Texans vs. Patriots Picks and Odds for NFL Divisional Round

This article is part of our NFL Picks series.

NFL Playoff Picks: Texans vs. Patriots Odds, Picks, and Predictions for NFL Divisional Round

Cap off the NFL Sunday action with our NFL picks for Divisional Round Playoff weekend. The Texans (13-5) travel to Foxboro to take on the Patriots (15-3) in an AFC Divisional Round matchup on Sunday afternoon. The Texans are coming off a road win against the Pittsburgh Steelers, 30-6, while the Patriots beat the Los Angeles Chargers at home, 16-3.

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Houston Texans vs. New England Patriots Betting Odds

• Texans +3.5 (Fanatics -120), Patriots -3 (Caesars Sportsbook -113)  
• Texans ML (Caesars +151), Patriots ML (BetMGM, DraftKings -175)
• Total Over 40.5 (BetMGM, Fanatics -110), Under 41 (BetRivers -115) 
• Texans total points: Over 18.5 (Caesars -115), Under 19.5 (BetRivers -117)
• Patriots total points: Over 21.5 (DraftKings -110), Under 22.5 (DraftKings -115) 
• First-half spread: Texans +2.5 (Bet365 -105), Patriots -1.5 (BetRivers -107)            
• First-half total: Over 19.5 (DraftKings -125), Under 20.5 (Caesars -110)
• First-half team total: 
  • Texans Over/Under 9.5 (BetRivers) (-112/-112) 
  • Patriots Over/Under 10.5 (BetRivers) (+110/-137)      
• Weather: 34 degrees, 5 mph wind, 25 percent chance of snow

LINE MOVEMENT

The Patriots opened as 3-point home favorites, and it moved to -2.5 immediately, so early money was coming in on Houston. It immediately went back to -3, as there was buyback on the Patriots. The line then crossed over the key number of 3, and went to -3.5, in favor of the Patriots. This is a significant line move to be aware of.

The total is the lowest on the board for the four games this weekend, as it opened at 41.5, and has been bet down to as low as 40.5. The key number is 41 for this total to crossover, because you have 21-20, 24-17. 27-14, and 28-13, etc.  

BETTING SPLITS

The majority of the bets are on the Texans (64 percent), and the handle is 63 percent on the Texans' side, which is indicative of where the SHARP money is coming from. 

The total has 54 percent of bets on the Over, but the money is 52 percent on the Under.  The moneyline is on the Patriots at 67 percent of the bets, but 73 percent of the money which is also another indication that sharp money is on the Texans. 

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Key Injuries

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Texans vs. Patriots Betting Picks 

BETTING TRENDS

• Houston is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games.
• The total has gone UNDER in 13 of Houston's last 19 games.
• Houston is 10-0 SU in its last 10 games.
• Houston is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games against New England.
• New England is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games.
• The total has gone OVER in 5 of New England's last 6 games.
• New England is 14-1 SU in its last 15 games.
• The total has gone OVER in 11 of New England's last 15 games against Houston.

NFL Team Rankings

Texans vs. Patriots Best Bets

• Texans UNDER 18.5 points for 1 unit (DraftKings -105)
• Patriots UNDER 22.5 points for 1 unit (DraftKings -115)
• Texans/Patriots 1H UNDER 20.0 points for 0.5 unit (Caesars Sportsbook -110)
• Texans +3.5 for 0.5 unit (ESPN Bet -120)

Texans vs. Patriots Prediction

I know the public is all on the Under in this game, and the only way I can see it going Over is if there are defensive or special teams' touchdowns. I will lean on this being a low-scoring game between both defenses, along with the key injury of Nico Collins on the Texans' side. I cannot lay more than a field goal in this spot. 

Patriots 19, Texans 16