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2026 Winter Olympics Men's Hockey: Quarterfinals Odds & Medal Predictions
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The 2025-26 National Hockey League season remains on hiatus, as the 2026 Winter Olympics in Milan Cortina roll on. We've reached the semifinals in men's hockey at Milano Santagiulia and Rho Arenas, and now it's time to pare the field down further. Soon, medals will be awarded.
Eight nations remain after the qualification round was completed Tuesday. Here are your gold medal odds (courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook):
- Canada -135
- USA +230
- Finland +1000
- Sweden +1200
- Germany +3500
- Czechia +4500
- Switzerland +4500
- Slovakia +5000
This is the first time we've seen NHL players at the Olympics since 2014 in Sochi, and I'm a bit torn. That's what made the run to the gold medal in 1980 so very special for Team USA. It topped a mostly pro team from the Soviet Union, as a bunch of college kids made names for themselves, and tremendous history, against all odds. When NHL players lead a nation to gold, it's still special, but it's not quite the same as amateur athletes. Of course, hockey players aren't the only pros, and, like everything else, the Olympics are now led by corporate sponsors and big business. Even so, it's still enjoyable to see the globe's best athletes shine, and the world come together as one.
Team Canada - Gold Medal Winner (-135)
*All odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook
Before the tournament, Canada was plus-money at +120, and that's now down slightly, and they're the chalk.
Canada routed Czechia 5-0 to open Group A play last Thursday before topping Switzerland 5-1 on Friday. Canada enters the quarterfinals on a high note after defeating France 10-2 in Sunday's game, and Tom Wilson gave Pierre Crinon a beatdown after a hard hit by the Frenchman on Nathan MacKinnon. It isn't often you see a player ejected from an Olympic game, but it isn't often a player like Wilson comes along, either.
In the quarterfinals, it's a rematch with Czechia. Jordan Binnington stopped all 26 shots he faced in the first meeting, while five different scorers, including emerging superstar Macklin Celebrini, lit the lamp. Connor McDavid also had three assists, while Sidney Crosby and Thomas Harley provided two apples against the Czechs.
The offense for Canada has been all-worldly, and I still stick by the fact I don't like Binnington, Darcy Kuemper and Logan Thompson in goal as much as Connor Hellebuyck and Jake Oettinger for Team USA, although Jeremy Swayman could probably be left in Milan.
Look for Canada to make it to the gold medal game, at a minimum, if not win it all. Nothing appears to have changed since the beginning of the tournament, and, if anything, Canada looks slightly stronger than first anticipated.
Don't make any bets on your favorite sports betting apps without first consulting the latest NHL odds.
Team USA - Gold Medal Winner (+230)
Prior to the tournament, the United States were installed as the favorites, but they find themselves as slight underdogs to their neighbors from the north.
Team USA wrapped up its preliminary round matchups in Group C with a dominant 5-1 win over Germany, and Matthew Tkachuk added insult to injury with a viral chirp of Leon Draisaitl. When he is on your team, you like it, but when he isn't, he can certainly be a pest.
Against Germany, Zach Werenski notched his first goal of the tournament, while captain Auston Matthews had a power-play goal and even-strength goal, giving him three goals and five points through three games on Italian ice. The ice is in Italy, not that delicious lemon ice treat.
Anyway, Brock Faber also lit the lamp against Germany, and Tage Thompson also scored. Quinn Hughes and the aforementioned Tkachuk had their fourth assists apiece on the Matthews power-play goal. Tkachuk was back with a helper later in the game, and he leads the team with five assists.
The United States might not be quite as deep as Canada on offense, and they certainly don't have the hockey royalty like Sidney Crosby, Connor McDavid, etc. However, Team USA is certainly not devoid of talent, either, and I still like the team's chances of gold with sound defense and a touch better goaltending, although, again, putting Swayman in net would seem to hinder the United States' chances.
Don't make any bets on your favorite sports betting apps without first consulting the latest NHL odds.
MVP - 2026 Men's Ice Hockey - Auston Matthews (+1400)
Hear me out. McDavid is the odds-on favorite (-115) heading into the semifinal round, but Matthews has managed three goals and five points in the first three games, and The Big Cactus is playing with a ton of confidence. Additionally, these aren't the NHL playoffs, so that's a good thing as well.
If Team USA is somehow able to overtake Canada and take home gold, Matthews will certainly be front and center.
On a side note, it's interesting that Finland's Juuse Saros is listed at +1600. The Finns are a dark horse to not only medal, but perhaps upset the apple cart if Canada or Team USA should stumble. However, if you're looking for a long-shot play, Matthews is a much better play at similar odds.
Macklin Celebrini - Tournament O/U Points - Under 9.5 (-166)
Most "real" fans are more than familiar with Celebrini's game, but there are a lot of casual fans tuning in and becoming aware of how special he is.
Through three games, Celebrini has scored four goals with six points and a plus-6 rating. He gets a crack at Czechia in the quarterfinals, and he scored against them in the first matchup.
However, Celebrini and Canada won't have the luxury of lopsided matchups France or Switzerland to prop up those gaudy offensive numbers. Can Celebrini average north of a point per game in the final three games, should Canada make it to the medal matches? Maybe. But, there is enough star power where he won't be needed to. As the intensity of the matches picks up, the scores drop significantly, and it's highly unlikely he makes it to double digits for points in this tournament.
