We've spent the month of January taking a look at regression and rebound candidates among position players as well as regression candidates among pitchers. It's time to round out the series with a couple more rebound candidates on the mound.
Aaron Nola, SP, Philadelphia Phillies
We've grown accustomed over the years to expecting ERA fluctuations from Nola, but his 6.01 mark in 2025 took things to the extreme. He also mixed in significant missed time due to injury for the first time in several years.
Nola sprained his ankle prior to a May 9 start against the Guardians, and he tried unsuccessfully to pitch through it for two outings, coughing up 13 runs over 8.2 frames. He was then placed on the injured list after that and wound up missing more than three months, though a stress reaction in his right rib cage suffered while rehabbing was the main culprit for his extended absence.
You don't have to squint too hard to see that Nola dealt with some bad luck again. His LOB% of 62.4 percent was absurdly low, and his .315 BABIP was also elevated after it came in at .286 across the previous seven seasons. Nola had a 24 percent strikeout rate and 6.9 percent walk rate, and while his 17.1 percent K-BB% was down for him, it still ranked 38th out of 143 pitchers with at least 90 innings, just behind Tyler Glasnow and just ahead of Carlos Rodon. All of Nola's ERA indicators were
We've spent the month of January taking a look at regression and rebound candidates among position players as well as regression candidates among pitchers. It's time to round out the series with a couple more rebound candidates on the mound.
Aaron Nola, SP, Philadelphia Phillies
We've grown accustomed over the years to expecting ERA fluctuations from Nola, but his 6.01 mark in 2025 took things to the extreme. He also mixed in significant missed time due to injury for the first time in several years.
Nola sprained his ankle prior to a May 9 start against the Guardians, and he tried unsuccessfully to pitch through it for two outings, coughing up 13 runs over 8.2 frames. He was then placed on the injured list after that and wound up missing more than three months, though a stress reaction in his right rib cage suffered while rehabbing was the main culprit for his extended absence.
You don't have to squint too hard to see that Nola dealt with some bad luck again. His LOB% of 62.4 percent was absurdly low, and his .315 BABIP was also elevated after it came in at .286 across the previous seven seasons. Nola had a 24 percent strikeout rate and 6.9 percent walk rate, and while his 17.1 percent K-BB% was down for him, it still ranked 38th out of 143 pitchers with at least 90 innings, just behind Tyler Glasnow and just ahead of Carlos Rodon. All of Nola's ERA indicators were much better than his 6.01 ERA, though some of them (3.81 SIERA, 3.71 xFIP) were a lot more promising than others (4.20 xERA, 4.58 FIP).
Nola averaged just 91.9 mph with his four-seamer, which was his lowest since 2016. However, he averaged 92.2 mph with the heater down the stretch after coming back from injury and a season-high 92.7 mph in his final start of the regular season, numbers that were basically in line with the 92.5 mph he averaged during a quality 2024 campaign. Nola went eight innings of one-run ball with nine strikeouts and zero walks versus the Twins in that last regular-season start, and he also tossed two scoreless frames with a 3:0 K:BB in his lone abbreviated postseason start.
Nola will turn 33 in June, has tons of mileage on his right arm and is coming off an injury-shortened season during which he posted a 6.01 ERA. Additionally, as previously mentioned, he hasn't been a safe bet from an ERA perspective even during his prime, as pitchers like Nola that pound the strike zone and give up their fair share of homers tend to underperform their peripherals more than others. Because of all this, it certainly wouldn't surprise me if what we saw in 2025 was a harbinger of doom. That said, Nola has not dealt with any arm-related injuries since 2016, and he showed enough last season that it looks more like a blip to me than the beginning of the end. I'll have some shares at his current ADP, which is outside the top-200 over the last month in NFBC leagues.
Bryce Miller, SP, Seattle Mariners
The above image taken from Baseball Savant doesn't tell the whole story with Miller, but I don't recall ever seeing such a drastic year-over-year drop with a player's run values. Considering he pitched most of the 2025 season at 26 years of age, it's not something that can be explained away by father time getting the best of him. I do think there's a pretty clear explanation, though, and it's that Miller was never healthy.
In his first eight starts of the season, Miller held a 5.22 ERA, 1.54 WHIP, 20.1 percent strikeout rate and 12.1 percent walk rate. It was at that point that he went on the injured list with what the Mariners referred to as right elbow inflammation. Miller skipped a rehab assignment and returned in less than three weeks, but he went back on the IL after two more awful starts. Seattle again listed the injury as elbow inflammation, but Miller revealed at that point that he was also dealing with a bone spur in the elbow, and he was given a PRP injection.
Miller was shelved more than 10 weeks during his second stint on the IL, and he posted a 5.62 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and 35:11 K:BB over 41.2 frames covering his final eight regular-season outings. His velocity was noticeably up during that stretch,with his four-seamer 95.3 mph, which was right in line with the 95.2 mph he averaged in 2024. He had averaged 94.5 mph in his first 10 outings of the season. Miller then topped 96 mph on average in all three of his postseason starts and collected a 2.51 ERA, though it came with a 9:5 K:BB in 14.1 innings. The righty later told Adam Jude of the Seattle Times that those final 11 outings were "the best I felt all year."
Whether consciously or unconsciously, pitchers will often change their mechanics when they're hurt. Sure enough, as you can see above, Miller's vertical and horizontal release points were drastically different in 2025 than they were in 2024. It changed the action on his pitches, as the spin rate on all seven of his offerings was up. His control (5.7 percent walk rate from 2023-2024, 8.7 percent walk rate in 2025) and command (104 Location+ from 2023-2024, 97 Location+ in 2025) both deteriorated. His strikeout rate bottomed out to 18.9 percent after it came in at 23.4 percent the previous two seasons.
Earlier this month, Miller posted video on his Twitter account of him throwing at Dynamic Sports Training. The velocity readings crept up later in the video, topping out at 98.3 mph on his final pitch. Miller also noted that he's gained 12 pounds over the offseason.
The offseason throwing video, coupled with Miller's velo increase late in the regular season and playoffs, are encouraging. The pitcher noted in the previously mentioned article from the Seattle Times that he might get a gel cortisone injection early in the offseason and perhaps another one before spring training. It's unclear whether Miller wound up receiving that first injection, nor is it known whether he will get one at the start of camp. Either way, it seems he's in a good spot physically a few weeks before pitchers and catchers report.
Pitchers have pitched effectively with bone spurs before, and odds are there are others pitching with them without even knowing it. And yet, I just can't get on board with drafting Miller right now, even with a reasonable 255.6 ADP over the past month in NFBC drafts. Investing in a pitcher coming off a down season who has a known elbow problem just isn't wise, particularly when that pitcher already had a substandard strikeout rate at his peak.
