NFL Week 18 Odds Tracker: Best Odds and Line Movement

This article is part of our NFL Picks series.

NFL Odds Tracker: NFL Week 18 Odds, Over/Unders and Spreads

The goal of this article is to look at the key line moves for the week and what they mean in terms of betting. Key numbers in the NFL to watch for are 3, 7, 6, 14, and 10. When a line crosses through one of these, it warrants significant attention. 

On the totals side, the key numbers are 41, 43, 37, 44, 51, 33, 47.  

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NFL Week 18 Odds 

Week 18 NFL Lines (odds via BetMGM)

*home team in bold

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NFL Week 18 Odds Observations

• The highest spread is Titans at Jaguars -12.5
• The lowest spread is Seahawks -1.5 at 49ers
• 8 games have a line of 7.0 points or greater
• The highest total game is Giants/Cowboys 52.5; the lowest total game is Packers/Vikings 36.5
• There are 4 home underdogs in Week 18
• There is a heavy concentration of totals between 36.5-41.5 points
• The highest team totals are Jaguars, Patriots, Bengals, Cowboys, Rams
• The lowest team totals are Chargers, Colts, Jets, Packers, Raiders

NFL Week 18 Line Movement

A quarterback is the only position that can significantly move an NFL point spread, and a top-tier QB can be worth up to seven or more points. For all other positions, the impact is minimal and usually less than a single point, unless multiple players on the same unit are injured. When a unit has multiple starters out, it is often overlooked in the handicapping world. OL, DL, secondary, and WR are the units that are impacted the most. 

Week 18 is a completely different animal as opening lines were just posted so there is no referencing numbers from May. Everything in Week 18 is about motivation, but as the week goes on INJURIES and WEATHER will impact line movement so keep an eye on those. 

New York Jets at Buffalo Bills

The line opened Bills -12.5 on Dec. 28, and immediately dropped to -11.5. On Dec. 29 at 9 a.m., the line started to drop again 1.5 points down to Bills -10.0. It then proceeded to get hammered by Jets backers, and saw it go to -9.5, -8.5, -7.5, and then finally -7.0 in the evening. 

The amount of players the Bills have listed on the injury report is in the double digits which includes Josh Allen. There is a strong likelihood they will rest as many starters as possible which accounts for the 5.5 line move in favor of the Jets. 

The total opened 42.0 and has also seen a 5.5 adjustment down on the news of the Bills most likely resting a significant number of players. The total is now at 37.5 which puts the game at an implied total of Bills 22-15. 

Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles 

Much like the Bills/Jets game, we saw significantly line movement as word got out that the Eagles were going to rest their starters. 

This line opened as Eagles -7.5 on Dec. 28, and even saw it get to -8.5 on Dec. 29. But the number started to move in favor of the Commanders late Monday as word was that the Eagles would be resting players. The game went to -7.5, and then reopened -7.0 on Dec. 30. It stayed at that number all day when it dropped to -6.0, then started to really drop to -5.5, -4.5, and -3.5. When bookmakers have to drop lines by a full point immediately it means there is significant volume being bet on the dog. 

The total opened 42.5 and has dropped to 38.5 as of Wednesday afternoon 12/31. 

Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers

What could be the game of the weekend in the Niners and Seahawks has a curious line move in favor of the road team which surprised me. Especially with the 49ers coming off an impressive win on Monday night against the Chicago Bears.

The 49ers opened as 1.5-point home favorites, but the action has switched to the Seahawks who are now 1.5 road favorites. The total has dropped from 49.5 to 48.0.

It does appear both George Kittle and Christian McCaffrey will play Saturday. 

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NFL Week 18 Injury Report

Stay on top of the latest NFL injury news and other top NFL news here at Rotowire.