Weekly Fantasy Golf Preview: The Genesis Invitational

This article is part of our Weekly Fantasy Golf Preview series.

The Genesis Invitational

Riviera Country Club
Pacific Palisades, CA

After a year away due to the damage caused from the wildfires, the PGA Tour heads back to Riviera CC for another edition of The Genesis Invitational.  

There's no debate that Scottie Scheffler is the best golfer in the world and after these past two weeks, there's no debate that he's the best golfer we've seen since peak Tiger Woods? How do we know this? Well, for the second consecutive week, Scheffler opened with a poor round, and had everyone wondering what was wrong with him? Two weeks in a row? Never mind that he fought his way back into contention both times, but a bad opening round? Something has to be going on, right? Okay, so maybe not everyone was saying that, but there was definitely a feeling of, this is weird, how is this possible?

For any other player on the PGA Tour, it's not even a blip on the radar when they open with a poor round, after all, it's golf. It's the most difficult sport to stay on top of week after week, it's just impossible to perfect, so, from time to time, even the best golfers in the world are going to play poorly one round, or miss a cut one week, or heck, maybe even miss a couple cuts in a row. With Scheffler though, the bar has been raised so high that even a poor stretch, albeit two rounds, is going to grab attention.

With that in mind, what exactly is going on? I'm only partially joking here. Yes, he's allowed to resemble a human golfer and have some rough patches, but it is kind of weird that this guy, who has resembled more machine than man for the past few years, has struggled out of the gate in consecutive weeks. I'm certain that he's not messing around in these opening rounds, only to get behind and challenge himself to win with a deficit, but what exactly has been the issue the past two weeks?

While he's not trying to get behind early in these events, there certainly could be some focus issues. I can't point to anything specific, but it's very strange that the best golfer in the world, by a mile, can't figure things out on two consecutive Thursdays, only to play out of his mind Friday-Sunday. Whatever the case, I have a feeling that he'll get out of the gate a little better this week than the past two weeks.

As for the winner last week, Collin Morikawa, it's been a long road back. It will be interesting to see if this win gets him back into the spot where he was winning majors or if this is just a one-off. I'm not quite ready to put him back in the mix for the majors, but another good showing could change that.

And as for this week, we're back at a great venue, Riviera, so don't focus on the last year's results. Scoring will look nothing like it was at Pebble Beach, which for me, is welcomed. 

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LAST YEAR

Ludvig Aberg shot a final round 66 on his way to a one-stroke victory over Maverick McNealy.

FAVORITES

All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook as of 6:00 PM ET Tuesday.

Scottie Scheffler (3-1) 

Here's the conundrum with Scheffler now, if you think he'll win, do you take the short pre-tournament odds or do you wait for a slow start and then jump on the higher odds? His game is just fine, heck six of his past eight rounds have been great, but it's just those two rounds that have ruined his chances to win. Personally, I think he's getting frustrated with the slow starts and he'll make a statement early this week, so if you're hoping for longer odds than 3-1, you might be out of luck. Though he's yet to win this event, his track record here is pretty solid, with nothing worse than a T20 in his past five tries here.  

Rory McIlroy (11-1)

Unlike Scheffler, McIlroy started well at Pebble Beach, but it was Saturday's round that knocked him out of contention. He rebounded with a solid 64 on Sunday, so it looks like his form is where it needs to be entering the week. Like Scheffler, McIlroy has yet to win this event, but also has a strong track record here. McIlroy has missed the cut just once in nine tries (again this week, this event hasn't always been a Signature Event, it once boasted a full field), and he's notched three top-10s, including a pair of top-5s. He's finished no worse than T29 in his past four tries here.

Tommy Fleetwood (20-1)

I mentioned this past week that it looks like Fleetwood if going to be the third wheel this year when it comes to who'll be on top of the odds chart. Unlike the first two spots however, this one can change on a weekly basis, but for now, Fleetwood has a fairly strong grip on that spot, especially after his T4 this past week at Pebble, where previously he'd had little success. Fleetwood's track record at Riviera is much better than Pebble, so it makes sense that his odds are a little better this week. Fleetwood is a perfect 5-for-5 in cuts made at this event and he has two top-10s to boot. His best finish at this event came a year ago when he finished T5, but that was at Torrey Pines.

Visit our golf betting section for the latest PGA odds and finishing props from multiple sportsbooks.

THE NEXT TIER

Hideki Matsuyama (22-1)           

It would have been easy to let the disappointment of the lost opportunity at the WM the previous week carry over into this past week at Pebble, but instead, Matsuyama rebounded nicely with a T8. Perhaps more impressively, Matsuyama started well out of the gate, showing no signs of the trouble he encountered in the final round at the WM. Now, another week away from that disastrous ending at the WM, Matsuyama will look to move even further forward at a spot where he's had a lot of success. Matsuyama won this event in 2024 and has four top-10s in 11 starts.

Patrick Cantlay (27-1)

As someone who leans heavily into course history, I simply can't ignore Cantlay this week. He's yet to win this event, but he's finished in the top 5 here in his past three starts. Cantlay has played this event 10 times and missed the cut just twice. Those two MCs happened to be his first two starts here as well, so he's entering this week on a streak of eight consecutive cuts made. His form hasn't been great this season, but he did finish strong at Pebble, so there's reason to believe he's got enough to win this week.

Sam Burns (33-1)

What a difference a week makes. Burns was at 70-1 entering this past week at Pebble, and a week later his odds are cut in half. That's what happens when you contend on a Sunday the week prior. Burns doesn't quite get the respect from the odds makers that others at this level do, but as he contends more at the bigger events, the odds will start to drop. As for this week, his track record at this event is a bit of a mixed bag, with three MCs in seven starts, but he does have two top-10s, including a solo third in 2021.  

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LONG SHOTS

Justin Rose (40-1)         

I'm putting Rose on the list this week because I'm testing a theory. Soon after I picked Rose as my OAD pick this past week, I realized that he's not a guy you want to use when he's expected to play well. It seems like he underperforms in those situations more often than not. However, when no one is looking his way, that's when he strikes. With that in mind, I'm going to see if that holds true this week as after last week's performance, he's pretty much off the radar. His track record here isn't spectacular, but he does have a lot of experience at Riviera, having played this event 14 times, 11 times on the weekend.

Akshay Bhatia (50-1)    

Bhatia didn't handle the pressure of the lead all that well this past week at Pebble, but that experience should only help him moving forward. Bhatia has had plenty of success over the past couple years and he knows how to win on the PGA Tour, but being out front in a Signature Event, with some big names chasing is a tough task for anyone that hasn't been there before. Bhatia has played very well in his past two starts and there's no reason to think that will change this week. Bhatia finished T9 in his only previous start at this event, again, that was at Torrey Pines, but his form should give him a chance to contend this week. week.

ONE-AND-DONE LEAGUES

Highly-Chosen Pick: Patrick Cantlay – Everyone is in play this week, even Scheffler, but I think the OAD players are going to lock in on Cantlay's track record here and make him perhaps the most popular pick this week. Not only does he have the track record here, but his play this past week was pretty solid, outside of one poor round of course. I don't think people will be on McIlroy this week and most will hold off on using Scheffler, so outside of Fleetwood, we're going to see a lot of second-tier golfers in play this week.    

Moderately-Chosen Pick: Tommy Fleetwood – Speaking of Fleetwood, I think OAD players aren't quite sure what to make of him at this point. Is he a major pick? He's certainly in the mix and he does often save his best for the majors, but he's coming off a good showing this past week in a spot where he wasn't previously successful, so does that make him a solid play this week? I think it does and remember, since this is a Signature Event, there's no need to worry about burning him too early. As I've said, the PGA Tour players have a better chance of winning a signature than a major because there are no LIV players involved. Not that there's many to worry about, but adding Bryson DeChambeau and Jon Rahm to the mix obviously makes it harder to win.   

Lightly-Chosen Pick: Akshay Bhatia – If form were the only consideration, Bhatia would be a popular play, but he is not quite at the level where you definitely use him at a Signature Eventt, so there will likely be some hesitation amongOAD players. Outside of worrying if he's established enough to use him here, there's really nothing not to like about him this week. He's got the form and although his experience here is limited, his form should be enough to at least contend.          

Buyer Beware: Russell Henley – This one scares me a little because Henley has been so consistent since this past summer (11 consecutive top-20s), but it's hard to ignore his track record at Riviera. Henley has played this event 10 times and he's cracked the top-20 just once. It's a strange stat because you'd think with only one top-20, he'd have a bunch of MCs, but that's not the case. Henley has only missed the cut here three times in 10 starts, but for some reason he can't get anything done on the weekend.

My Pick: Tommy Fleetwood – It's early in the season, but this feels like a pivotal week on the schedule. I say that because I'm guessing that a lot of OAD players will be on Cantlay this week and while I like that play as well, I think Fleetwood is playing with more confidence right now and therefore he's the bigger threat to win this week. Cantlay is undoubtedly the safest play this week, heck he's finished outside the top-20 just once in his past eight starts here, but again, I'm looking at the higher upside this week and I think with the way Fleetwood played this past week, he's the pick. I should note that I'm fully aware that I've been taking the "safe" play almost every week up to this point, so perhaps I'm pivoting off the safe play just to mix it up. I hope that's not the case, but sometimes we aren't consciously aware of why we like certain plays more than others when the numbers are not enough to break the tie. 

Previous Results

View the PGA earnings report to find total winnings and winnings per entry via our fantasy golf stats pages.

FANDUEL PICKS

Upper Range: Tommy Fleetwood ($11,400)
Middle Range: Sam Burns ($10,600)
Lower Range: Nico Echavarria ($7,100)

SURVIVOR LEAGUES

My Pick: Patrick Cantlay – We do have a cut this week, albeit a small one. While you could get cute and try to get away with a lesser player since they are only cutting a dozen players, I think it's best to play it safe and stick with a guy that hasn't missed a cut here in eight years. Cantlay seems like a lock for a top-10, so making the cut this week should not be an issue at all.   

Previous Results