This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.
2025 U.S. Open: Pegula, Anisimova try to set up all-American Women's Final
The U.S. Open women's semifinals will be played Thursday on the hard courts of the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center in New York. Thursday's semifinal matchups include a rematch of last year's final and a clash between two players rediscovering their peak form from a few years ago.
All Tennis Odds & Lines below are taken from DraftKings Sportsbook, but you can sometimes find more favorable odds for tennis betting by checking other best sports betting sites and sports betting apps. We offer exclusive sportsbook promos in states where sports betting has gone live.
All women's singles matches are best of three sets. A mix of players' previous hard court results, recent form and stylistic matchups can help pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities in Thursday's women's semifinal matches.
U.S. Open Tennis Picks: Sabalenka vs. Pegula
Aryna Sabalenka (-330) vs. Jessica Pegula (+240)
Sabalenka was the beneficiary of Marketa Vondrousova's unfortunate knee injury in practice just before they were set to face off in the quarterfinals, giving the world No. 1 a free pass to the semifinals instead of a difficult matchup against a player who has given her a lot of trouble in previous matchups. Facing Pegula is a much more comfortable matchup for Sabalenka, who can generally get on the front foot in baseline exchanges against the American.
Sabalenka has a 7-2 head-to-head edge over Pegula, including straight-sets wins on hard court in each of their last three encounters, one of which was the 2024 U.S. Open final. Neither player has dropped a set in this tournament, but both have benefited from easy draws, as Sabalenka's third-round win over No. 31 seed Leylah Fernandez is the only victory over a seeded opponent for either player.
U.S. Open Women's Semifinal Prediction: Sabalenka def. Pegula 6-3, 6-7, 6-3
U.S. Open Tennis Picks: Osaka vs. Anisimova
Naomi Osaka (-140) vs. Amanda Anisimova (+110)
Both of these players have hit some mental low points in recent years but are playing inspired and effective tennis at the moment. The 23rd-seeded Osaka is 11-1 in her last 12 matches, having reached the final of the Canadian Open prior to this run at the U.S. Open, which has included three consecutive wins over top-15 seeds in her last three matches. She's 4-0 in Grand Slam semifinals in her career, having won all four previous majors in which she reached at least the quarterfinals, though the last of those came back in 2021.
Anisimova just pulled off arguably the biggest win of her career, taking out the red-hot Iga Swiatek 6-4, 6-3 in the quarterfinals aftrer Swiatek had double bageled the 24-year-old American in the Wimbledon final. That loss to Swiatek at Wimbledon is Anisimova's only defeat in the No. 8 seed's last 12 Grand Slam matches. Anisimova seemed to let down mentally after reaching the final at Wimbledon, but she knows the job isn't done at this tournament. Osaka will get more free points with her serve, but Anisimova should get the better of their powerful baseline exchanges with superior ability to absorb power while dishing out her own. The crowd will be split in this one despite Anisimova being the only American, but Anisimova can fall back on her 2-0 head-to-head edge over Osaka, with both previous matches coming in Grand Slams.
U.S. Open Women's Semifinal Prediction: Anisimova def. Osaka 6-4, 3-6, 6-3
