This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
Friday brings us one of the biggest games of the season. Here are my predictions for an epic Big Ten showdown and a pair of games featuring mid-major conference teams.
Top College Basketball Best Bets for Today
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Michigan 
at Michigan State 
As if this rivalry needed any additional intensity, this game features the two best defensive teams in the nation, per KenPom's adjusted efficiency ratings.
Michigan State's defense boasts the best adjusted rating in the land, and this has held up through the conference season, where it's the best in the league. The Spartans also lead the Big Ten in effective field goal percentage allowed and defensive rebounding percentage, seemingly as good as any team could perform defensively. The Wolverines generally have a highly proficient offense, ranking 11th in adjusted efficiency. However, they aren't the best from the perimeter, making under 33 percent against Big Ten opponents, and they tend to turn the ball over, ranking 13th in offensive turnover percentage during conference play.
Michigan's defense, meanwhile, has nearly an identical adjusted rating to State, ranking second nationally. It's also holding opponents to under 42 percent on two-point field goal attempts, the second-best among all D-1 teams. The Spartans' offensive attack almost always gets the job done, but they're not nearly as elite on that side of the court. State ranks 242nd in offensive turnover percentage for the full season and similarly ranks dead last in the Big Ten during conference play. The Wolverines have the third-highest defensive turnover percentage during the Big Ten conference season, so it's highly likely State will turn the ball over on numerous occasions on Friday.
Given a pair of elite defenses and an intense sibling-like rivalry, I'm betting we'll have a low-scoring game on Friday. I'm on the under.
College Basketball Best Bet: Under 146.5
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Wright State 
at Milwaukee
Wright State's offense appears to have a massive advantage in this matchup.
The Raiders rank 119th in adjusted efficiency and boast the best rating in the Horizon League during conference play. In contrast, the Panthers have struggled to get stops throughout the season, ranking 278th in efficiency. Milwaukee has allowed opponents to make 55 percent of two-point attempts (297th) and over 36 percent of three-point attempts (310th), and it doesn't often take the ball away, 250th in turnovers. Overall, between the 'Four Factor' categories and 'Miscellaneous Components' featured on KenPom's matchup breakdown, there's not a single category that Wright State's offense doesn't outrank Milwaukee's defense.
At the other side of the court, we have a much more even battle, although Wright State's defense still takes the edge over Milwaukee's offense from an efficiency point of view (195th vs. 207th). The differences become starker when we focus on data from the conference season. During league play, Wright State has the second-best effective field goal percentage allowed and is above the league average in turnovers and rebounds. Milwaukee, on the other hand, has the third-worst effective field goal percentage allowed and has made just 33 percent of three-point attempts.
Up to this point, Wright State has firmly established itself as the better overall team. With a short spread, I gotta go with the Raiders.
College Basketball Best Bet: Wright State -2.5
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Boise State 
at Grand Canyon 
Grand Canyon has been exceptional on defense this year, although it has one critical flaw. It frequently sends opponents to the charity stripe, ranking 243rd in free-throw attempt rate allowed for the season. The problem has only worsened against league competition. The rate is higher, and they rank last in the Mountain West.
This isn't necessarily a fatal flaw, but it doesn't bode well for Friday. Boise State ranks 35th in free-throw attempt rate and boasts the highest rate during the Mountain West Conference season, which is the last thing a defense like GCU wants to see. Especially because the Broncos have knocked down 76 percent of their foul shots (51st).
Aside from foul shots, Boise State has also been consistent in the paint in recent weeks, making almost 56 percent of two-point attempts against Mountain West opponents, the second-best mark in the league.
The Broncos lost the first time these teams clashed, back on January 7, although it's worth noting they had one of their worst shooting performances of the season. They made just 4-of-19 three-point attempts, their third-lowest percentage made in any game this season.
Considering how Boise State's offense matches up against Grand Canyon's defense, I'm taking the Broncos.
College Basketball Best Bet: Boise State +1.5
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Friday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Friday:
- Michigan at Michigan State - Under 146.5
- Wright State -2.5
- Boise State +1.5
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sources, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
