NHL Panic Index: Which Teams Should Be Worried at the Midseason Mark?

Most NHL teams go into the campaign with a sense of optimism, but some enter with far higher expectations than others. With a little over half the 2025-26 season in the books, this is a good time to look at what squads should be worried at this point.

To do that, we created Rotowire's Panic Index, which measures preseason point over/under totals at DraftKings Sportsbook against where each team stood after 41 games. We came up with a score that ranges from meeting or exceeding expectations – for a Panic Index of 0 – to full-blown panic.

NHL Panic Index For 2025-26

These Panic Index scores are grouped into tiers:

This list is developed for RotoWire, which has information on sports betting sites and unique analysis pieces such as this one.

Teams Inducing Most Panic

The team with far and away the highest score according to our metrics was the Winnipeg Jets with a Panic Index of 68.

It's understandable why. The Jets were geared for a long playoff run this season, and maybe even a championship. But through Wednesday's action, they're 18-22-5, which places them ahead of only the Canucks (16-25-5) in the NHL and makes them a big disappointment for their NHL betting backers.

If I were Jets general manager Kevin Cheveldayoff, I'd be very worried about Connor Hellebuyck. The 32-year-old goaltender not only missed time with a knee injury, but the reigning Hart Trophy recipient has struggled since returning. Hellebuyck, a three-time Vezina Trophy winner, has a 3.01 GAA and an .882 save percentage across his past 13 outings. Winnipeg is based around the idea that Hellebuyck is a world-class goaltender. That might not be true right now, so the Jets might need to consider this season a loss.

At BetMGM Sportsbook, the Jets – last season's President's Trophy winners – had +2500 odds to win the Stanley Cup when the season started. Now the operator has Winnipeg at +20000 odds.

Vancouver, the one team behind Winnipeg in the standings, also needs to look past 2025-26. The Canucks didn't have the Jets' expectations going into this campaign, but they still had hope, as illustrated by their Panic Index of 39 (fourth on our list).

The  Canucks are a sad team. In recent years, they've said goodbye to Bo Horvat, J.T. Miller and now even Quinn Hughes. Elias Pettersson is still around, but his 13 goals and 28 points through 38 appearances are far off from his 102-point performance from 2022-23. At this point, Vancouver might need to undergo a full rebuild.

Other NHL Teams Failing To Meet Expectations

New York's Miller might be stuck with a similar fate despite leaving the Canucks. The Rangers were rough last year, finishing outside of a playoff spot with a 39-36-7 record, but it was thought that the talent was there for them to rebound.

Instead, the  Rangers are last in the Eastern Conference with 46 points (20-22-6) and they're a +1200 longshot with FanDuel Sportsbook to even make the playoffs.

The Rangers are missing starting goaltender Igor Shesterkin (lower body) and top defenseman Adam Fox (lower body), but when it's the second straight year of disappointment, it's hard to dismiss these results as the byproduct of bad injury luck. Additionally, part of the Rangers' problem has been a lack of scoring – they rank 30th in goals per game with 2.58 – and though a healthy Fox would aid with that, his absence alone is not what's sinking New York. Miller has been part of the issue, underperforming with 11 goals and 26 points through 39 appearances.

Rangers GM Chris Drury tried to aggressively retool on the fly last campaign, but ultimately, this is another team that might benefit from a full rebuild.

Some Teams High On List Still Contending

That said, not every team high on the Panic Index is necessarily doomed to that rebuilding fate.

Toronto's terrible start to the campaign, coupled with the Maple Leafs' sky-high expectations, has given them a Panic Index of 35, which is tied for the fifth highest. Still, Toronto has done far better recently, going 8-1-2 dating back to Dec. 23, and are one point out of a playoff spot. Part of the worry early in the campaign was Auston Matthews not living up to his reputation, but he has seven goals and 10 points across his past seven appearances, so it seems he's back.

Toronto has +1200 odds to win the East for customers using the Caesars Sportsbook promo code.

Edmonton is also a team with worries, but not necessarily complete panic, despite rating 39 on our Index. Goaltending is the big question mark for the two-time defending Western Conference champions, but it's one that needs more time to be answered. Perhaps Tristan Jarry is the solution; he has been hurt so we don't know either way yet.

What we do know is that Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl are still playing like elites, and as long as that's true, anything is possible. NHL Hart Trophy odds list McDavid among the top three MVP contenders, albeit a way behind leader Nathan MacKinnon of the Colorado Avalanche.

Almost any team could change its fate this season with the league being so tightly packed – witness the Buffalo Sabres, who have gone from last in the East to a playoff spot with their recent hot streak. Yet time is running out. The trade deadline is March 6, but February's three-week Olympic break means that there isn't a ton of NHL action left before that deadline.

The time for general managers to make tough calls is approaching fast.