This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
Patriots vs. Ravens: NFL Odds, Picks and Predictions
The Patriots aim to bounce back from a rare loss in Week 15 and maintain control of the AFC East in a tricky road matchup against an incentivized Ravens squad. We dive into best bets and predictions for the key late-season battle.
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Patriots vs. Ravens NFL Odds
*Best lines at time of writing listed
- Moneyline: Patriots +142 (DraftKings) / Ravens -150 (BetMGM)
- Point spread: Patriots +3 (FanDuel) / Ravens -3 (FanDuel)
- Totals: Over 48.5 points (FanDuel) / Under 48.5 points (DraftKings)
The spread for this game has had an interesting trajectory over the last week-plus. Baltimore was favored even before Week 15 play, with a -2.5 figure. That number had narrowed to 1.5 but then rose back to as high as -3 heading into the weekend.
The total has also done some bouncing around, but ultimately, it's back where it started, namely, 48.5 points. That was the figure before the Week 15 slate kicked off, and after dipping to 47.5, it climbed as high as 49.5 before coming back down a point heading into the weekend.
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Patriots vs. Ravens NFL Picks
The Patriots were the way to yet another win in Week 15 with a 21-0 lead before Josh Allen took matters into his own hands and eventually led Buffalo to a 35-31 victory. The second half exposed some cracks in New England's typically elite defense, including their ability to slow down the run.
The Pats had been shutting down running backs most of the season, but without standout linebacker Robert Spillane (ankle), New England saw James Cook rumble for 107 yards on 22 carries. Spillane is also ruled out for this primetime matchup, and that could certainly spell trouble against a team like Baltimore.
Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry haven't enjoyed quite the same level of success as last season, but they're still averaging 5.5 and 4.8 yards per carry, respectively. Despite Baltimore's inconsistency, Henry has continued to produce when given the opportunity, averaging 89.8 rushing yards per contest over his last nine games.
The Pats are allowing 133.0 rushing yards per game over the last three contests. The Ravens, who can't afford to lose another game, are likely to focus on exploiting that vulnerability as much as possible while mixing in some selective throws downfield versus New England's talented secondary, which has allowed 57.1 additional passing yards per game on the road (237.7) than at home (180.6).
Ultimately, I wouldn't touch the spread here because of how closely matched the teams are, but I'm willing to bank on a Ravens win due to their ability to run the ball effectively enough to keep Lamar productive when dropping back. Then, with the Pats a bit more likely to give up some production on the ground, an SGP that utilizes FanDuel's Alt. Spread feature and combines with a solid night for Henry is also in play.
Patriots vs. Ravens NFL Bets:
- Ravens moneyline (-150 on BetMGM Sportsbook)
- Ravens Alt. Spread +3.5 and Derrick Henry 70+ rushing yards (-114 on FanDuel Sportsbook)
Patriots vs. Ravens NFL Prediction
Ravens 24, Patriots 20
The Pats are a legitimate contender and Vrabel and his staff have undoubtedly done wonders, but this is a tricky spot for a young quarterback and young team in general. Spillane's absence will loom very large, as it will allow Baltimore to operate in its preferred way of a run-heavy attack. Lamar's experience compared to that of Maye should also play a key role as the Ravens squeeze out a tight win.
