Collette Calls: With Intent to Steal

A cursory search of my RotoWire article history shows you I like to write about steals. I have written about how predictive stolen bases in spring training can be because there has been a strong correlation between spring running and regular season effort as a whole, whereas the correlation weakens when trying to apply it at the individual player level.

One topic I love to revisit annually is intent to steal -- particularly this year, just a season removed from witnessing Juan Soto lead the National League in steals and Josh Naylor swiping 30 bases. Neither player has the speed we associate with thievery, yet they very much had the intent to steal, much like Shohei Ohtani did in 2024 when he pulled off 50-50 season before dialing it back and stealing 18 fewer bases than Soto in 2025.

Intent -- at the player level -- is tough to quantify because we cannot get inside a player's head. Jazz Chisholm Jr. stated last week he is targeting a 50-50 season and was not threatened when learning it has only been done once in baseball history. Players can say all they wish, but at the end of the day it is the manager deciding who runs and does not when on base. Fortunately, we can measure intent, both in the spring and during the regular season.

Last spring we saw the league attempt 1039 steals over 456 contests, computing out to 2.28 steals attempted per contest. Had that rate carried over into the regular season, it would have represented a 1.1 percent increase in attempts compared to 2024, but we in fact saw a 4.4 percent decrease in stolen base attempts. One driver of that downturn was an increase in home runs, as we saw a 3.6 percent boost in the league-wide home run rate in 2025. We saw the decrease show up for several teams, most notably Cincinnati, which changed managers.

The Reds ran early and often under former skipper David Bell and were led by Elly De La Cruz at a historical frequency, which he was not able to repeat in 2025. New manager Terry Francona came in with a lead-foot reputation from his previous stops, but perhaps the roster needed to earn his trust, because the club attempted just 135 steals in 2025 -- a 51 percent decrease from the 252 attempts made the year before with Bell. The next largest decline in steals from 2024 also included a managerial change, albeit an in-season one.

The Nationals dismissed Dave Martinez on July 6th following a 37-53 start to the season. The club, at that time, had the fourth most stolen base attempts in the league, trailing only the Rays, Cubs and Brewers. Miguel Cairo finished out the campaign, and the club dropped to 13th overall in attempted steals, with 72 attempts the rest of the season -- well behind the league-leading 95 attempts the Rays racked up over that time.

In all, four clubs had new managers in 2025, and here is how each of them teams fared under new leadership. Stolen Bases Attempted (SBA) = steals + caught stealing divided by stolen base opportunities, per Baseball Reference.

Wilson had a head start on the others since he took over for the dismissed Scott Servais in 2024, and we could already see his aggressive tendencies once in the summer of that year. Going back one year further, there were eight new managers, so it might be helpful to lump in last year's four with the previous eight given the fact we have nine new managers in the league this season.

The collective group led to a 7.7 percent increase in steals over the previous season, with the efforts of Pat Murphy and Ron Washington doing some heavy lifting. 

Among the nine new managers in 2026, only two -- Skip Schumaker and Derek Shelton -- have been managers at the big-league level in recent seasons. The rest of the class includes a coach from the college ranks, a recently-retired former player, two former catchers in the Rays organization and someone who is younger than many of you reading this article.

I will not pretend to know the managerial tendencies of the unknown, as we truly will not know anything until we see what they do in camp and how things play out in the regular season.

We will first look at the two clubs bringing back experienced managers before looking at possible impacts with the other seven skippers. 

Minnesota Twins

New Manager: Derek Shelton

The Twins had five different players steal at least 10 bases, and six attempt at least as many, with Byron Buxton leading the crew at a perfect 24-for-24. The team did not add any notable steals merchants this winter, so it is expected Buxton, Luke Keaschall, Royce Lewis and Austin Martin will be the ones running should Shelton employ the running game. Shelton was dismissed by the Pirates early in the 2025 season, so we have to look back to 2024 to see what the club did, and Pittsburgh was 20th in overall attempts. It took an improbable healthy season from Buxton just to give the Twins the number they had, so I am taking the under on the Twins coming close to the 148 steals they attempted in 2025.

Texas Rangers

New Manager: Skip Schumaker

Schumaker was around the Rangers team in 2025 as an advisor before assuming the manager role for the coming season. He led one of the more passive running games in 2023 as the rest of the league tested out the limits of the new rules, and the Marlins were a bottom-5 club in stolen base attempts. Yet, Schumaker let the 2024 Marlins run nearly as often as the 2025 Rangers. Both clubs ran higher than league average when presented with the opportunity to do so, which bodes well for Wyatt Langford, Evan Carter, Brandon Nimmo and Josh Smith in 2026. 

San Francisco Giants

New Manager: Tony Vitello

The Giants, under Bob Melvin, were nothing if not consistently passive on the basepaths. They were one of the bottom three teams in stolen base attempts each of the past two seasons, and I am not even going to pretend to know what Vitello may or may not do with the running game. There is not one player on the roster that is projected for even 20 steals, and just two are expected to hit double digits. This feels like an obvious growth opportunity for Vitello and the club, but the roster is not exactly stocked with stolen-base upside.

Los Angeles Angels

New Manager: Kurt Suzuki

The Angels ran under Washington in 2024, but last year was a completely different story, even before Washington took a permanent leave of absence. The Angels were 28th in the league in stolen base attempts before Washington's departure, but they jumped up to the middle of the pack under Ray Montgomery. Suzuki comes in with zero experience and on a one-year deal, so he could take the "YOLO" approach and let Zach Neto and the efficient Josh Lowe run as they please. However, this still mostly a softball-style roster, so I am not certain how useful it is to speculate on sleeper speed sources, unless you feel Bryce Teodosio can function as a full-time player once the injuries start stacking up for the Angels like they usually do.

Baltimore Orioles

New Manager: Craig Albernaz

Brandon Hyde increased the running game slightly last season, but he has since departed to join the Rays, with former Rays minor-league catcher Albernaz inheriting his first managerial role after working as a bullpen, catching and bench coach for the Giants and Guardians. Albernaz grew up with the Rays and witnessed their aggressive approach first hand, and he was also shoulder-to-shoulder with Stephen Vogt, who has been one of the more aggressive managers despite a similar lack of experience. Baltimore has enough youth in Gunnar Henderson, Dylan Beavers and Colton Cowser to exploit the running game, but this team also more closely exemplifies a slow-pitch softball team that is going to be comfortable waiting for three-run homers.

San Diego Padres

New Manager: Craig Stammen

Stammen was pitching in the majors as recently as 2022, and he now gets his first managerial job at the big-league level with a team up for sale that spent the offseason weeding through the bargain bin to fill all the spots vacated by minor-leaguers who were sent out by general manager A.J. Preller in recent years. Fernando Tatis Jr. may hit cleanup, which could cut into his running chances, but it is expected a healthy Jackson Merrill will rack up double-digit steals in 2026. Ramon Laureano could do the same, but it would not be shocking to see San Diego post a similar SBA% in 2026. 

Colorado Rockies

New Manager: Warren Schaeffer

Bud Black was dismissed by the Rockies in May following a 7-33 start, and interim manager Schaeffer was awarded the full-time job over the winter after leading the Rockies to a 36-86 record the rest of the way. The Rockies were one of just 11 clubs that failed to steal 100 bases last season, and worse yet, their 69 percent success rate was the worst in baseball. Jake McCarthy, Willi Castro, Brenton Doyle, Tyler Freeman and Jordan Beck are all projected for 10+ steals this season, but the Rockies have to do better unless Schaeffer realizes the club is what it is and continues to press matters on the bases. Schaeffer at least has experience, having managed throughout the Colorado system since 2015 in Asheville, Hartford and Albuquerque. 

Atlanta Braves

New Manager: Walt Weiss

Maybe it was the varying degrees of health, but Brian Snitker was not one to lean on the running game often. As a result, Michael Harris II and Ozzie Albies were the only regulars to steal as many as 10 bases in 2025. A healthy Ronald Acuna Jr. will change that, and it would not be surprising to see Jurickson Profar get there. Weiss -- while managing the Rockies in the middle years of the previous decade -- had the club slightly above league average in attempts, so it would not surprise me to see Atlanta's SBA% increase in 2026.

Washington Nationals

New Manager: Blake Butera

We have already discussed the impact Martinez's departure had on the running game. The Nationals have the youngest roster in baseball but also plenty of athleticism, and they now get a coach who played minor-league baseball with the Rays in 2015 and 2016. He made enough of an impression that he was named manager of the club's short-season team in Hudson Valley at age 25, and he moved his way up to Charleston before taking a front-office position in Tampa Bay. Martinez was an extreme runner, but I would expect the Nationals to come somewhere between the last two seasons as they look to produce more runs than their terrible pitching staff allows -- particularly with Nasim Nunez and Jacob Young at the bottom of the lineup. 

We will come back to steals later in March to see how things shake out in Florida and Arizona. Speaking of Arizona, I will be there this coming weekend for the AL-Only LABR draft as well as the SABR convention happening at the same time. Say hello if you're there, otherwise be sure to check back for my draft review next week.

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