This article is part of our DraftKings MMA series.
Get top DraftKings MMA DFS picks and strategy for UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett. Build winning lineups with our preview, analysis & fighter breakdowns.
UFC 324 DraftKings DFS Preview and Picks
If you're hoping to turn the event into an opportunity to build your DFS bankroll, DraftKings.com has you covered with a full slate of contests, including a $600k UFC 324 Special with $200k to first place. Players get a $50,000 budget to select six fighters, and the scoring rules are noted at the bottom of the column. Let's get to the action...
UFC 324 Main Event - Interim Lightweight Championship
Justin Gaethje (26-5-0) v. Paddy Pimblett (23-3-0)
DK Salaries: Gaethje ($7,300), Pimblett ($8,900)
Vegas Odds: Gaethje (+190), Pimblett (-230)
Current UFC Lightweight Champion Ilia Topuria announced he wouldn't be competing in the first quarter of 2026 due to highly publicized personal matters, so the company decided to open the year and the Paramount era with a 155-pound interim title fight. Having said title fight without Arman Tsarukyan involved is another story entirely, but this should be a good bout.
Gaethje turned 37 years old in mid-November. He remains as entertaining as ever, but a deeper dive reveals massive concerns. He's 6-3 in his last nine fights dating back to September 2019, but those six wins are over Rafael Fiziev (twice), Dustin Poirier, Michael Chandler, Tony Ferguson and Donald Cerrone. Cerrone and Poirier are retired, Ferguson has lost eight straight fights, Chandler has lost five of six, and Fiziev has lost three of four. In other words, Gaethje is extremely fortunate to still be in consideration for a title fight, even if it's of the interim variety.
I freely admit I have zero idea what to make of Pimblett. I think I've picked against him in every single one of his seven UFC fights, and he's 7-0 with the company, to give you an idea how it's gone. I will say that Paddy appears to be improving. He's always been a good grappler, but his striking has improved and he's an underrated athlete. His two most notable wins are over Chandler and King Green, so he hasn't exactly been rolling over the best the division has to offer, but he's facing Gaethje here, not a guy like Tsarukyan.
Gaethje averages 6.59 significant strikes landed per minute, while absorbing 7.18 per minute. That said, he actually made a concerted effort to fight a bit more under control several fights back. Don't get me wrong, he's still ridiculously aggressive and doesn't employ any grappling at all despite having a background in wrestling, but Justin is picking his spots a bit better in the latter stages of his career while still maintaining much of his trademark power. I could see the decision adding a handful of fights to the back end of his career.
17 (seven knockouts, 10 submissions) of Paddy's 23 career wins are via stoppage. He's much better on the mat than feet despite knocking out Chandler and Green in his last two fights. He's got a three-inch reach edge over Gaethje, but he certainly doesn't want to be getting involved in a prolonged brawl if he hopes to emerge victorious.
Despite the 10 career submission victories, Pimblett isn't much of a wrestler. He averages less than one (0.96) takedowns per 15 minutes, so getting Gaethje, whose takedown defense is better than the 68 percent it's listed at, to the ground may be difficult.
As much as it pains me to say, I understand why Paddy is favored. He's looked strong of late and there's a non-zero chance Gaethje is essentially done in terms of fighting at this level. I'm still rolling with Justin because the value is strong and why not at this point, but be forewarned. A Pimblett win, maybe an easy one, is probably the most likely outcome.
UFC 324 PICK: Gaethje
Like this underdog suggestion? Try it out with different lineup combinations and generate up to 150 unique builds with our DraftKings UFC Lineup Optimizer.
UFC 324 Co-Main Event - Bantamweight
Sean O'Malley (18-3-0, 1NC) v. Yadong Song (22-8-1, 1NC)
DK Salaries: O'Malley ($8,800), Song ($7,400)
Vegas Odds: O'Malley (-205), Song (+170)
O'Malley clearly can't beat Merab Dvalishvili, but he's handled most everyone else at 135 pounds and remains a threat at the top of the division. He remains supremely dangerous on the feet, displaying both power and remarkably creativity. The struggles in the Merab fights predictably came when Dvalishvili got his wrestling game going. O'Malley isn't a good grappler and going up against a guy with the best cardio and tenacity in the history of the sport was a recipe for disaster. I expect a much better performance here.
Song is no pushover, however, and represents an entirely different set of challenges than Merab. On the surface, Song has been a middling fighter much of his UFC run. He's just 3-2 in his past five appearances and has long had difficulty winning the "big" fight. His most notable win with the company came his last time out, and that was against 38-year-old Henry Cejudo via technical decision. He needs a strong performance here, win or lose, if he wants to be taken seriously as a contender in a loaded bantamweight division.
With both guys averaging less than a takedown landed per 15 minutes, this has all the makings of a stand-up brawl.
In theory, that's the type of fight Song can win, but I have my doubts for numerous reasons.
For starters, O'Malley is three inches taller and will have a five-inch reach advantage. Song is going to have to crash the pocket in order to generate consistent offense and that's a recipe for potential disaster given Sean's elite, pinpoint striking.
Song does have fight-ending power, but O'Malley has been knocked out just once in his professional career and that came against Marlon Vera back in August 2020 in a fight in which he suffered a foot injury. In other words, the stoppage, or it least how it came about, was a total fluke.
Sean displays elite defense in the stand-up (3.48 significant strikes absorbed per minute) for a guy that is so talented on the feet.
If you're a Song backer, you're looking for one huge flurry that leads to a stoppage. It's possible, but I'd bet against it.
Give me O'Malley via decision.
UFC 324 PICK: O'Malley
Interested in backing this or other selections on sites like PrizePicks? Check out the Best MMA Picks & Prop Bets by comparing lines to our projections using the RotoWire Picks & Props tool.
Bantamweight
Waldo Cortes-Acosta (16-2-0) v. Derrick Lewis (29-12-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Cortes-Acosta ($9,200), Lewis ($7,000)
Vegas Odds: Cortes-Acosta (-325), Lewis (+260)
I'm not a huge Cortes-Acosta guy, and at age 34 I truly believe there's a good chance we've already seen the best he has to offer inside the Octagon. But he's put together enough good work, particularly in such a short period of time, that he's deserving of this opportunity. Waldo fought five times in 2025, going 4-1. He picked up back-to-back knockout wins over Shamil Gaziev and Ante Delija in a three-week span back in November. Both fights ended in Round 1, so Cortes-Acosta should be ready to compete for the third time in a span of just over two months.
Lewis will be 41 years of age a couple weeks after this event takes place. Yes, he's getting up there in age, but he's seemingly in the best shape we've seen him in in recent memory, and let's be real, he employs a type of style that should age fairly well. Lewis lost three straight from February 2022 to February 2023, all via stoppage, but has since rebounded with three wins in his past four, all via knockout. Lewis remains as popular as ever. He's going to continue to get main card Pay-Per-View slots and headlining positions on Fight Night cards and should have a decent amount of success as long as the UFC is reasonable regarding the level of competition it matches him up against.
Cortes-Acosta has picked up some knockouts lately as a I mentioned earlier, but I still don't consider him much of a power puncher. He's a tall (6-foot-4), long guy and typically does his best work fighting from distance. He should have an advantage over Lewis in terms of sheer volume, but outpointing "The Black Beast" over the course of three rounds is notoriously difficult. My guess is Waldo will be forced out of his comfort zone here, for better or worse.
Lewis don't land much (2.51 significant strikes per minute) and doesn't get hit much (2.49 significant strikes per minute), exactly the type of numbers you'd expect from a guy that tends to fold his opposition the second he lands one notable blow. Derrick's takedown defense has improved, but he's still a soon-to-be 41-year-old that is entirely reliant on his power to win. My first instinct is that Cortes-Acosta doesn't have the grappling chops to ground Lewis for a prolonged period of time, although he should absolutely attempt to go that route.
This seems almost certainly to end via Waldo taking a decision or Lewis winning via knockout.
Given the price point for each, this is the easiest pick on the entire card outside of massive favorites like Nurmagomedov and Gautier.
Lewis, even at his advanced age, is better than anyone Cortes-Acosta has defeated to date, and we know power is one of the last things to go. I'll roll the dice he can put forth one more standout performance.
UFC 324 PICK: Lewis
Women's Flyweight
Natalia Silva (19-5-1) v. Rose Namajunas (15-7-0)
DK Salaries: Silva ($9,400), Namajunas ($6,800)
Vegas Odds: Silva (-410), Namajunas (+320)
This was originally supposed to be Namajunas and Alexa Grasso before the latter pulled out in early December due to injury. Silva is widely considered to be a much tougher opponent, and I credit Rose for accepting the change without complaint.
Now 33 years old, Namajunas, a former two-time UFC Strawweight Champion, has been competing at flyweight since September 2023. She's 3-2 in her new digs, with wins over Miranda Maverick, Tracy Cortez, and Amanda Ribas in addition to setbacks to Manon Fiorot and Erin Blanchfield. The obvious concern is the fact the two defeats, to Fiorot and Blanchfield, came against by far the two most difficult fighters she has faced at 125 pounds. I don't expect things to get much, if any, easier against Silva.
Silva is a perfect 7-0 in the UFC and is riding a 13-fight winning streak overall. Her last loss of any kind came against UFC veteran Marina Rodriguez in December 2017 at an event called "Thunder Fight 14." That dropped Silva's professional record to 6-5-1. To say she's turned a corner since would be a massive understatement. She'll be just 29 years old in early February and this strong run appears to be entirely sustainable to my eyes.
Rose has really leaned on her wrestling since moving up to flyweight. She has landed at least one in each of her past four fights and the two she planted on Maverick, a wrestler herself, her last time out ended up being the difference in the end. At 5-foot-5, Rose is by no means huge, but she's always been one of the most deceptively strong female fighters in the spot and that has carried over to 125 pounds.
That said, the issues for her in this potential matchup are two-fold. For starters, Silva is rocking a 92 percent career takedown defense, so good luck getting her to the mat long enough to actually land significant damage.
The second problem for Rose is the discrepancy in overall striking between the two. Namajunas has improved mightily in the stand-up. It was a once a weakness early in her UFC run. She's now solid average in that area, albeit without bringing much power to the table.
Namajunas is going to have to up her output (3.6 significant strikes landed per minute) because Silva is north of five (5.04). The Brazilian also rarely gets hit 2.46 significant strikes absorbed per minute).
I don't mind taking a shot on Rose at massive underdog money and a cheap salary because she's legitimately talented, but I don't expect a strong DK performance even if she pulls the upset. I think Silva has her covered pretty much everywhere.
UFC 324 PICK: Silva
Featherweight
Arnold Allen (20-3-0) v. Jean Silva (16-3-0)
DK Salaries: Allen ($7,100), Silva ($9,100)
Vegas Odds: Allen (+225), Silva (-280)
Silva made his UFC debut a little over two years ago and began his run with the company with five straight stoppage wins (four knockouts, one submission). He was legitimately closing in on a title shot before being brutally knocked out by Diego Lopes in September. On the surface, one setback against a quality opponent doesn't seem like a huge deal, but it sure feels as if the Lopes loss cratered Silva's stock in a major way. He needs a strong effort here.
Allen has long been one of the most underrated guys on the UFC roster in any division. He lost back-to-back fights to Max Holloway and Movsar Evloev in mid-2023 and early 2024 before getting back in the win column against Giga Chikadze via unanimous decision in July. Allen has been with the company since June 2015, but he will be just 32 years of age two days before the event takes place. Part of the problem is that he hasn't fought much over the course of his career. Arnold competed just once in 2020 and 2021, twice in 2022, once in 2023, and twice in 2024. He has top-five potential if he ever competes on a regular basis over a period of multiple years.
Silva has ridiculous power and fights at a frenetic pace. He's largely a brawler, and prior to the Lopes fight, that style had worked perfectly well for him. I expect him to go right back to it here because he seems to work himself into a frezy prior to entering the octagon and I'm not sure he can compete any other way.
Allen is very much a generalist from a stylistic standpoint, but he's a talented generalist. On the surface, neither his 3.45 significant strikes landed per minute nor his 0.93 takedowns landed per 15 minutes are impressive numbers, but he seems to have the ability to reach back when needed and do what is necessary to emerge victorious. I like him, and always have.
The power edge is definitely in Silva's favor, but Allen has never been knocked out in his professional career. In fact, all three of his defeats (Evloev, Holloway, and Marcin Wrzosek back in his Cage Warrior days) were via decision.
I don't feel as good about it, but much like the Lewis pick, this is a simple value play. I could see the Lopes result simply being a one-off for Silva and him getting right back on track with a nice performance here, but Allen fights for your dollar every single time out and is never overwhelmed inside the octagon, even in his setbacks.
I'm willing to roll the dice that he finds a way to pull an upset.
UFC 324 PICK: Allen
OTHER FIGHTS
Bantamweight
Umar Nurmagomedov (19-1-0) v. Deiveson Figueiredo (25-5-1)
DK Salaries: Nurmagomedov ($9,900), Figueiredo ($6,300)
Vegas Odds: Nurmagomedov (-1450), Figueiredo (+850)
UFC 324 PICK: Nurmagomedov
Middleweight
Ateba Gautier (9-1-0) v. Andrey Pulyaev (10-3-0)
DK Salaries: Gautier ($9,700), Pulyaev ($6,500)
Vegas Odds: Gautier (-850), Pulyaev (+575)
UFC 324 PICK: Gautier
Light Heavyweight
Nikita Krylov (30-11-0) v. Modestas Bukauskas (19-6-0)
DK Salaries: Krylov ($7,800), Bukauskas ($8,400)
Vegas Odds: Krylov (+125), Bukauskas (-150)
UFC 324 PICK: Krylov
Flyweight
Alex Perez (25-10-0) v. Charles Johnson (18-7-0)
DK Salaries: Perez ($7,500), Johnson ($8,700)
Vegas Odds: Perez (+170), Johnson (-205)
UFC 324 PICK: Johnson
Lightweight
Michael Johnson (25-19-0) v. Alexander Hernandez (18-8-0)
DK Salaries: Johnson ($7,700), Hernandez ($8,500)
Vegas Odds: Johnson (+130), Hernandez (-155)
UFC 324 PICK: Hernandez
Heavyweight
Josh Hokit (7-0-0) v. Denzel Freeman (7-1-0)
DK Salaries: Hokit ($9,000), Freeman ($7,200)
Vegas Odds: Hokit (-245), Freeman (+200)
UFC 324 PICK: Hokit
Bantamweight
Ricky Turcios (13-5-0) v. Cameron Smotherman (12-6-0)
DK Salaries: Turcios ($7,600), Smotherman ($8,600)
Vegas Odds: Turcios (+155), Smotherman (-185)
UFC 324 PICK: Turcios
Welterweight
Adam Fugitt (10-5-0) v. Ty Miller (6-0-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Fugitt ($6,900), Miller ($9,300)
Vegas Odds: Fugitt (+320), Miller (-420)
UFC 324 PICK: Miller
Note: All odds accurate as of time of posting, and taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook, if available. Check out DraftKings to bet on MMA Odds and use the DraftKings promo code for a great welcome offer.
In search of a new, legal sportsbook? Get in on the action with our best sportsbook promo codes, as well as these selections for the best sports betting sites and sports betting apps.
DraftKings MMA Scoring
Note: Scoring has been updated as of early-2021! Please review the scoring changes below.
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 PTS
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 PTS
Control Time: +0.03 PTS/SECOND
Takedown (TD): +5 PTS
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 PTS
Knockdown (KD): +10 PTS
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 PTS
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 PTS
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 PTS
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 PTS
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 PTS
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 PTS
Quick Win Bonus: +25 PTS
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any Distance Strike or Clinch/Ground Strikes that are considered "Power Strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 Pts
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable amount of time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
