This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.
2025 U.S. Open: Three Multi-Slam Winners in Wednesday's QF Action
The quarterfinals of the U.S. Open continue Wednesday from the hard courts of the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center in New York. An American underdog tries to avenge a Grand Slam final loss, while a pair of former semifinalists here look to get back to that stage.
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All men's singles matches at Grand Slams such as the U.S. Open are best of five sets, while women's singles matches are best of three sets. A mix of players' previous hard court results, recent form and stylistic matchups can help pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities, both among favorites likely to cruise to victory and underdogs ready to pull off upsets. The aforementioned underdogs are highlighted in the Upset Alert section, the Lock It In section covers players who can safely be viewed as favorites, while the Value Bets section recommends enticing options in matchups that are considered closer to toss-ups.
U.S. Open Tennis Picks: Upset Alert
Karolina Muchova (+200) vs. Naomi Osaka
It wouldn't be surprising to see chalk hold up in all three matches with an obvious favorite Wednesday, but Muchova has the best chance out of the underdogs to spoil the party. Despite looking less than 100 percent healthy here due to her persistent back problems, Muchova has persevered through four consecutive three-set wins, so she knows how to handle the big moments in tight matches. She's looking to reach the semifinals here for a third consecutive year, so Muchova plays some of her best tennis in these conditions. Osaka's 12-0 in the quarterfinals and onward at Grand Slams in her career, but her last chance to play such a match came back at the 2021 Australian Open. The four-time Grand Slam champion has displayed her best form since that point the past few weeks, reaching the Canadian Open final and subsequently beating two top-15 seeds at this tournament, including Coco Gauff. Muchova's seeded 12 spots higher than Osaka at No. 11, but that doesn't mean much. Their 2-2 head-to-head suggests there isn't much separating these two, with Muchova having eliminated Osaka at last year's U.S. Open before Osaka returned the favor at this year's Australian Open. Osaka can dominate baseline rallies with her superior power, but Muchova will try to throw Osaka off her game with variety in this clash of styles.
U.S. Open Tennis Odds: Lock It In
Iga Swiatek (-350) vs. Amanda Anisimova
Anisimova can't do any worse than her only previous matchup against Swiatek, in which the American failed to win a single game while being overwhelmed by nerves in the final of Wimbledon. The good news for Anisimova is that's her only loss in her last 11 Grand Slam matches, and having the crowd in her corner should help settle the New Jersey native down in this rematch. Anisimova's power off the ground can keep Swiatek off balance, but it's hard to see the red-hot Iga falling here given the No. 2 seed's confidence in this specific matchup and more broadly after dropping only two sets across her last 11 matches in Grand Slams.
Honorable Mention
Jannik Sinner (-2000) vs. Lorenzo Musetti
U.S. Open Tennis Predictions: Value Bets
Felix Auger-Aliassime (+120) vs. Alex de Minaur
Auger-Aliassime has already beaten two top-15 players in this tournament, and the 25th-seeded Canadian's serve and forehand will be the biggest weapons on the court in this matchup. De Minaur's a high-floor player with superb speed and counterpunching skills, but he's 0-5 in his career in Grand Slams quarterfinals. FAA has a higher peak to his game and reached the U.S. Open semifinals in 2021, so the eighth-seeded de Minaur will have most of the pressure on him in this match while his North American opponent enjoys most of the crowd support. Auger-Aliassime leads their head-to-head 2-1, with straight-sets wins in both of their previous hard-court encounters.
