This article is part of our ADP Analysis series.
As the top-tier running backs come off the board in 2025 fantasy drafts, drafters are faced with a critical decision with the tiers that follow. We broke down the third tier in July; however, with the final waves of drafts taking place and big decisions looming, we wanted to take another look at these critical player vs. player battles.
These backs are coming off the board as RB8 through RB10 in most drafts, including on our mock draft simulator, and each offers a unique mix of upside, risk and usage. Let's dig into team context, injury history and efficiency metrics to help you pick the right back for your build.
Who wins the 2025 fantasy football ADP battle and who should you draft: Josh Jacobs or Bucky Irving?
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Bucky Irving, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (RB9)
Bucky Irving exploded late in 2024, averaging 19 carries and more than 13.3 PPR points in each of his final eight full games. He racked up 1,132 rushing yards and showed elite efficiency across the board, ranking 88th percentile in broken tackles, 96th percentile in yards after contact and 93rd percentile in yards after the catch after taking over receiving-back duty midseason.
His breakout was aided by ideal conditions — a favorable offensive scheme and an uptick in opportunity after Rachaad White faded. With offensive coordinator Liam Coen no longer in Tampa Bay, it's possible the Buccaneers' offense takes a step back. A regression in scheme or usage could limit Irving's ability to live up to his RB9 NFL fantasy ADP.
Still, if Irving's second-half surge was a true reflection of his talent, he could make this ADP look like a steal. His all-around skill set and potential three-down role give him plenty of paths to smash expectations.
The bottom line: Irving is worth drafting at RB9 if you believe his breakout was real. But with an uncertain scheme or guaranteed volume, he's more volatile than his ADP suggests.
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Josh Jacobs, Green Bay Packers (RB8)
Josh Jacobs didn't reach his 2022 peak last season but still produced 1,671 scrimmage yards and 16 total touchdowns — his second-best fantasy season to date. He showed strong durability and efficiency, ranking in the 83rd percentile in broken tackles and 80th percentile in yards after contact.
Green Bay leaned on Jacobs heavily down the stretch. From Week 7 on, he posted 20 or more PPR points in eight of his final 11 games. His receiving work fluctuated, with seven games with less than two catches and six with four or more. Even with inconsistent volume, he topped 38 receiving yards four times late in the season.
After QB Jordan Love looked more like a game manager than a playmaker, the Packers appear committed to a power-run identity. Jacobs proved that he is up to the task. With two 17-game seasons in the last three years, Jacobs is also one of the more durable RBs on the board.
The bottom line: Jacobs is the safest RB1 in this tier. He offers a high floor, red-zone usage and proven volume. At RB8, he's a rock-solid option for drafters who want reliability.
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Final Thoughts on ADP Fantasy Football RB Values
Each back has legitimate RB1 potential, but the risk profiles vary. Bucky Irving is the rising star with elite metrics and explosive upside, but coaching turnover could create volatility. Josh Jacobs may not be flashy, but he checks every box for workload, scoring and consistency.
- Safest pick at cost: Josh Jacobs
- Most upside: Look to Jonathan Taylor if he's still on the board
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