The 2026 World Baseball Classic features over 250 MLB players across 19 countries, including Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani, Juan Soto, and Paul Skenes. Every March that the WBC rolls around, the same question resurfaces: will these players be sharper or more fatigued when the regular season starts?
We analyzed 252 qualifying player-seasons across all five World Baseball Classic tournaments (2006, 2009, 2013, 2017, 2023) to find out. The answer depends entirely on whether you are asking about hitters or pitchers.
WBC Hitters Perform Better After the Tournament
The data is clear. Across 160 qualifying hitter-seasons, 64.6% posted a higher OPS in the WBC year compared to the prior season. The average OPS increase was +.018 while league-wide OPS remained flat over the same periods. The effect was strongest in April, where WBC participants outperformed their own full-season averages by an additional +.012 OPS in the first month of the regular season.
That early-season boost suggests the competitive March at-bats function as an accelerator that gets hitters locked in faster than traditional spring training. The trend has strengthened with each tournament. In 2006, 58% of WBC hitters improved. By 2023, that number climbed to 69%.
The 2023 WBC produced the most compelling evidence. Trea Turner slashed .391 with five home runs during the Classic and carried that into a 4.9 WAR season for the Phillies, well above his 3.6 career average. His April OPS of .831 was his best opening month since 2021. J.T. Realmuto posted a career-best 5.2 WAR at age 32 and credited the WBC with getting him locked in early. Mookie Betts rode his WBC leadoff role into a 6.9 WAR campaign with 39 home runs for the Dodgers.
Facing elite pitching in high-leverage situations during March appears to sharpen timing and plate discipline in a way that traditional spring training cannot replicate.
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WBC Pitchers Face Real Risk, Especially Starters
Pitchers tell a different story. Only 42.3% of 92 qualifying WBC pitchers posted a lower ERA in the subsequent season. The average ERA increase was +0.41, roughly double what normal year-to-year variance would predict.
The split between starters and relievers was stark. WBC starting pitchers saw an average ERA increase of +0.58 in the following season. Relievers were barely affected at +0.18, just slightly above the league-wide average of +0.12.
The 2023 WBC illustrated both sides. Shohei Ohtani won tournament MVP with a 1.86 ERA and 11 strikeouts in 9.2 innings, then struck out Mike Trout to clinch the title. He returned to the Angels and pitched to a 3.14 ERA before tearing his UCL in August. While the WBC alone did not cause the tear, the additional March innings on a previously repaired ligament likely contributed to the timeline.
On the other hand, Cristopher Sanchez threw limited WBC innings for the Dominican Republic and broke out with a 3.44 ERA for the Phillies, using the high-pressure exposure as a development accelerator.
Relievers consistently showed minimal impact across all five tournaments, likely because their WBC workloads mirror what they would do in spring training anyway.
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What This Means for 2026 Betting and Fantasy Baseball
The 2026 WBC sends 78 All-Stars to the tournament, meaning these effects will touch a significant portion of the league's best players.
Bettors should target WBC hitters for April and May player props. Judge, Ohtani, Soto, Bobby Witt Jr., Vladimir Guerrero Jr., and Fernando Tatis Jr. all enter the regular season with competitive at-bats already under their belt. The historical data says they will be sharper out of the gate than non-participants.
On the pitching side, consider fading WBC starters in early-season props. Paul Skenes, Brayan Bello, Cristopher Sanchez, and Ranger Suarez are all carrying WBC starter workloads into demanding MLB rotation roles. Overs on their April ERA props have historical backing. Tarik Skubal is the exception — he has committed to just one start with a strict pitch count, and pitchers under 40 total WBC pitches historically show no meaningful ERA increase.
Teams sending heavy pitching representation to the WBC, including the Phillies, Red Sox, and Brewers, could see shaky rotations in April. Factor that into early-season team totals.
The signal has been consistent across 17 years and five tournaments: back the bats, fade the arms.
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