This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
The final wave of teams joins the conference tournament action as the Quarterfinal and Semifinal rounds tip off in the high-major conferences. Here are my predictions for a trio of games featuring teams from the SEC, ACC, and Big Ten.
Top College Basketball Best Bets for Today
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Mississippi 
vs. Alabama 
The spread is a decent size, but it's hard to ignore one particular, massive matchup advantage.
First, while Mississippi's defense isn't awful by SEC standards (ninth in efficiency during league play), it is the worst at sending opponents to the foul line. The Rebels had the worst free-throw attempt rate in the conference, which is exactly what the Crimson Tide likes to see on its scouting report. Alabama's offense had the seventh-highest free-throw attempt rate in the SEC and converted 77 percent of its foul shots.
When these teams played during the regular season, Alabama made 24-of-26 free throw attempts en route to a 93-74 victory at Oxford.
It's hard enough to slow down Alabama's offense, which boasts the third-highest adjusted efficiency rating among all D-1 teams, and having a fouling problem is the last thing an opponent needs.
Offensively, the Rebels struggled to score for much of the conference season. Their offense ranked among the bottom three in the SEC in efficiency, rebounding, free-throw attempts, two-point and three-point shooting, and effective field goal percentage.
As fate would have it, these struggles didn't stop them from making 9-of-20 three-point attempts against Georgia on Thursday in the SEC tournament. It was just the Rebels' second conference game with at least 45 percent of three-pointers made. Considering their overall shooting problems, I believe they're likely to cool off on Friday.
Perhaps Ole Miss will keep a hot hand, but I'm betting they won't keep up with Alabama's dynamic offense.
I'm laying the points with the Tide.
College Basketball Best Bet: Alabama -10.5
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Miami 
vs. Virginia
I picked Miami in its win over Louisville on Thursday, largely because the Hurricanes are outstanding in several fundamental and sustainable areas.
Specifically, during the ACC conference season, Miami's offense ranked among the top four in efficiency, offensive rebounding, free-throw attempts, two-point field goal percentage (56 percent), and effective field goal percentage. Virginia's defense is arguably elite, but Miami has the tools to crack it.
Similarly, at the other end of the court, Miami's defense ranked among the top five ACC teams in efficiency, turnovers, rebounding (the best), and free-throw attempt rate allowed. In contrast, Virginia's offense ranked seventh in efficiency, 10th in effective field goal percentage, 15th in turnover percentage, and 17th in free-throw attempt rate.
Miami lost the regular-season game at Virginia, 86-83, but much like its loss to Louisville in the regular-season finale, the Hurricanes led for large portions of the game and were up with two minutes remaining.
A win is a win, but it's worth noting that Virginia knocked down 12-of-24 three-point attempts in the game, its best shooting performance and best offensive rating of the conference season. I'm not confident the Cavaliers can repeat the same offensive performance the second time around.
For these reasons, I'm betting that the Miami revenge tour continues on Friday. I'm taking the points.
College Basketball Best Bet: Miami +3.5
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UCLA 
vs. Michigan State
Looking at this matchup, it's easy to see why the previous game unfolded the way it did.
Michigan State is tough in the paint, and UCLA's numbers don't compare.
Specifically, the Spartans' offense ranks sixth nationally in offensive rebounding percentage, while the Bruins' defense ranks 238th in rebounding. Similarly, Michigan State is making 54 percent of two-pointers (94th), while UCLA is allowing opponents to make 53 percent (232nd). On a related note, the Spartans often draw contact near the rim, ranking third in free-throw attempt rate during the Big Ten conference season, with UCLA's defense ranking 13th. Michigan State made 80 percent of its foul shots against league opponents, so this will likely come into play if old habits persist.
The Spartans are even better when playing in the other direction. Michigan State's defense boasts the eighth-best adjusted efficiency rating nationally, and during league play, it ranked among the top three Big Ten teams in efficiency, rebounding (the best), two-point field goal percentage allowed (49 percent), and effective field goal percentage allowed.
When these teams clashed at the Breslin Center in mid-February, Michigan State made 15-of-28 (.536) from inside the arc while holding UCLA to 13-of-32 (.406) on shots inside the arc, en route to an 82-59 victory.
Friday's game will likely be closer, but I still like the Spartans' odds of pulling away and covering. I'm laying the points.
College Basketball Best Bet: Michigan State -5.5
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Friday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Friday:
- Alabama -10.5
- Miami +3.5
- Michigan State -5.5
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sources, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
