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Note: Time on Ice projections and picks can change frequently throughout the day due to injuries and changes to line combinations, especially power-play lines. I encourage readers to check the comments section below for any last-minute updates prior to puck drop.
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Card Overview: Not a great card tonight as a lot of our normal guys are not in action, and a lot of plays are dependent on script, but there are some paths to success. I liked Thursday's and Saturday's cards and that resulted in an 8-4 record (should have been better), but this card falls somewhere in between those cards and the first card out of the break, so I'd say be careful...unless Noah Hanifin is in-play tonight. More on that below.
BUILDING BLOCKS
Aaron Ekblad 22.75 at New Jersey Devils - 7:00 p.m. ET (MORE)
Ekblad's minutes have skyrocketed since joining the powerplay two games back. Prior to that, he was on the PK, but not the power play, and his minutes hovered around 22 in most games. Since the change, he's been 26+ in both games. Ekblad has not been a high minutes guy prior to this stretch, so I'm not sure how long this will last, but for now, his line looks to low, so I'm going to jump on it until this run ends.
Evan Bouchard 24.25 vs. Ottawa Senators - 9:00 p.m. ET (LESS)
Edmonton is really trying to limit Bouchard's minutes as it heads into the stretch run. As evidence, Bouchard played about 23.5 minutes on Saturday even though the Oilers trailed almost the entire game. The same script a month ago would have resulted in at least 28 minutes for Bouchard. The Oilers are slight favorites tonight, so hopefully they can get to the lead, but if not, there's still a chance Bouchard's minutes are lower than normal. In addition, newly acquired Connor Murphy might be in the lineup, and if that's the case, it should solidify this pick.
SCRIPT/LINE DEPENDENT
Noah Hanifin 21.5 at Buffalo Sabres - 7:00 p.m. ET (MORE)
Hanifin was a great under play on Sunday because he was trending that way prior, but we have a different situation tonight as Shea Theodore is questionable. If Theodore sits, that's 23+ minutes to absorb, and yes, his replacement will take a chunk of that, but a replacement defenseman is likely to be in the 12-14 minute range, so we're looking at about 10 minutes that need to be soaked up, likely by the top-2 lines. This is important to note, however, if Theodore plays, remove this pick; this pick is only in-play if Theodore is out.
Jason Robertson 21 at Calgary Flames - 9:00 p.m. ET (MORE)
This is a tricky one because we need a couple of things to click. First, we need Roope Hintz to stay out of the lineup. He's been out since the break, and he missed last night's game, so there's a chance he's out again. Second, we need at a minimum a competitive game. Robertson has flown over his number in two of three games since the break, but those games were somewhat close. Last night in Vancouver, it was not close, and Robertson only played 19 minutes. There are a couple of paths to victory here. The first is Hintz out of the lineup, and we get a tight game. The second is Hintz in the lineup and a trailing script. Dallas is a slight favorite tonight.
Quinn Hughes 28 vs. Tampa Bay Lightning - 9:30 p.m. ET (MORE)
Back to the well once again. It's funny, I had Hughes with fewer minutes in his first two games out of the break, only for the Wild to get into the lead at Colorado, then get blown out by the Mammoth the next night. I played Hughes under on Sunday, and of course, he went over. He's been tough to peg since the break, but I think I got a read on tonight's game. Let's start with a likely trailing script as the Wild are home dogs tonight and let's face it, they've struggled in their past two, which leads me to point two, which is, the Wild are in a rut right now and they'll be lookin to do whatever it takes to get out of it tonight, which means more minutes for Hughes. Hughes played a ton of minutes on Sunday in the first two periods, only to be throttled back in the 3rd period. Considering that resulted in a loss, I think they might just play him a ton tonight, all the way through tonight.
Lane Hutson 24 at San Jose Sharks - 10:00 p.m. ET (LESS)
Hutson is the prototypical script-dependent guy. In general, if the Canadiens play from behind, he goes over; if they play from ahead, he goes under, but lately, it looks like Montreal has been leaning towards fewer minutes for Hutson. Yes, the Canadiens have been playing from ahead a lot lately, but in those games, Hutson is barely cracking 20 minutes. The only games he's gone over in the past five have been OT games. The key here is for Montreal to get a lead at some point. It doesn't need to last all game, but if the Canadiens get an early lead, no matter what happens later in the game, that might be enough to keep Hutson under 24 minutes. For the record, they are favored to win tonight.
