This article is part of our NASCAR DFS series.
GOVX 200
Location: Avondale, Arizona
Course: Phoenix Raceway
Format: Oval
Length: 1 mile
Laps: 200
NASCAR O'Reilly Auto Parts Series Race Preview
There have been plenty of storylines early in the O'Reilly Auto Parts Series, as is typically the case with superspeedways and road courses on the calendar. Austin Hill continued his dominance at Daytona, Sheldon Creed earned his first win in the series at Atlanta and Shane van Gisbergen was predictably dominant at COTA. The calendar will now flip to a string of more traditional intermediate and short tracks. That starts this weekend at Phoenix.
Key Stats at Phoenix Raceway
- Number of Races: 48
- Winners from Pole: 11
- Winners from Top 5: 38
- Winners from Top 10: 43
Previous Winners at Phoenix Raceway
2025 fall – Jesse Love
2025 spring – Aric Almirola
2024 fall- Riley Herbst
2024 spring- Chandler Smith
2023 fall- Cole Custer
2023 spring - Sammy Smith
2022 fall- Ty Gibbs
2022 spring- Noah Gragson
2021 fall- Daniel Hemric
2021 spring - Austin Cindric
Track position has historically been the key king in Phoenix, though things have changed slightly in the last few races. For example, of the 10 winners that have qualified outside of the top five, four have come in the last six races. Qualifying inside the top remains a near requirement, but that isn't all that unique from most intermediate tracks.
Unlike the first three races of the season, this also isn't a track where we've seen one or a handful of drivers dominate wins. Since Austin Cindric won in the fall of 2020 and spring of 2021, there hasn't been a repeat winner at Phoenix. That trend won't necessarily continue, but the field is the most open heading into the weekend that we've seen all season.
NASCAR O'Reilly Auto Parts Series DFS Tools
DraftKings Values for the GOVX 200
Based on a Standard $50K Salary Cap
Tier 1 DraftKings Values
William Byron - $12,000
Justin Allgaier - $11,500
Jesse Love- $10,500
Tier 2 DraftKings Values
Sheldon Creed - $10,000
Taylor Gray - $9,400
Tier 3 DraftKings Values
Rajah Caruth - $8,200
William Sawalich - $8,000
Chandler Smith - $7,800
Corey Day - $7,700
Nick Sanchez - $7,200
Tier 4 DraftKings Values
Dean Thompson - $6,800
Brennan Poole - $6,100
Lavar Scott - $4,900
Optimal DraftKings Lineup for the GOVX 250
Jesse Love- $10,500
Sheldon Creed - $10,000
William Sawalich - $8,000
Chandler Smith- $7,800
Nick Sanchez- $7,200
Brennan Poole - $6,100
There have generally been one or two heavy favorites to win each of the first three races, with the rest of the field relatively open below them. The race at Phoenix will offer a bit of a different dynamic. While some drivers certainly have a better track record than others, there isn't the level of dominance equal to that of Austin Hill at superspeedways or Shane van Gisbergen and Connor Zilisch on road courses. That should make DFS players more content to pay down at the top tiers of pricing and focus on getting multiple chances of drivers that can truly compete for the win.
As is the case at many intermediate tracks, Allgaier has a strong record at Phoenix. He's finished four of the last six races inside the top five at the track, and he also leads all drivers with 289 laps led in that span. Love's track record isn't nearly as long, but he has two top-five finishes in his four races at Phoenix, and he's finished inside the top 10 in all four races. The interest in William Byron is fairly self-explanatory, and he isn't priced particularly prohibitively considering his pedigree.
Sheldon Creed arguably belongs with the other Tier 1 drivers. Referring back to the historical significance of qualifying for this weekend's race, Creed has an average start of 3.8 across his last six races at Phoenix. That's good for the second-best mark among any driver in this year's field, and the two that beat him (more on them soon) have completed far fewer races. Creed has converted those starting positions into five top-10 finishes and three top-five finishes. With the pressure of his first career win in the series behind him, perhaps the second will come quicker.
Paying down a bit at the top of the driver pool opens up salary to take advantage of several strong values in the middle tiers. William Sawalich, Chandler Smith and Corey Day are my favorites of the group. Sawalich only has last year's races on his resume, but he qualified sixth and first for those two races. The results didn't follow, but his start to the season (fill in ) suggests he could have more success in his second year in the series. Smith has arguably the best case to be a lock for lineups this weekend and is an excellent value. He's run four times at Phoenix in this series across the last three years and has one win, three top-five finishes and four top-10 finishes. Day has made a lot of mistakes in his first few races as a full-time driver and seemingly angered most of the field at various points, but he's had strong results. Those mistakes will catch up to him eventually, but he's at least worth considering until his price rises due to the clear speed in his Hendrick Motorsports ride.
Before moving on to some budget-saving options, it's worth briefly noting that Taylor Gray is comparable to Sawalich in his qualifying (2nd and ninth last season) and turned in better results. He's a good option for those who can't afford to build in Creed, or simply want an alternative. Sanchez hasn't had a strong start to the season, but he also has a strong qualifying history at the track. Perhaps he can get his season going this weekend.
As for the cost-saving drivers, Thompson showed speed in Phoenix last season. He qualified ninth and 12th, which could put him in the position to score plenty of DK points. Poole has had an excellent start to the season, and he's done so by qualifying poorly and working his way through the field – a strong combination for the DK scoring system. Scott is an even riskier version of Poole, but he would open up the ability to roster William Byron while still being able to roster some of the solid options in the middle of the field that have been covered.
Best Bets for the GOVX 200
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of 3:00 PM ET Friday
Outright Winner – Jesse Love (+600), Taylor Gray (+1200), William Sawalich (+2500)
Top 5 Finish – Sheldon Creed (+150), William Sawalich (+275), Chandler Smith (+450)
Because there isn't one or two drivers that clearly stand out from the rest of the field, there are some favorable odds for the first time this season. That begins with Love, who won at this track to take home the Championship last season. He's failed to start lower than seventh in any race and has finished inside the top two in two of his four starts at Phoenix. Allgaier and Byron both have shorter odds to win, leaving Love as the value selection of what can be considered the top tier of potential winners.
Creed's track record at Phoenix has been covered, leaving him as arguably the most likely driver to get a positive result. Sawalich and Gray both have track records of speed at the track, while Smith has proven results. Each are relative longshots but are good options for those willing to take on a bit more risk.
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