league opponents.
At the other end of the court, Miami again has a key advantage. Syracuse has not played consistently well on offense (98th in adjusted efficiency), and a big part of that is ball handling, or a lack thereof. Since the conference season started, the Orange have the worst offensive turnover percentage in the ACC, including the second-worst non-steal turnover percentage, suggesting a high number of unforced errors. Miami, on the other hand, has played relatively well on defense (32nd in adjusted efficiency), and one of its strengths has been causing turnovers. The Canes rank 40th in defensive turnover percentage and fifth among ACC teams during conference play, giving us a consistently feisty defense.
Considering Miami's stronger offensive attack and important matchup advantages, I'm laying the points with the Hurricanes.
College Basketball Best Bet: Miami -1.5
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Auburn 
at Florida
Auburn is proving to have an outstanding offensive attack, though Florida presents a couple of massive challenges that don't bode well for Saturday's matchup.
First, the Tigers are elite at offensive rebounding, but the Gators are poised to neutralize this strength. The Tigers boast an offensive rebounding percentage that ranks ninth nationally, which is impressive, though the Gators rank third in defensive rebounding percentage among all D-1 teams. This elite defensive skill has solidified during the conference season, as Florida also boasts the highest defensive rebounding rate against SEC opponents. This is the last thing Auburn wants to hear, as KenPom data suggests that an increase in offensive rebounds significantly contributes to the Tigers' offensive success. For context, turnovers and free throws hardly correlate to Auburn's offensive production.
The other major hurdle facing Auburn on Saturday is its lack of perimeter scoring. The Tigers are making under 33 percent of their three-point attempts this season (235th), and they've been ice-cold against league opponents. During the conference season, Auburn has made just 26 percent of shots from beyond the arc, the second-worst mark in the SEC. The inability to score outside the paint may be a fatal flaw against Florida because the Gators are elite at defending the rim. They have held opponents to under 46 percent on two-point attempts (17th) and have maintained the same elite play against league competition, holding SEC opponents to under 48 percent.
When analyzing the other end of the court, we see a similar pattern: Florida's elite frontcourt has a massive advantage over Auburn's defense. Namely, Florida's offense outranks Auburn's defense in the following: adjusted efficiency (11th vs. 78th), rebounding (second vs. 165th), and two-point field goal percentage (27th vs. 193rd), among several other categories.
Auburn is highly capable thanks to its offense, but, on paper, this has all the makings of a nightmare matchup for the Tigers. I'm going with the Gators in this spot.
College Basketball Best Bet: Florida -11.5
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LSU at Arkansas 
Arkansas remains undefeated at home this season, where its explosive offensive attack often puts on a show. It has won all three SEC home games by double-digit margins, and earlier in the year, it defeated Louisville by nine and Texas Tech by seven. Few teams can stop the Razorbacks when they're firing on all cylinders, which is usually the case when they play at the Bud Walton Arena in Fayetteville.
It's hard to find many, if any, flaws with Arkansas' offense. The Razorbacks have the fifth-highest adjusted efficiency rating (and second-highest during conference play), and they rank in the top 30 nationally in effective field goal percentage, turnovers, and three-point field goal percentage.
At first glance, LSU has respectable offensive numbers, but a closer look reveals warning indicators across the board. The Tigers played one of the easiest non-conference schedules, ranking 291st in difficulty per KenPom, so it's no surprise to see the conference season bring them crashing back to reality.
The Tigers have lost five of six SEC games so far, largely because they have been unable to score. During the SEC conference season, LSU's offense ranks last in efficiency, second-to-last in turnover percentage and two-point field goal percentage, and it ranks 11th in effective field goal percentage and rebounding. At the same time, Arkansas has played defense at a high level against SEC opponents, ranking in the top three in the league in efficiency, turnovers, rebounding, and free-throw attempt rate allowed.
Essentially, Saturday's matchup pits one of the SEC's best offensive teams against one of its worst. For that reason, I'm taking the home team in this one.
College Basketball Best Bet: Arkansas -10
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Saturday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Saturday:
- Miami -1.5
- Florida -11.5
- Arkansas -10
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sources, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
