NFL Week 17 Odds Tracker: Best Odds and Line Movement

This article is part of our NFL Picks series.

NFL Odds Tracker: NFL Week 17 Odds, Over/Unders and Spreads

The goal of this article is to look at the key line moves for the week and what they mean in terms of betting. Key numbers in the NFL to watch for are 3, 7, 6, 14, and 10. When a line crosses through one of these, it warrants significant attention. 

On the totals side, the key numbers are 41, 43, 37, 44, 51, 33, 47.  

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NFL Week 17 Odds 

Week 17 NFL Lines (odds via BetMGM)

*home team in bold

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NFL Week 17 Odds Observations

• The highest spread is Patriots -12.5 at Jets and Broncos -12.5 at Chiefs
• The lowest spread is Eagles at Bills -1.0
• 7 games have a line of 7.0 points or greater
• The highest total game is Bengals/Cardinals 53.5; the lowest total game is Steelers/Browns 33.5  
• There are 10 road favorites in Week 17
• There is a heavy concentration of totals between 40.0-44.0 points
• The highest team totals are Bengals, Rams, Cowboys, Patriots, Jaguars
• The lowest team totals are Chiefs, Jets, Browns, Panthers, Vikings

NFL Week 17 Line Movement

A quarterback is the only position that can significantly move an NFL point spread, and a top-tier QB can be worth up to seven or more points. For all other positions, the impact is minimal and usually less than a single point, unless multiple players on the same unit are injured. When a unit has multiple starters out, it is often overlooked in the handicapping world. OL, DL, secondary, and WR are the units that are impacted the most. 

As we enter the final stretch of the NFL season, I will focus on more recent line movement in the write-ups, as the same teams (Rams, Seahawks, Patriots) are typically going to see the biggest moves from May until now. 

The key here is to examine line movement over the last 7-10 days and understand why the line has shifted.  Weather will also play a key factor in outdoor games and those in colder regions, so keep an eye on the totals (snow, wind, and temperatures below 40 degrees). 

Dallas Cowboys at Washington Commanders 

Unfortunately, all of the games on Christmas bring us the most line movement of the week due to quarterback issues on the home dogs. 

Commanders quarterback Marcus Mariota has an injury to his throwing hand and is listed as questionable, which means Josh Johnson is most likely going to start. 

While I focus mostly on line movement over the last 7 to 10 days, the original line was Commanders -3.5. The reopen number on 12/16 was Dallas -3.0 but the Mariota news has pushed this past the key number of 7 up to 7.5 in favor of the Cowboys. We usually see a 3 to 4 move when it goes from starter to backup, and then another 3 to 4 move when it goes from backup to the #3. 

Both teams have nothing to play for, and their defenses rank near the bottom of the league, so we figure there will be a lot of points. Focus on the Dallas team total and player props. 

Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings   

The second game on Christmas has us dealing with J.J. McCarthy's hairline fracture to his throwing hand, and Max Brosmer will get another start. The Lions originally opened as -2.5 point road favorites, and they reopened -3.5 despite their recent loss and power rating dip. Once McCarthy was ruled out, the line moved the standard 3-4 points in favor of Detroit. The Lions are now up to -7.5, which is similar to the Cowboys/Commanders movement. 

The total opened 49.5 and has plummeted to 43.0 on the Vikings quarterback news. 

Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs

This is the largest number for the Chiefs as home dogs since 1977 and one of the biggest in week line moves in history. We just saw this happen with the Seahawks and Colts that saw the Colts almost pull off the upset.

Kansas City opened -4.5 point home favorites, but the reopen had Denver at -5.5 for a full 10-point swing. The news of Gardner Minshew being out for the season and third-string quarterback Chris Oladokun starting moved the line even more to Denver -10.5 before slowing down at -13.5. 

The total opened 44.5 and reopened at 39.5 before dropping even lower to 36.5.  

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NFL Week 17 Injury Report

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