This article is part of our Golf Picks series.
WM Phoenix Open Betting Preview
The PGA Tour heads to Arizona for this week's WM Phoenix Open at TPC Scottsdale. It's commonly referred to as 'The Greatest Show on Grass' due to the party atmosphere that makes it the most attended event in golf. Once again, we have a strong field for a non-signature event that includes 11 of the top-20 players in the OWGR, headlined by World No. 1 and tournament favorite Scottie Scheffler at +225. Last year, long shot Thomas Detry (90-1) defeated Daniel Berger and Michael Kim by seven shots for his first Tour victory.
All odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of 12:30 PM ET Wednesday
Course Overview
Par 71, 7,261 yards
These are the average rankings of the WM Phoenix Open champions across the last five years:
- SG: Off-the-Tee: 17.4
- SG: Approach: 13.6
- SG: Around-the-Green: 21.0
- SG: Putting: 7.2
- SG: Tee-to-Green: 5.0
- Driving Distance: 21.2
- Driving Accuracy: 26.2
TPC Scottsdale is a venue I look forward to mainly because it sets up for an exciting finish. The closing six holes include a pair of reachable in two par-5s, the iconic stadium par-3 16th hole and the driveable par-4 17th hole with water in play. It's not an easy course to hold a lead on as it's not uncommon for someone to play this stretch in four-under and storm from behind. The winner has reached 20-under in back-to-back years, which are the lowest scores since 2013. That's a bit deceiving, however, as Detry (who left for LIV and isn't in the field) won by seven last year.
Interestingly, prior to last year, we witnessed a playoff in six of the last nine events here! Overall, there are various ways you can get yourself in trouble despite the fact that there is minimal rough. The desert surrounds fairways which can create uncomfortable lies on approach shots, and then there's also water in play on five of the final eight holes. We can see from the stats above that tee to green stands out as a key metric as this course will expose weaknesses and suits well-rounded golfers. I lean towards the longer hitters that can take advantage of the par-5s, and there are also four par-4s over 470 yards. I'll also be targeting those that hit their irons well from 150-200 yards as we'll see a lot of approach shots in that range.
Course History
The following golfers have the lowest scoring average at TPC Scottsdale since 2021:
- Brooks Koepka: 66.8
- Scottie Scheffler: 67.1
- Xander Schauffele: 67.4
- Jordan Spieth: 68.1
- Nick Taylor: 68.3
Although Koepka has been on LIV the last three years, his results in 2021 and 2022 have him atop the list, as he followed up his win five years ago with a T3 the year after. His maiden win on Tour came here in 2015 as well. Koepka had a modest return last week finishing T56, but he notably ranked 11th in SG: Tee-to-Green at Torrey Pines South. The oddsmakers are giving him plenty of respect as the seventh choice on the board at 31-1. Another player that's shown good form here is Spieth (55-1), who has a whopping six top-10s across nine appearances but is still searching for his first win at the event. That includes a top-5 last year in which he was second in SG: Approach. Speith has taken the last two weeks off following a top-25 in Hawaii.
Current Form
These five golfers, on a per-round basis, have gained the most strokes from tee to green across their last 20 rounds:
- Scottie Scheffler: 2.87
- Si Woo Kim: 2.46
- Pierceson Coody: 1.75
- Cameron Young: 1.64
- J.J. Spaun: 1.55
What can be said about Scheffler that hasn't already been said? He's making it look like a video game at this point with 17 consecutive top-10 finishes and seven victories across his last 14 starts. Just like Koepka, his first Tour victory came at this event (in 2022), which he successfully defended the following year. Meanwhile, Young has been in excellent form since August, posting a top-25 in six straight events including four top-10s. He's made the cut in all four of his trips to Phoenix, notably posting back-to-back top-15s. Young had a rare down week on the greens at Torrey Pines, but has become much more reliable in that regard over the last year, and he comes in as the third betting choice at 24-1.
WM Phoenix Open Bets: Outright Picks
Xander Schauffele (+1850)
A rib injury that sidelined Schauffele for two months last year led to him not having his best form and missing the Tour Championship. But he had a pair of top-10s late in the summer and won in Japan in October. Now he returns to a place where he hasn't finished worse than T17 across six appearances. Note the without Scheffler market is worth consideration, where Schauffele is +1450.
Rickie Fowler (+3900)
It seems like Fowler is a bit under the radar despite posting top-10s in both playoff events he qualified for, and he opened the year with a top-20 at the AMEX. He's a past champion here with a couple of runner-up finishes to boot.
J.T. Poston (+7200)
Poston has a solid track record at TPC Scottsdale with three top-25s since 2021 and notably ranked in the top-10 in SG: Tee-to-Green at the event last year. He closed last year with a top-10 in Sea Island and ranked second in approach at Pete Dye's Stadium Course in his only start this year.
WM Phoenix Open Bets: Top-10 Wagers
Garrick Higgo (+490)
Higgo didn't show much in his first start of the year at Torrey Pines last week, but he's always struggled there. Previously, he closed 2025 with top-10s in the final four fall events. Higgo had a T21 in his debut here in 2022 and has a great combination of length and putting to form a high ceiling.
Mac Meissner (+700)
I think Meissner as an underrated ball striker. He ranked in the top-100 in distance and accuracy last season and was 37th in SG: Approach. Entering his third season on Tour, he's made the cut in all three events this year to extend his streak to 10.
Gary Woodland (+1025)
This is an event Woodland circles on his calendar, as he won here in 2018 and has two other top-10s. He's coming off a T21 last year – one of eight top-25s in 2025. Woodland has struggled around the green but his driving and long iron play is still well above the Tour average.
WM Phoenix Open Bets: Head-to-Head Matchups
Wyndham Clark (+100) over Daniel Berger
I'm surprised to see Berger as a heavy favorite in this matchup considering that Clark has made both of his cuts this year and three straight at the event including two top-20s. He's the longer driver of the two with a much better short game. Berger did finish T2 here last year so there is some risk involved, but he's also missed the cut in three of the last six years.
Sam Stevens (-110) over Matt McCarty
Stevens continues to trend in a positive direction. He's finished no worse than T31 across his last four events including a pair of top-10s. That includes ranking in the top-10 in SG: Off-the-Tee in back-to-back starts. Stevens has also made the cut in each of his appearances at TPC Scottsdale. McCarty on the other hand missed the cut by five shots last year and his lack of distance will make it difficult for him to take advantage of the par-5s.
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