This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
Why the Chargers Are a Smart Under Bet in 2025
Betting the under on the Chargers' win total (9.5, +100 at Caesars Sportsbook) is a sharp play in NFL win totals 2025, even if it feels counterintuitive at first. After all, Jim Harbaugh's arrival brought immediate success to Los Angeles in 2024, as the team rattled off 11 wins and returned to the playoffs. Harbaugh's history with San Francisco showed us he can elevate a roster quickly.
But don't let surface results mislead you-this is one of the more compelling under bets among the NFL win totals 2025.
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2025 Chargers Schedule: A Tougher Road Ahead
In 2024, the Chargers consistently faced teams starting backup or rookie quarterbacks. While the defense appeared dominant, it was often a result of overwhelmed opponents rather than overwhelming talent. In games against legitimate quarterbacks, the defense frequently failed to hold up.
This year's schedule features fewer of those "gimme" matchups. Even though a few softer games remain, the overall slate includes a significantly tougher lineup of signal-callers. That alone casts doubt on Los Angeles matching last year's win total.
Chargers Defense Preview
The Chargers are well-coached on defense, but they lack the personnel to stop elite NFL offenses. The loss of Joey Bosa and the continued aging of Khalil Mack will likely cause the pass rush to be strong. That will routinely put the cornerbacks at a disadvantage. Against top-tier QBs, that weakness could become glaring.
Chargers Offense Preview
Los Angeles revamped its rushing attack by drafting Omarion Hampton and adding Najee Harris*. This power run identity clearly aligns with Harbaugh's philosophy. The Chargers also have the advantage of Justin Herbert, who remains one of the most physically gifted quarterbacks in the league.
That said, there are serious concerns at receiver. Ladd McConkey looks like the top target, but beyond him, the pass-catching group lacks proven difference-makers. If the team falls behind in games and is forced to abandon the run, this thin receiver corps may be exposed.
*still awaiting further reporting here.
Verdict: Chargers Are a Prime Regression Candidate
Between a harder schedule, a defense unlikely to dominate quality opponents, and pass-catching limitations, betting the under on 9.5 wins feels justified. While Harbaugh's presence keeps the team competitive, reaching double-digit wins looks like a stretch.
Prediction: 8 or 9 wins. Bet: Under 9.5 wins (+100 at Caesars Sportsbook).
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