This article is part of our UFC Picks series.
The UFC is in Abu Dhabi, Dubai, on Saturday for a solid UFC 321 pay-per-view card. The main event sees the heavyweight title up for grabs as Tom Aspinall looks to defend his belt against Ciryl Gane.
UFC 321: MMA Betting Picks and Odds Insight
Below, I'll share my UFC 321 predictions, including my favorite pick, an underdog, a prop, and a two-fighter parlay. All UFC odds are via the DraftKings Sportsbook and are accurate as of the post date of this article.
Weight Class: Light Heavyweight
Azamat Murzakanov (15-0) vs. Aleksandar Rakic (14-5)
Opening up the main card of UFC 321 is a pivotal light heavyweight fight between Azamat Murzakanov and Aleksandar Rakic, and this is a good spot for Murzakanov to get the win at a pick'em.
Murzakanov has impressed me, as he has great wrestling and heavy power. Rakic, meanwhile, is on a three-fight losing streak, and although he has only lost to the best, his chin has been tested.
Murzakanov packs a heavy punch, and he should be able to land the more damaging shots and could even TKO Rakic. The undefeated Russian also has good wrestling, which he can use to clinch Rakic and win the minutes if it does go the distance. I still think this plays out on the feet, though, where Murzakanov will do the more damaging shots to get the win.
UFC 321 Bet: Azamat Murzakanov (-110)
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Weight Class: Lightweight
Quillan Salkilld (9-1) vs. Nasrat Haqparast (18-5)
For my underdog pick at UFC 321, I'm taking Quillan Salkilld to beat Nasrat Haqparast as a slight underdog.
Haqparast is on a five-fight winning streak, but his last two wins have come by split decision, and there was a case he lost both. Salkilld, meanwhile, is 2-0 in the UFC and has looked impressive, as he's an excellent strike that throws at a high volume (5.48 landed/minute).
On the feet, Haqparast is there to be hit, as he absorbs 6.01 significant strikes per minute, which is concerning against someone as powerful as Salkilld. Salkilld can also wrestle Haqparast to help win the minutes, as this fight will likely go the distance, but I like the Aussie to land the more damaging shots to get the win as an underdog.
UFC 321 Bet: Quillan Salkilld (-105)
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Weight Class: Bantamweight
Umar Nurmagomedov (18-1) vs. Mario Bautista (16-2)
For my prop at UFC 321, I'm taking Umar Nurmagomedov to defeat Mario Bautista by decision.
Nurmagomedov is a massive -625 favorite, but for him to win a decision -- the most likely outcome in my eyes -- is just -170, which makes it great value.
Bautista is very durable, and has good submission defense and takedown defense. Nurmagomedov also isn't known for his power or finishing ability, as he's won by decision in three of his last four fights.
Nurmagomedov should be able to grind out minutes by outwrestling and clinching Bautista to extend the fight and win a clear-cut decision.
UFC 321 Bet: Umar Nurmagomedov by decision (-170)
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Weight Class: Middleweight & Heavyweight
Ikram Aliskerov (16-2) vs. Jun Yong Park (19-6)
Tom Aspinall (15-3) vs. Ciryl Gane (13-2)
For my parlay at UFC 321, I'm taking Ikram Aliskerov and Tom Aspinall to get their hands raised in Abu Dhabi on Saturday.
Aliskerov is coming off a first-round KO win over Andre Muniz to get back into the win column after a KO loss to Whittaker. This is a good matchup for Aliskerov, who's known for his power, as Park has been clipped before. Aliskerov is also a good wrestler, but he should keep it standing and likely earn a TKO win here.
To close out the parlay, I'm backing Aspinall to defend his heavyweight title against Ciryl Gane. Aspinall is a threat on the feet and with his grappling, and we have seen Gane struggle on the mat before.
Aspinall should be able to land the more damaging shots on the feet and then take Gane down, and likely get a ground-and-pound TKO or a submission victory to defend his belt.
UFC 321 Bet: Ikram Aliskerov & Tom Aspinall parlay (-120)
UFC 321 Best Bets
Here is a recap of my best UFC picks for this weekend's UFC 321 card.
- Azamat Murzakanov (-110)
- Quillan Salkilld (-105)
- Umar Nurmagomedov by decision (-170)
- Ikram Aliskerov & Tom Aspinall (-120)
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