This article is part of our DraftKings MMA series.
UFC Mexico Predictions: DraftKings DFS Preview & Picks
If you're hoping to turn the event into an opportunity to build your DFS bankroll, DraftKings.com has you covered with a full slate of contests, including a $400k UFC Throwdown with $100k to first place. Players get a $50,000 budget to select six fighters, and the scoring rules are noted at the bottom of the column. Let's get to the action...
Main Event - Flyweight
Brandon Moreno (23-9-2) v. Lone'er Kavanagh (9-1-0)
DK Salaries: Moreno ($8,700), Kavanagh ($7,500)
Vegas Odds: Moreno (-205), Kavanagh (+170)
Moreno was originally scheduled to face Asu Almabayev here before he was forced to withdraw due to a hand injury. Kavanagh was scheduled to compete on a different card a couple weeks later, so he should be in prime fighting shape regardless, although he wasn't due to potentially go five rounds originally.
Moreno remains firmly in title contention at 125 pounds despite posting wildly inconsistent results of late. He's just 2-3 in his past five fights dating back to July 2023, with the first two setbacks coming via split decision against Alexandre Pantoja (title fight) and Brandon Royval, and the most recent loss being a knockout -- the first of Moreno's professional career -- in December against Tatsuro Taira. This is a quick turnaround for a guy that has been fight twice a year, every year dating back to 2022.
This card is taking place in Mexico City, and it's clear as day the UFC was committed to keeping Moreno, a Mexican fighter, on the card regardless. Thus, Kavanagh gets the call. The 26-year-old is widely viewed as one of the better prospects in the division, but he has just three UFC fights under his belt. The first two were unanimous decision wins over fringe-roster competition in Felipe dos Santos and Jose Ochoa. The first time Kavanagh faced a decent opponent, last August against Charles Johnson, he was knocked out in Round 2.
Moreno is a talented all-around operator. That said, so much of his past success was directly tied to his toughness and his ability to dig deep and emerge victorious in hard-fought wars. His durability was elite for so long, and that makes the Taira loss all the more concerning. There's no shame in getting stopped by a guy that's a top-three flyweight by almost any measure, but if all the damage Moreno has taking over the years is starting to catch up to him, his outlook changes dramatically.
The question is, even if that's the case, is Kavanagh the guy to take advantage?
He wasn't able to get dos Santos or Ochoa out of there. Sure, he had a handful of knockout wins on the regional scene prior to his UFC arrival, but those were against opposition 99.9 percent of MMA fans have never heard of.
The advanced numbers have to be taken with a grain of salt because Moreno has been fighting the best in the world for years and years, and Kavanagh hasn't faced anyone on that level, ever.
Kavanagh is typically active enough on the feet (4.29 significant strikes landed per minute) to win rounds with volume, but can he do that with Moreno presumably in his face the entire time and the crowd against him? I have my doubts.
Best I can tell, this is the most lopsided card in UFC history in terms of large betting favorites. Virtually none of the fights are close. This is one that sort of is, which is why I won't fault anyone for taking a "dog shot" on Kavanagh, but I still think Moreno wins more often than not if the durability isn't completely gone.
UFC MEXICO PICK: Moreno
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Co-Main Event - Bantamweight
Marlon Vera (23-11-1) v. David Martinez (13-1-0)
DK Salaries: Vera ($7,300), Martinez ($8,900)
Vegas Odds: Vera (+235), Martinez (-290)
Vera turned 33 years of age in December. He's lost three in a row dating back to March 2024 and four of five dating back to March 2023. Vera is done as a contender in a loaded bantamweight division and it feels as if the company is simply doing him a favor giving him one more fight in what projects to be a very difficult matchup for him. The lone thing is Vera's favor is the fact, like Moreno, he's been facing elite competition for years.
Martinez was awarded a contract on Dana White's Contender Series in October 2024 despite the fact he won via decision. He made his official company debut last March and knocked out Saimon Oliveira before taking a unanimous decision from Rob Font in September. At just age 27, he's a legitimate prospect with real stand-up skills.
The two things working against Vera are the fact he absorbs too much damage on the feet and the fact he's a very slow starter. Marlon almost always takes the first round off and you simply can't do that in a three-round fight and live to tell about it. You're going to get burned eventually. Vera's hand speed has slowed and he's struggling to get his head off the center line. That's the exact type of opponent Martinez typically feasts upon.
I will say that at some point I think Martinez is going to get exposed by a high-level wrestler. He has no offensive grappling to speak of, and while his takedown defense is perfect thus far, it's far from a lock to remain that way moving forward.
I just don't think Vera, at this stage of his career, is going to spam takedown attempts, even if it's obviously his clearest path to victory. For what it's worth, Marlon hasn't landed a single takedown in a fight since June 2021. That is not a misprint.
If you're Martinez, would you rather face Font or Vera in a kickboxing match? I'd take the latter all day long and twice on Sundays. Font is a more talented pure striker and Vera is far worse defensively.
Vera is three inches taller, has a a three-inch reach edge and has never been knocked out, so I could certainly see him going the distance, but I'll take the younger guy with a massive edge in both explosiveness and pure power.
UFC MEXICO PICK: Martinez
Lightweight
Daniel Zellhuber (15-3-0) v. King Green (33-17-1, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Zellhuber ($9,400), Green ($6,800)
Vegas Odds: Zellhuber (-500), Green (+380)
A native of Mexico City, Zellhuber is getting a bit of the hometown rub on the main card despite having lost his last two fights. He won't be 27 years old until July, so there's certainly room for improvement, but a unanimous decision loss to 39-year-old Michael Johnson his last time out isn't a great look. He's got a nice matchup here to get back in the win column, but Zellhuber hasn't exactly been trustworthy during his six-fight UFC run despite having far more talent than his .500 record would lead you to believe.
Green continues to do his thing at age 39, winning and losing at about an equal rate while typically being matched up against much better competition than he should be facing. King snapped a two-fight losing streak his last time out with a split decision win over a debuting Lance Gibson Jr. in a mediocre performance. Taking into account his two losses before that came via submission against Mauricio Ruffy (KO) and Paddy Pimblett (submission), you realize Green probably shouldn't have been on a losing streak in the first place.
At 6-foot-1, Zellhuber is a giant for the lightweight division. Green is by no means a small man himself for 155 pounds at 5-foot-10, but he's going to be giving up a whopping six inches in reach in addition to the two inches in height. Both are notably relavant numbers given this figures to be a 15-minute (or less) kickboxing match.
Zellhuber has three career wins via submission, including one with the UFC, but I don't rate his grappling game. He's a one-dimensional brawler that is willing to eat a strike in order to land two of his own. It's evident by the numbers. Zellhuber averages 5.83 significant strikes landed per minute, while absorbing 5.91. No lightweight with that size and stand-up skill set should be getting hit more than their landing. It simply just can't happen.
Say what you will about Green, but he's more than willing to throw down. He put up 186 significant strikes against Jim Miller. He landed 137 against what was left of Tony Ferguson. Back in the day he racked up 188 against Nasrat Haqparast. All of those were three-round fights. He's going to be able to match Zellhuber in the volume department, while also having an edge in terms of grappling.
Zellhuber rarely gets taken down (94 percent) because he's so big, but I could see Green trying to steal a close round by getting his opponent to the mat late in a frame.
I'm taking Green in what is a pure value play. Do I think he wins? No, probably not, but the price is right and this theoretically sets up as the type of matchup in which he can showcase his greatest skills. You're going to have to make your stand somewhere, and there's next to nothing to choose from the lower you get on the card.
UFC MEXICO PICK: Green
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Flyweight
Edgar Chairez (12-6-0, 1NC) v. Felipe Bunes (14-8-0)
DK Salaries: Chairez ($9,000), Bunes ($7,200)
Vegas Odds: Chairez (-325), Bunes (+260)
Chairez has had a really weird UFC run despite not being with the company very long. He dropped a unanimous decision to Clayton Carpenter on Dana White's Contender Series in August 2022 and obviously didn't earn a contract in the process. He finally arrived on the scene in July 2023. In five official UFC bouts he's 2-2 (1NC), but the two setbacks came against an elite top contender in Tatsuro Taira and current UFC Flyweight Champion Joshua Van. In other words, Chairez might be pretty decent and we'd probably have no idea because a good chunk of his company fights have come against some of the best in the sport.
Going back to his ACA days, the 36-year-old Bunes is 4-6 in his past 10 fights. Three of those have come with the UFC, with the first coming against Van, so he finds himself in a bit of a similar situation as Chairez. Nothing in Felipe's profile suggests he's likely more than roster depth for the long term, but he's quite good on the mat and trains with the Pitbull Brothers.
As a result, so you're likely to get a competent effort most times out, win or lose.
Chairez's numbers are all screwed up because he faced Taira and Van. Sure, he's getting battered with five-plus (5.08) significant strikes per minute on average, but that's because in those two fights, he found himself on the short end of a 179-104 mark combined. Facing an opponent in Bunes with all of two knockout wins in 20-plus pro fights, my guess is Edgar looks like the much more polished striker for as long as this one stays standing.
On the flip side, it's a little tough to find anything the Brazilian does particularly well. He averages 2.93 significant strikes per minute, so you known he's not a big volume guy on the feet. He has legitimate submission skills on the mat, but how does he get the fight there? Bunes averages just 1.13 takedowns per 15 minutes whiles landing just 22 percent of his shots. Defensively, he's a terrible wrestler, defending the takedown at just a 40 percent clip.
And thus lies the problem for nearly this entire card. Chairez shouldn't be $9,000 and a -325 favorite over anyone. It's not a bet on him, it's a bet against Bunes, which is the case for pretty much every massive favorite on the undercard.
In this case, I think Chairez wins, but I have greater or less desire to use him than any of these other overpriced names coming up.
UFC MEXICO PICK: Chairez
Other Bouts
Flyweight
Imanol Rodriguez (6-0-0) v. Kevin Borjas (10-4-0)
DK Salaries: Rodriguez ($9,200), Borjas ($7,000)
Vegas Odds: Rodriguez (-410), Borjas (+320)
UFC MEXICO PICK: Rodriguez
Bantamweight
Santiago Luna (7-0-0) v. Angel Pacheco (7-3-0)
DK Salaries: Luna ($9,300), Pacheco ($6,900)
Vegas Odds: Luna (-575), Pacheco (+425)
UFC MEXICO PICK: Luna
Middleweight
Ryan Gandra (8-1-0) v. Jose Medina (11-6-0)
DK Salaries: Gandra ($9,500), Medina ($6,700)
Vegas Odds: Gandra (-625), Medina (+455)
UFC MEXICO PICK: Gandra
Women's Bantamweight
Ailin Perez (12-2-0) v. Macy Chiasson (11-5-0)
DK Salaries: Perez ($8,500), Chiasson ($7,700)
Vegas Odds: Perez (-180), Chiasson (+150)
UFC MEXICO PICK: Perez
Bantamweight
Cristian Quinonez (18-5-0) v. Kris Moutinho (14-7-0)
DK Salaries: Quinonez ($9,700), Moutinho ($6,500)
Vegas Odds: Quinonez (-675), Moutinho (+400)
UFC MEXICO PICK: Quinonez
Featherweight
Douglas Silva de Andrade (29-6-0, 1NC) v. Javier Reyes (22-5-0)
DK Salaries: Silva de Andrade ($7,600), Reyes ($8,600)
Vegas Odds: Silva de Andrade (+190), Reyes (-230)
UFC MEXICO PICK: Silva de Andrade
Women's Flyweight
Sofia Montenegro (6-2-0) v. Ernesta Kareckaite (6-1-1)
DK Salaries: Montenegro ($7,100), Kareckaite ($9,100)
Vegas Odds: Montenegro (+210), Kareckaite (-260)
UFC MEXICO PICK: Montenegro
Featherweight
Erik Silva (9-3-0) v. Francis Marshall (8-3-0)
DK Salaries: Silva ($6,600), Marshall ($9,600)
Vegas Odds: Silva (+500), Marshall (-700)
UFC MEXICO PICK: Marshall
Middleweight
Damian Pinas (8-1-0) v. Wes Schultz (8-2-0)
DK Salaries: Pinas ($8,800), Schultz ($7,400)
Vegas Odds: Pinas (-260), Schultz (+210)
UFC MEXICO PICK: Pinas
Note: All odds accurate as of time of posting, and taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook, if available. Check out DraftKings to bet on MMA Odds and use the DraftKings promo code for a great welcome offer.
Note: All odds accurate as of time of posting, and taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook, if available. Check out DraftKings to bet on MMA Odds and use the DraftKings promo code for a great welcome offer.
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DraftKings MMA Scoring
Note: Scoring has been updated as of early-2021! Please review the scoring changes below.
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 PTS
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 PTS
Control Time: +0.03 PTS/SECOND
Takedown (TD): +5 PTS
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 PTS
Knockdown (KD): +10 PTS
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 PTS
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 PTS
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 PTS
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 PTS
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 PTS
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 PTS
Quick Win Bonus: +25 PTS
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any Distance Strike or Clinch/Ground Strikes that are considered "Power Strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 Pts
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable amount of time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
