Top Picks and Predictions for UFC 324, Gaethje vs. Pimblett
The UFC is finally back in our lives after nearly a month-long hiatus. We'll break down each bout on the UFC 324 card, highlighting the best places to potentially profit. Picks this week include a perennial title contender making his return from injuries, and a once-promising lightweight who may be making a charge up the division. Our betting lines this week come from the RotoWire MMA betting page and are accurate to the post date of this article.
UFC Plays to Consider on DraftKings
Umar Nurmagomedov ($9,900)
It feels like Umar is in a holding pattern until he gets another bantamweight title shot. In the meantime, he should roll over Deiveson Figueiredo, whose grappling has become central to his offense. We have seen Umar get clipped before, and the Brazilian should have a speed advantage, but Figueiredo has never been a volume puncher, and it should only be a matter of time before he gets the fight where he wants it. While the price is steep, Umar's lowest score in his past four wins has been 108.5, and I expect him to dominate on the ground, as per usual.
Josh Hokit ($9,000)
I have concerns that Hokit's game isn't deep enough to make a meaningful push in the heavyweight division. Still, Denzel Freeman has shown hesitancy to engage, and "The Incredible Hok" looks to roll downhill early. This will present an opportunity for Hokit to take control of the fight and land meaningful offense before his opponent has his bearings.
Paddy Pimblett ($8,900)
We have seen two elite grapplers get top position against Justin Gaethje, and both Charles Oliveira and Khabib Nurmagomedov submitted him without much effort. Pimblett is bigger than either of those men, and he is tricky in scrambles when looking for the tap. It's worth noting that Pimblett can get backed to the cage, and Gaethjie's power remains intact, so "The Highlight" is live to a knockout. Still, the discrepancy on the ground is too wide to pick this fight any other way.
Ricky Turcios ($7,600)
Turcios's all-action style makes him an intriguing play whenever he is an underdog, but he actually has a nice matchup against Cameron Smotherman. "The Baby-Faced Killer" is a solid boxer who hits hard, but he keeps his feet firmly planted in the pocket. This will allow Turcios to get in on his hips and land takedowns. While he hasn't had a ton of success in the organization, Turcios has been hard to hurt, having been knocked out just once in 17 professional fights.
Adam Fugitt ($6,900)
Ty Miller didn't defend a single leg kick in his appearance on the Contender Series, eating a whopping 16 in his win over Jimmy Drago. Fugitt will attempt to batter Miller's calf while keeping him honest with takedown attempts. Miller can throw long, crisp strikes, similar to the ones that hurt Fugitt against Islam Dulatov. However, Miller has just two finishes in six professional wins. which should allow Fugitt to stay in the fight and get his game working.
Charles Johnson ($8,800)
We don't often see Johnson as a significant favorite, but his wrestling, ability to fight going forward as well as backward, and power still give him plenty of value against Alex Perez, who tends to put full power behind everything he throws. Expect Johnson to pick the former title challenger apart before engaging in grappling, which should result in a comprehensive victory.
Try out these recommended fighters with different lineup combinations on our DraftKings UFC Lineup Optimizer.
UFC Plays to Consider on PrizePicks - Significant Strikes
Waldo Cortes-Acosta UNDER 27.5 Significant Strikes, Ateba Gautier UNDER 21.5 Significant Strikes, and Rose Namajunas UNDER 48.5 Significant Strikes
It's difficult to see the fight between Cortes-Acosta and Derrick Lewis lasting beyond the first few exchanges. This will likely be Lewis's doing, as "The Black Beast" has become less patient with age, trying to get in and out of the cage as quickly as possible. Cortes-Acosta has a stiff jab to accompany his granite chin, which should be enough to set Lewis up as he moves in for the kill.
Expect similarly short outings for Gautier and Andrey Pulyaev, as "The Silent Assassin" has only been outside of the first round three times in 10 professional fights, and Pulyaev is a powerful kickboxer who stands up tall in the pocket. As the more experienced fighter, Pulyaev may try to establish range, but this one will likely come down to who lands first.
Namajunas and Natalia Silva are both crafty strikers who like to keep range and dart in and out of the pocket. This could lead to a bit of a staring match, which ultimately concludes with Rose trying to work her grappling. This is one of the rare fights where totals may remain low even if the bout stays in space.
Interested in backing these or other selections on sites like PrizePicks? Check out the Best MMA Picks & Prop Bets by comparing lines to our projections using the RotoWire Picks & Props too
UFC bets to consider
Alexander Hernandez wins via KO/TKO (+295)
Johnson has used his speed, power, and wrestling to enjoy a bit of a resurgence in the twilight of his career, as the 39-year-old has won four of his last five fights. The issue is that "The Menace" won't have the advantage in any of these areas against Hernandez, who is enjoying his own four-fight win streak after his initial hype cooled. We've seen Johnson on the wrong side of one-punch knockouts on more than one occasion, and I don't think his durability will hold up here.
Sean O'Malley wins via KO/TKO (+350)
Yadong Song has the raw tools to be a problem on any given night, but defensive lapses and a tendency to overthrow will be there to be exploited for O'Malley, who will enjoy a five-inch reach advantage. Song will have a wrestling game in his back pocket, but we have rarely seen "The Kung Fu Kid" lean on his grappling as a means to win a fight, and certainly never against a dynamic athlete like O'Malley.
Arnold Allen (+240)
Allen will make his long-awaited return to the Octagon after a shoulder injury sidelined him for more than a year, and while it is worth wondering how he will acclimate to the explosivity of someone like Jean Silva after such a long layoff, I would argue the price is too good to pass on a fighter this skilled. We should also note that Allen won't be the only one dealing with uncertainty, as this will be Silva's first fight since being knocked out by Diego Lopes - the first such loss of his career. Silva's aggression and eagerness to put on a show often put him out of position, which the movement-heavy style of Allen should be able to take advantage of.
For more UFC wagers to consider, check out our MMA Best Bets for UFC 324 this weekend. For the latest in UFC odds, head to the RotoWire MMA Betting section.
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