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Note: Time on Ice projections and picks can change frequently throughout the day due to injuries and changes to line combinations, especially power-play lines. I encourage readers to check the comments section below for any last-minute updates prior to puck drop.
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Card Overview: Another strong card tonight, with some familiar names. As I've mentioned a few times already, there is a flow to this, and right now, I am locked in with a handful of players. I will continue to leverage those players until something changes, and make no mistake, something will change, but we ride 'em until we shouldn't. This card is not quite as strong as Tuesday, but it's still pretty good.
BUILDING BLOCKS
Aaron Ekblad 22.25 at St. Louis Blues - 8:00 p.m. ET (LESS)
Ekblad was in this column on Saturday on the "More" side, as he was trending that way in the two games prior, but after seeing the Panthers play in person, I came away thinking that something might be wrong with Ekblad. He could barely put in 40 seconds on the ice before calling for a replacement, and his number of shifts was low as well. I didn't play him the next night in Chicago because I wondered if his game on Saturday was an aberration, but again, he played just 20 minutes in Chicago. I decided to use him in my plays Tuesday, and it paid off since he clocked in at just under 20 minutes against Utah. This is one of those plays where nothing has changed on the surface, so it's a bit of a leap of faith that the coach has just chosen to take some minutes from Ekblad.
Roman Josi 26.25 at New Jersey - 7:00 p.m. ET (MORE)
The trend of Josi's minutes going up with Nicolas Hague out continued Tuesday when he put in almost 30 minutes of ice time. Sure, the game went to overtime, but Josi had passed his number with five minutes left in the game. Josi's line is a minute higher than the opening line for Tuesday's game, but it's still not high enough. As long as this one stays close, Josi should fly over this number.
Miro Heiskanen 25.75 at Vegas Golden Knights - 10:00 p.m. ET (MORE)
Heiskanen has been tough to peg over the past couple weeks as his minutes dropped for a spell, but he seems to be back to the work horse that he's been for the past couple years. In his two most recent games (both wins), Heiskanen has clocked in at over 27 minutes. Heiskanen plays more when his team is trailing, and the Stars are underdogs Thursday, so this seems like a great play as we only need to avoid a blowout.
INJURY DEPENDENT
Evan Bouchard 24.75 vs. San Jose Sharks - 10:00 p.m. ET (MORE)
Mattias Ekholm is currently listed as a game-time decision, and if he's out, it would take a blowout for Bouchard to get less than 25 minutes Thursday. Ekholm has not missed a game this season, and he's averaging almost 21 minutes per game, so if he were to exit the lineup, there would be a lot of minutes to absorb. With everyone back on defense, Bouchard has resumed his role of being the script dependent guy, but that won't be the case Thursday if Ekholm is out. If he's in, then I'm probably not playing Bouchard, as the Oilers are heavy favorites.
SCRIPT DEPENDENT
Rasmus Dahlin 25 at Toronto Maple Leafs - 7:00 p.m. ET (MORE)
Dahlin is in the same spot where he hit Tuesday, and he somehow has the same line for Thursday. I'm not sure why this number isn't moving upwards, but I'll take it. My reasoning behind Dahlin on Tuesday was that I thought he was in a cycle where he was seeing more minutes because of a coach's decision, and while he went under in two consecutive games during this stretch, those were due to some abnormal circumstances. The Sabres played from the lead the entire night Tuesday, and Dahlin still had over 26 minutes of ice time, so this pick is more of a building block than script dependent. As long as it's close, Dahlin should see more than 25 minutes.
Quinn Hughes 28.25 vs. Calgary Flames - 8:00 p.m. ET (LESS)
I've been riding this angle for over a week now, and it hasn't paid off very often, but it worked Tuesday. Not only did it work, but it worked with the wrong script. The Wild were trailing the entire game Tuesday and went through a full overtime, and Hughes still went under his number. I think the coaching staff has realized that his ice time is not sustainable. He's simply putting in too many minutes for a team that's already good. It makes sense that on Vancouver, he would need to play 29 minutes a game, but that's not the case on a team that's locked into a playoff spot. No need to burn him out before the playoffs. Anyhow, it would still be nice to see the Wild get out to a lead for once. If that happens, Hughes should play less than 28 minutes Thursday, but he could get there in a neutral script as well.
