This article is part of our ADP Analysis series.
In July, we analyzed draft dilemmas among running back and wide receiver tiers for 2025 fantasy football drafts. Now that we're at crunch time, let's pit specific running backs and wide receivers against each other to see how they compare.
There are some excellent options toward the end of the first round. But who should you draft: Nico Collins or Derrick Henry? Each brings a different blend of upside, risk and context. Making the right call is a high-leverage fantasy decision, and one we practice for on the mock draft simulator.
By using that tool and others you get in the fantasy football draft kit at RotoWire, you'll be in great shape come draft day.
Nico Collins, Houston Texans (ADP: 13)
Nico Collins opened 2024 red-hot, averaging 122 receiving yards and 7.5 catches per game through Week 4. A hamstring injury derailed his midseason, but he bounced back in the playoffs with two 100-yard performances.
Injuries remain the big concern. Collins has yet to play a full season and has missed 17 games in four years. While his per-game numbers are elite, 85 yards and 0.56 touchdowns since 2023, the inability to stay on the field drags down his fantasy reliability.
Even with added target competition in Houston, Collins remains the top perimeter weapon for C.J. Stroud. If he finally stays healthy, he could easily smash ADP.
The bottom line: Collins brings top-4 WR per-game upside but carries significant durability concerns. At ADP 13, he's a boom-or-(injury) bust selection who best fits aggressive team builds.
Stay informed with fantasy football news and track usage roles with the NFL depth charts.
Derrick Henry, Baltimore Ravens (ADP: 8)
Derrick Henry showed no signs of slowing in 2024, rushing for 1,921 yards and 16 touchdowns on 325 carries. It was the second-best season of his career. He averaged a career-high 5.9 yards per carry, posted an 85th percentile broken tackle rate and remained an ironman with 15 or more games in eight of nine seasons.
Baltimore unlocked even more value late in the year by adding shotgun and fullback wrinkles to its ground game. In his final five games, including the playoffs, Henry averaged 143 rushing yards and 1.2 touchdowns.
He won't give you much in the passing game. He caught just 19 passes last year. But he's a rare RB with a stable role and elite floor. Despite being 31, there's been no sign of regression.
The bottom line: Henry combines elite durability with week-winning upside. If you want safety and production, Henry is a good option.
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