This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.
The first round of the Australian Open continues Monday from the hard courts of Melbourne Park in Melbourne, Australia, with the action starting Sunday night in the United States. Picking against a former champion here could prove to be a wise move given more recent developments, while a top-15 men's seed is on upset alert and a player who surged to close out 2025 looks to carry their momentum into the new year.
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All men's singles matches at Grand Slams such as the Australian Open are best of five sets, while women's singles matches are best of three sets. A mix of players' previous hard court results, recent form and stylistic matchups can help pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities, both among favorites likely to cruise to victory and underdogs ready to pull off upsets. The aforementioned underdogs are highlighted in the Upset Alert section, the Lock It In section covers players who can safely be viewed as favorites, while the Value Bets section recommends enticing options in matchups that are considered closer to toss-ups.
Australian Open Tennis Picks: Upset Alert
Mattia Bellucci (+399) vs. Casper Ruud
Ruud has had more than his fair share of letdowns on faster surfaces, as his consistent top-20 ranking is a result of his exceptional clay-court performance. He's a pedestrian 8-6 in his career at the Australian Open and has failed to surpass the second round in four of his last five Grand Slam appearances overall. Bellucci packs a lot of power into his 5-foot-9 frame and thrives on his first-serve points, so a strong serving performance out of the 76th-ranked Italian lefty would create a tough test for Ruud in court conditions that are far from the 12th-seeded Norwegian's favorite.
Tatjana Maria (+195) vs. Petra Marcinko
There's no substitute for experience, and the 38-year-old Maria has a massive edge in that department over the 20-year-old Marcinko. This will be the 49th Grand Slam main draw appearance for Maria and only the first for Marcinko, so nerves could certainly come into play for the latter here. Maria also has a 39-spot edge in the rankings at No. 42, though that advantage is due primarily to stronger play on grass, where the crafty German's slices and spins are most effective. Even on hard courts, Maria's a difficult matchup to game plan for, making the veteran a strong underdog pick against an inexperienced opponent without a top-50 win in her career.
Honorable Mention
Roberto Bautista Agut (+250) vs. Juncheng Shang
Australian Open Tennis Odds: Lock It In
Learner Tien (-193) vs. Marcos Giron
These two Americans are at vastly different stages of their respective careers. The 20-year-old Tien has already cracked the top 30 in the rankings and is looking to continue his rapid ascent after winning the Next Gen ATP Finals to close out a breakout 2025 season that included a run to the Round of 16 at last year's Australian Open. Meanwhile, the 32-year-old Giron has never cracked the top 35 in the rankings and is just 2-6 in his career at the Australian Open. Giron's currently ranked 22 spots behind Tien at No. 51. The lefty Tien has the tools to consistently find favorable rally patterns by directing the ball to Giron's vulnerable backhand.
Valentin Vacherot (-208) vs. Martin Damm
Vacherot propelled himself into the seeded range with a late surge to close out 2025, beating Novak Djokovic en route to winning a Masters 1000 event in Shanghai and following that up with a quarterfinal Masters 1000 showing in Paris. Both of those showings came on indoor hard courts, but the 6-foot-4 Monegasque player's power game should work just fine outdoors, even with the elements adding a layer of difficulty to timing the ball. The 27-year-old Vacherot won't take this opportunity for granted in just his second career Grand Slam main draw appearance, and he has a comfortable draw against the 177th-ranked qualifier Damm, who has just three career wins at the ATP Tour level at age 22.
Honorable Mention
Jessica Bouzas Maneiro (-262) vs. Storm Hunter
Australian Open Tennis Predictions: Value Bets
Barbora Krejcikova (+139) vs. Diana Shnaider
Krejcikova's No. 58 ranking doesn't nearly do her ability justice. She missed last year's Australian Open due to an injury, but the two-time Grand Slam champion has one of the highest ceilings in the draw. Krejcikova reached the quarterfinals here the last time she played and also made the quarterfinals at the U.S. Open in her most recent Grand Slam appearance. Shnaider is the No. 23 seed but hasn't played her best tennis at Grand Slams in her young career, with just an 11-10 record in majors. The 21-year-old Russian spent the first half of 2025 in the top 15 but hasn't proven capable of taking the next step at the biggest tournaments and will have a hard time doing so here given her difficult draw against a player with a superior track record.
Laslo Djere (-113) vs. Stan Wawrinka
Wawrinka got entry into the main draw as a wild card, but the three-time Grand Slam champion is far removed from his prime at age 40. He's currently ranked 139th and has a record of just 5-18 since the start of 2025. Djere isn't a world beater himself, but the 92nd-ranked Serb is much closer to his prime at age 30 and notched a straight-sets hard-court win over Wawrinka in their most recent meeting in 2024. Wawrinka hasn't won a match at the Australian Open since 2021, so he's nowhere near the level of player he was when he won this title in 2014.
Honorable Mention
Ella Seidel (+115) vs. Oksana Selekhmeteva
